Faulty Minsk Truce Accords for Intimidated Ukraine

The road to a ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine War of 2014-15, as well as the return to peace and stability in Ukraine and the region, is troubling because of its injustice and hypocrisy.

Ukraine was hogtied and dragged to the negotiating table by three frightened countries – Great Britain, France and Germany, and the invader, perpetrator and criminal – Russia. When has a lawbreaker been summoned as an equal in negotiations regarding a settlement of its crimes against a violated country? Ukraine was also coerced into considering a pre-mature truce by the flawed opinions of pundits, analysts and others that opined it’s time for the Russo-Ukraine War to end regardless of where is the front line and for the combatants to live side-by-side peacefully. Everyone naively believes their lives will then return to normal.

On Thursday the participating parties signed another defective 13-point truce agreement, which will begin on Sunday, February 15, and Russia will surely violate this one as it did the previous truces along with other global treaties and accords that it had agreed to.

The number of countries supporting Ukraine such as USA, Great Britain, Canada and Australia has been encouraging. Sadly, the abundant press coverage and fraternity of pundits have tended to treat Ukraine and Russia equally in their coverage, going even so far as to attempt to write from the points of view of Vladimir Putin, other Russian leaders and Russian terrorists.

The news writers focused on the war, which has claimed more than 5,000 Ukrainian lives, as if it were an unrelated slice of history stemming solely from Putin’s regime rather than the national destructive mentality with its roots in Russian antiquity. The absurdity of inviting Russia to the peace talks was never addressed leading me to believe that none of the writers have ever studied the Allies’ view of their arch enemy of the time, Nazi Germany with its dictator Adolf Hitler.

Case in point from Bloomberg News: “And after marathon talks they produced a cease-fire agreement that – if implemented – might stop the fighting between government forces and pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine’s Donbas region.

“But even if it does that, the agreement does little to address the real issue at the heart of the conflict between Kyiv and Moscow: Ukraine’s future political direction.”

This narrow-minded opinion states that future political direction of the region and its independent states is based solely on Russia’s view only of Ukraine’s course. That type of thinking has also been ingrained in the capitals of the free world countries since the days of the tsars: What will Moscow do about Kyiv’s future?

Others have observed that Russia, which has denied being involved in the war even in the face of photo evidence, is winning the war with Ukraine and consequently Kyiv does not deserve lethal military aid that would enflame Russia. Actually, despite Russia’s advances, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, National Guard and volunteer battalions have been better than holding up their own against a non-plundered, well-funded Russian military machine.

In the absence of a global coalition mobilized to defeat Russia just like the world did against Nazi Germany 70 years ago, today’s leaders should at least force Russia to unconditionally cease the war that it launched and is waging without regard for its proclaimed reason for igniting it – its deceitful assertion that it is defending the language rights of Russian-speakers in Ukraine.

Twelve months ago Russia invaded without legal or moral pretext Ukraine on two fronts: southern via Crimea and southeastern via the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Consequently, there is only one issue to deal with: Russia is the guilty party and it must relent before the world can return to peace and stability. The USA, Great Britain, France and Germany must focus on resolving this crime by forcing Russia to unconditionally withdraw from Ukraine. War reparations seem to be beyond consideration today but demands for them are not without precedence.

The superfluous Minsk accords are similar to the 12-point version signed last fall. Both are intended to force Ukraine into making unjust and questionable concessions to Russia and its terrorists in Ukraine.

It calls for Ukrainian armed forces and Russian terrorists to withdraw heavy weapons and troops by the start of the ceasefire on February 15. It states that “Militant forces are to withdraw from the demarcation line established by the 19 September 2014 Minsk memorandum” without specifically stating that they must withdraw to a safe buffer zone in Russia.  

It calls for the release of prisoners of war – called hostages and detainees in the document. Supporters of Nadiya Savchenko, the Ukrainian army pilot that was kidnapped to Russia and incarcerated, and has become the subject of a worldwide defense campaign #FreeSavchenko, immediately raised hopes that she may be included in that group. While well wishes are warranted, all sides should understand that she is not the reason for the war nor the goal of the peace process but only a consequence of it. Her freedom should not take our eyes of the real goal – Russian expulsion from Ukraine.

The most unwarranted points pertain to the administrative future of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Russia’s ultimatum for autonomy for Luhansk and Donetsk was quickly quashed by President Poroshenko. He was quoted as adamantly declaring that autonomy is not under consideration and that Russian demands are unacceptable.

“It wasn’t easy – we were presented with various unacceptable conditions,” Poroshenko was quoted as saying. “We rebuffed all ultimatums.”

Answering journalists’ questions whether the autonomy of the oblasts has been discussed, Poroshenko noted that despite rigid insistence, he didn’t support the autonomy status. “Broadening of powers of the Ukrainian regions will take place solely under the constitutional amendments on decentralization. We didn't yield to any compromise on federalization,” he said.

As he did last fall, Poroshenko again agreed to review the two oblasts’ administrative structure in accordance with the Constitution of Ukraine but without specifying what will happen to them. Putin, Russian observers, some journalists and others interpreted this as meaning that the oblasts may be granted autonomy, which is illegal according to Ukrainian laws and would be dangerous for the indivisibility and territorial integrity of Ukraine. The three non-combatant countries party to the truce agreement should consider how they would react if Bavaria, Northern Ireland or Normandy unexpectedly began a war for their independence.

President Poroshenko’s position on this point, at least, was beyond reproach.

Luhansk and Donetsk have no more rights or privileges to demand independence or autonomy than do the Lviv and Ternopil oblasts or New York or California in the USA. Perhaps there should be a discussion about America-styled states-rights issues but that should be undertaken in a calm atmosphere after Russia has withdrawn to a safe region beyond the border of Ukraine and has stopped instigating local hotheads against Kyiv.

While Kyiv is officially calling Crimea occupied Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula was not mentioned in the ceasefire treaty. Has everyone forgotten about it or just temporarily shunted it aside? Leaving Crimea off the table will make it difficult to resurrect the issue of returning it to Ukraine later.

Another intolerable and offensive point in the treaty reads: “An amnesty must be introduced to prevent prosecution or punishment for those connected with events in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.” Absolutely not.

Russian terrorists – soldiers or mercenaries – who murdered, harmed and raped civilians must be brought to justice regardless of this agreement. Those who downed the Malaysian airliner must also be brought to justice. Amnesty for criminals and mass murderers must not be sanctioned.

These accords have turned Ukraine, the aggrieved victim of Russian aggression, into the criminal and forced it to agree to groundless terms to satisfy and absolve Russia.

Furthermore, the agreement offers more proof that the non-combatant participants were prepared to placate Russia at the cost of Ukraine’s interests. Ukraine was made to bear sole responsibility and culpability for being invaded by Russia.

And what is Russia’s punishment? What has it agree to do? Absolutely nothing. Moscow got away scot-free, which will certainly make its quest for world domination more audacious. The free world has been revealed as a paper tiger.

An incorrigible, unrepentant, invincible Putin and Russia will not be restrained from penetrating Ukraine with its terrorists up to the Polish border and then beyond, as many political analysts have warned.

The negotiations were still ongoing when Col. Andriy Lysenko, the Ukrainian military spokesman, announced that some 50 tanks, 40 missile systems and 40 armored vehicles have crossed overnight into east Ukraine from Russia via Izvaryne border crossing into the Luhansk region.

“The enemy continues to strengthen its forces in the most dangerous areas, especially in north-east Luhansk region and in the direction of Debaltseve,” Lysenko said, referring to a strategic transport hub that has been the focus of heavy fighting in recent weeks.

Other reports have Russian terrorists donning Ukrainian military uniforms in preparation for new battles.

The ink was still drying when the European Union indicated that in view of the ceasefire agreement they would consider relieving sanctions against Russia. A US Statement Department spokesperson also said that while in its view Russia is not absolved of its aggression, it will nonetheless look closely at the sanctions based on the truce agreement.

Just like freedom for prisoners of war isn’t a goal of the peace process, neither is the mere conclusion of a truce agreement. Ukraine’s advocates must maintain a hardline against Russia and avoid any hint of lifting sanctions against this terrorist state.

President Obama’s comment earlier this week was laudatory compared with his earlier remarks. In a one-on-one conversation Tuesday, Obama personally and rather undiplomatically warned Putin that unless an acceptable peace deal is reached in talks in Minsk, Russia will face increased costs for its invasion of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and its continued support of separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine.

Truce is a half-step toward a higher goal, which must not fall to the wayside. Ukraine and the Ukrainian people deserve peace and stability a quarter of a century into its latest attempt to build a sovereign, independent, democratic and unitary state. They also deserve a life without Russia breathing down its neck. Unfortunately, with subterfuge, sabotage, persecution, repression, murder and war, Russia has perennially violated Ukraine’s sovereignty and border.

Peace and stability will return to the region after the following points are met:

1. USA and the free world must arm Ukraine so it can subdue the Russian terrorists;

2. USA and the free world must stop intimidating Ukraine into accepting unjust terms;

3. Ukraine must not be forced to cower while the free world ponders its next steps;

4. Russia must be exposed as the terrorist state that it is;

5. Sanctions against Russia must not be lifted while Russian terrorists are on Ukrainian land;

6. Russia must be forced to unconditionally withdraw from Ukraine to a safe region in Russia far from the Ukrainian border;

7. Russia must stop instigating its hothead sympathizers against Kyiv.

Anything short of this and Ukrainians can expect more bullying and terrorism from Russia.

Draft Dodgers and Oligarchs’ War

In recent blogs, posts and tweets, I wrote about the disturbing revelation of draft dodgers in Ukraine. With their homeland in a life-and-death war with Russia, young men are using every opportunity to avoid enlisting in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, instead choosing life in the near or far diaspora as a way of saving themselves.

What was most startling about this news was that the young men come mostly from western Ukraine, the heart of patriotic, nationalistic Ukraine that in the past proudly sent its heroic boys to fight for and defend Ukraine’s sovereign independence.

I first read about Ukrainian draft dodgers on a reliable Ternopil-based news website. The local draft board had raised a warning about the high number of young men who had refused to report for military duty, despite appealing to their sense of patriotism. The official noted that the potential recruits decided to avoid the issue by hightailing to any one of the diaspora communities around the world through Ukraine’s porous border with its eastern European neighbors. From there to the USA, Canada or elsewhere is not a great complication because most families in western Ukraine have relatives in the diaspora who will be cajoled into providing them with necessary documents.

Thinking that these young men are consciously abandoning Ukraine in its time of dire need, I suggested that they should be greeted with white feathers in New York City, Chicago, Toronto or other towns.

However, a few days later I read in the same Ternopil website that the issue has not simply been escaping from Ukraine to avoid military service. Sounding somewhat akin to conscientious objectors, these unwilling conscripts were expressing their disdain for draft corruption and favoritism of the elite, while denouncing the 12-month-old war with Russia as an oligarchs’ war. I inquired with urban and rural Ternopil residents and learned that contrary to the early bravado of enlisting and fighting the heathen Russians, today young men are reluctant to enlist because, as they charged, “the oligarchs aren’t fighting, they’re only mobilizing the underprivileged.” Rural residents have even blocked draft board officials’ access to their towns and villages.

“The oligarchs aren’t going to fight, the deputies (parliamentarians) aren’t going to fight, their sons aren’t going, nobody is going. Only the children of the poor from the villages are being mobilized, those who can’t buy their way out,” an angry resident of Ostapye was quoted as saying.

This is an incredible turn of events in Ukraine, which has undergone a major political and national transformation since the second Maidan that ousted corrupt President Viktor Yanukovych and his pro-Russian band of thieves. The scorn against Yanukovych has been so vitriolic since then that the Verkhovna Rada was forced to formally retract his questionably obtained title of President of Ukraine.

The new, promising pro-Ukrainian leadership, beginning with President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk, who everyday demonstrate a high dose of patriotism and scrupulousness in running Ukraine, is not fulfilling its mandate of transparency beginning with themselves thus angering the people. It’s become a public secret that Poroshenko has not divested himself of his candy factory in Russia and ship building yard in occupied Crimea.

My airborne friend from Lviv confirmed this contempt by youth, saying draft-aged men from rural districts are not inclined to enlist when the President’s 26-year-old son is serving in parliament rather than on the frontlines of the war.

“Why is the recruit provided with clothes, footwear, equipment, flak jackets, helmet, sleeping bag, etc., by his family and village (and even the diaspora – TC)? Why are children of parliamentarians, prosecutors, judges and cops continuing to go to restaurants and drive around in jeeps costing 50-100,000 bucks?” he rhetorically asked.

Indeed, residents of one community not far from Ternopil has been sending weekly to the front lines a truck filled with food and supplies for their native sons.

Is petty and grand larceny, corruption and vice irreversibly ingrained in the Ukrainian mentality? Ukrainians continue to live by the adage why buy something when you can steal it – favors, positions, placement, laws and regulations, permits, academic grades, diplomas and draft exemptions – just like their parents and grandparents did in Soviet times.

And almost simultaneously England’s The Guardian published an article “Welcome to Ukraine, the Most Corrupt Nation in Europe.”

Its editors questioned: “While the conflict with Russia heats up in the east, life for most Ukrainians is marred by corruption so endemic that even hospitals appear to be infected. Can anyone clean the country up?”

The newspaper further observed: “Kyiv has a grand opera house, cathedrals, chain stores, sweeping central avenues, a metro, everything required to make a place look European. But it resembles a modern European capital city only in the way the Cancer Institute resembles a hospital. Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index – the most widely used indicator of corruption worldwide – rates Ukraine 142nd in the world, alongside Uganda. In the latest ranking, it fell behind Nigeria.

“Since 1991 (the year Ukraine declared its independence from the USSR), officials, members of parliament and businessmen have created complex and highly lucrative schemes to plunder the state budget. The theft has crippled Ukraine. The economy was as large as Poland’s at independence, now it is a third of the size. Ordinary Ukrainians have seen their living standards stagnate, while a handful of oligarchs have become billionaires.”

Sadly, a high level of corruption still exists in Ukraine despite three government ministers who participated in the Maidan revolution and another three who came from outside Ukraine, including one from the United States. One must believe that the government’s efforts to save Ukraine from drowning in a cesspool of vice are continuing at a hectic pace, but unfortunately they seem inadequate due to the depth of poisonous sludge that has stigmatized the people and country. And now this toxic condition threatens Ukraine’s ability to fight an already unequal war with its archenemy, Russia.

“What is most important, in my opinion, is that not one reform has been initiated, no one has been brought to justice for the crimes on Maidan, the destruction of the army, judges on the take, and so on. So a third Maidan is brewing and it will be more fearsome and cruel. The people are tolerant because of the war but at any moment this cup can overflow,” my friend observed.

He said Poroshenko and Yatseniuk must stay in Ukraine, actively pursuing reforms rather than showing off their English-language skills during jaunts to Europe and the USA.

“There are good people who continue to travel abroad for work to earn money for their families. And you can’t deny that there are enough of others who continue to undermine the army but then there were enough of them at all times,” he said.

Ukraine’s corruption crisis does not exonerate the draft dodgers or relieve them of their military obligation especially with Russia waging a war against their country; and the diaspora should not be handing out white feathers to all young men from Ukraine encountered outside of churches in the USA or Canada.

Ukraine should not be viewed through rose-colored glasses, but at the same time this internal catastrophe should not discourage Ukrainians in Ukraine and diaspora as well as the USA and other countries from supporting Ukraine’s war effort. Americans should still urge the White House and Congress to provide Ukraine with essential lethal military aid to subdue and repel Russia from Ukraine.

But needless to say, Ukrainians themselves must do more to overcome the disease of corruption. And the lion’s share of the responsibility of eliminating dishonesty rests solely with the government leaders of Ukraine, President Poroshenko and Prime Minister Yatseniuk, generally regarded as saviors of Ukraine. They must do everything possible to rid Ukraine of this blight and be worthy of the blood Ukrainians are shedding in battle with Russian terrorists.

The alternative is Maidan 3.

Will Russia Live Down Dishonor of War? –

Will the Free World Forget Its Epithets about Russia?

After more than 11 months of Russia’s war against Ukraine, it seems as if the world is getting tired of Moscow’s belligerence and defiance. Despite sanctions and condemnations, Russia is escalating its war with Ukraine, moving regular soldiers and mercenaries into the eastern and southeastern regions of Ukraine, and spreading acts of wanton terrorism westward to Kyiv.

Global leaders’ commitment to support Ukraine and sanction Russia is waning and EU partners are breaking ranks and balking at intensifying sanctions against Moscow for its latest heinous attacks against civilian sites in Mariupol and Volnovakha.

Even Ukrainians in Ukraine are apparently belittling the Russian threat against their country and forsaking the military draft. These draft dodgers, many of them from western Ukraine, have families in the free world and are seeking their assistance with exit visas.

Ukraine is left to fend for itself, without adequate lethal military aid while the United States and other countries ponder how to subdue or destroy ISIS and other similar terrorist threats. The threat that Ukraine faces today at the hands of Russia is equal to the danger that ISIS poses. The difference being that ISIS is part of a movement that has for many decades inflicted death, pain and suffering while Russia, once a partner with the free world in defeating Nazi Germany, and recently a quasi-accepted global power worthy of a seat at the G-8 table, has only now shown its diabolic, imperial self. The free world was only caught off guard by this invasion but not the former captive nations who had been expecting this since the end of World War II.

Despite regional and global efforts to reach a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia and the adoption of the Minsk protocol, Russia continues to violate the truce agreements while blaming Ukraine for escalating the fighting. Russia has not lived up to even one of the subsequent ceasefire agreements, while continuously attacking, killing Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, and sending numerous convoys filled with dubious cargo into Ukraine.

One day, Russia’s war in Ukraine will come to an end, like all wars do eventually, and the free world will begin lining up to shake Russian leaders’ hands, invite them to the table and otherwise partner with Moscow in a host of international initiatives. NATO has said that it wants to restore good relations with Russia even before the blood dries on its hands.

However, the record stands and the free world’s greater and lesser condemnations have been preserved for all generations to read or hear thanks to digital technology and the Internet. Future generations will be able to witness at a distance what Russia did in 2014 and beyond, who denounced it, and who stood by ambivalently.

The United Nations Security Council has been the forum for such discussions about Russian aggression and Russian Permanent Representative Igor Churkin’s ludicrous denials and equally absurd accusations that the war has been Ukraine’s fault. The UN was also the venue for passionate expressions of support for Ukraine by its allies and friends.

Here are a few excerpts of support for Ukraine:

Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the UN Ambassador Yuriy Sergeyev, January 21:

It is almost a year when in February-March of 2014 the Russian Federation manipulated with the UN basic principles – the right for self-determination and the right to protect – in order to create a fake legal pretext to invade Ukraine.

As a result the Russian Federation occupied and then annexed a part of the sovereign territory of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and city of Sevastopol.

Sooner or later the Russian Federation will be taken to justice for this particular crime of aggression against Ukraine.

As of today the Russian Federation continues its military aggression in Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine by sending military units to our territory, delivering heavy armaments to the local terrorist groupings, training, equipping and financing mercenaries, waging information war.

So-called “DNR” and “LNR” under direct supervision and control of the Russian Federation consciously and deliberately conduct terrorist attacks on the territory of Ukraine, aimed at the intimidation, manslaughter and severe injuries to the civil population, capture of hostages and state administrative buildings, fuelling of military conflict.

This joint Russia - “DNR”- “LNR” aggression against Ukraine is aimed at forcing my Government to change the constitutional and territorial order, undermining territorial integrity and political sovereignty of Ukraine.

Basically, this is exactly what the aggressor aspires to.

To stop the reforms.

To prevent Ukraine from transforming into a modern European democratic state.

Each day over the past year has been a trauma for the Ukrainian people. On the June 8, militants of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic tortured and killed 8 priests and parishioners of the Protestant Church in the Ukrainian city of Slovyansk. On July 17, a Russian missile brought down Malaysian MH17 flight aircraft in the sky over Donbas, killing 298 innocent people from 17 countries. On January 13, terrorists fired at a passenger bus near the Ukrainian town of Volnovakha despite the declared ceasefire, killing 13 and wounding 15 Ukrainian civilians.

Ongoing investigation of this tragic terrorist attack against civilians near Volnovakha and relevant conclusions of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission prove that the shelling was carried out from the north-north-eastern areas currently occupied by the illegal armed groups.

Let me express Ukraine’s appreciation of this Council’s strong condemnation of the terrorist act near Volnovakha.

My country wages a war against terrorism. It fights at the forefront for the universal values such as freedom, sovereignty and democracy.

Since signing of the Minsk agreements in September 2014 the Russian side has significantly mounted its military presence in Donbas (over 8,000 Russian regulars, 180 tanks, 570 APC, over 140 artillery systems, over 70 GRAD systems etc.) and filled the region with most sophisticated heavy weapons (including deadly TOS-1 Buratino systems).

What is this distinguished members of the Security Council if not an aggression?

We draw again the attention of the Security Council to the fact that the illegal armed groups intensify their attacks and shelling after receiving reinforcements from the territory of the Russian Federation, including in the form of the Russian so-called “humanitarian convoys”.

We denounce provocative statements by Russian officials, who tried to shift responsibility for violations onto Ukraine including those Russian delegation brought today to the Security Council.

 

Even despite intensification of foreign aggression Ukraine remains fully committed to peaceful settlement of the crisis, which should be based on the Minsk agreements and full respect of territorial integrity, sovereignty and political unity of Ukraine. We have twice initiated the ceasefire and unilaterally adhered to it.

Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the UN Ambassador Yuriy Sergeyev, January 23:

70 years ago the Auschwitz – a major site of the Nazi so called “Final Solution to the Jewish question” – was liberated. However recent incidents have highlighted the fact that the scourge of anti-Semitism is on the rise today. We must unite our efforts to put an end to the intolerance and hatred instilling fear among Jews and members of other minorities around the world.

Ukraine does not and will never tolerate anti-Semitism, xenophobia and intolerance on the basis of race, descent, national or ethnic origin. The Government is doing its utmost to combat discrimination and intolerance in all its forms and manifestations. Ukraine’s law enforcement authorities promptly and adequately react to any manifestation of anti-Semitism. In recent years, a number of important steps have been taken to foster our efforts in this sphere:

•         the Security Service of Ukraine established a special Department for combating xenophobia and anti-Semitism; a similar unit was established at the Ministry of Interior of Ukraine;

•         the Law of Ukraine on the Principles of Combating and Preventing Discrimination adopted in accordance with the international obligations of Ukraine is being fully implemented by the Government of Ukraine. The Law provides for legal instruments of preventing and combating any form of discrimination with a view to guaranteeing to the citizens of Ukraine equal terms for exercising their basic human rights and freedoms;

According to the recent statistics, the number of manifestations of anti-Semitism in Ukraine continues to decline. Occasional acts of violence toward Jews are very rare, thoroughly investigated and, as a rule, have no correlation with the ethnicity of individuals involved.

We are proud that Jews were standing shoulder to shoulder with Ukrainians during the Revolution of Dignity in Kyiv in 2013-2014 defending their dignity, rights and freedoms.

Today Jews are widely represented in the Government of Ukraine and regional authorities.

I am proud that 2459 of my compatriots were recognized as the Righteous among the Nations for saving Jews during Holocaust. Many of them - posthumously. Among them are outstanding personalities of the Ukrainian Greek - Catholic Church: Climent and Andriy Sheptyskiy.

Permanent Representative of the United States, Ambassador Samantha Power, January 21:

While this is the Council’s first session on Ukraine in 2015, it is our 28th meeting on the crisis in the last 11 months, far more than on any other situation during the same period. We keep meeting on Ukraine because, despite countless commitments made to the international community to de-escalate – here in the Council, at Geneva, Minsk, Berlin, Normandy, and elsewhere – Russia continues to choose the path of escalation and obfuscation.

In addition to occupying Crimea, Russia continues to train, equip, and fight alongside separatists in eastern Ukraine. Indeed, Russia has so consistently broken its commitments and violated its obligations not to lop off part of another country, that some here may begin to accept Russia’s behavior as an unfortunate but inevitable reality – a new normal that would be dangerous for Ukraine and dangerous for international peace and security, because complacency would reward aggression and threaten the basic rules on which our collective security rests.

The current situation is dangerous. It is dangerous because Russia continues to train and equip separatists with heavy weapons and fight by their side, in flagrant violation of the September Minsk agreement, Ukrainian sovereignty, and international law. Even as we sit here today, the separatists – trained, supplied, and supported by Russia - are launching a full-scale attack on the strategic city of Debaltseve, inside Ukrainian-controlled territory, in blatant violation of the September 19th Minsk ceasefire lines, in an attempt to gain control of a significant rail juncture. The OSCE reported yesterday that at least 30 Grad rockets hit the city on January 19th, killing three civilians and wounding twelve. The OSCE confirmed that these rockets came from the direction of the separatist-controlled city of Horlivka. And yesterday, independent media reports that separatists blew up a rail-bridge connecting the port city of Mariupol to the rest of Ukraine. Thankfully there were no casualties, but now the city must rely on northern access via Donetsk, effectively isolating it and leaving it vulnerable to separatist attacks. These moves appear calculated and strategic in nature.

Since President Poroshenko announced the unilateral “silence regime” on December 9th that brought a brief respite from the violence, separatists and the Russians who back them have carried out more than 1,000 attacks against Ukrainian positions. Since late December, Russia has transferred at least a hundred additional pieces of Russian military equipment and material to separatists. These latest transfers come atop previous transfers of hundreds of pieces of Russian military equipment to separatists since September, including tanks, APCs, heavy artillery pieces, and other military vehicles.

The current situation is dangerous. It is dangerous because Russia continues to break commitments it has made to de-escalate. Ukraine and the international community have launched several serious efforts to seek a peaceful resolution to this conflict – including through the Trilateral Contact Group, the Minsk agreement, the Normandy group, and other negotiating fora. We continue to believe that there can be no military solution, and that political negotiations are key. Yet time and again, Russia’s words promise peace while Russia’s actions make war. Time and again, President Putin has extended an olive branch in one hand while passing out Grad missiles and tanks with the other.

The current situation is dangerous. It is dangerous because Russia’s actions are directly contributing to a humanitarian crisis. With each passing day, more civilians are killed and maimed.

For every attack on civilians that makes headlines, there are dozens more – no less deadly – that go unreported. Since the conflict began, more than 10,000 people have been injured in the conflict. Nearly 5,000 people have been killed; approximately 800 of them since November, when the Council last met to discuss the Ukraine crisis. One of the attacks that did not make news occurred on January 11th. According to the SMM, mortars struck two houses in the government-held town of Hran, wounding a girl. She died of her injuries before she reached the hospital. She was three years old.

These are some of the reasons why the Russians’ most recent efforts to blame Ukraine ring so hollow. On Thursday, President Putin issued a last-minute invitation to President Poroshenko to discuss a new Russian-conceived so-called “peace plan” – a plan that would free Russia from the commitment it made in Minsk to withdraw its fighters and return control over the international border to Ukraine. The plan would seek to legitimize territorial gains made by separatists since September, as well as Russian personnel and military equipment on the territory of Ukraine.

We need to implement the peace plans we already have, peace plans Russia has signed and broken. If Russia is serious about peace, it should follow through on Minsk, which it agreed to more than four months ago. If Russia wants to end this conflict, the steps they must take are the same as they were on September 5, 2014: remove all military equipment and personnel from Ukraine; stop backing the separatists; allow unimpeded OSCE monitoring and return control of Ukraine’s international border to the Ukrainian government; and release all hostages, including those being held in Russia, such as Ukrainian pilot Nadiya Savchenko. We understand Ms. Savchenko has been on a hunger strike for nearly a month to protest her detention, and is suffering serious health problems. Yet Russia has taken none of the steps set out in Minsk.

In contrast to Russia, Ukraine has consistently taken steps to de-escalate the crisis, demonstrating measurable progress on several key commitments at Minsk and passing key reforms to reduce corruption and grant greater authority to its regions.

There is a broader reason it would be dangerous to accept Russia’s actions as the new normal. We have seen this playbook before. Before eastern Ukraine, we saw it in Crimea. And before Crimea, we saw it in the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Before Georgia, in Transnistria. The endgame in all of these Moscow-manufactured crises has been identical: to gobble up parts of neighboring countries and to create frozen conflicts. And Russia is consistently working to put these frozen conflicts under a deeper freeze. In recent weeks, for example, at the same time as Russia was flouting its Minsk agreements, President Putin was putting the finishing touches on another set of agreements – the so-called “treaties of alliance” – with de facto authorities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These treaties will compound years of violations to Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

What is frozen in these conflicts? Instability is frozen. Violations of sovereignty are frozen. Militarization is frozen. In sum, all the problems that the United Nations, and the Security Council in particular, were created to address, are frozen. If Russia succeeds in achieving its aims, if we allow this behavior to become the new normal, this will not be the last time Russia uses this well-worn playbook.

Permanent Representative of Lithuania, Ambassador Raimonda Murmokaitė, January 21:

Mr. President, I believe no one in this room has any doubts that a country under attack would do its utmost to protect itself.  In the face of aggression, it is the inherent right of each and every state to defend its soil and its people. It is exactly what Ukraine is doing: defending itself in the face of the ongoing attacks against its unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.  

In spite of the many calls by the international community to close its borders to the illegal flows of arms and foreign fighters, Russia’s borders remain wide open to the flow of deadly weaponry and soldiers of fortune.

Here’s a typical  excerpt from the January 16 report by OSCE SMM: "The SMM saw three unmarked trucks towing three D-30 122mm Howitzers on the southern edge of Donetsk city travelling west past a “DPR”-controlled checkpoint. Two unmarked T-80 battle tanks were seen by the SMM travelling south - east in Makiyivka (5km east of Donetsk, “DPR”-controlled). The SMM observed a convoy of 21 military-style Ural and KAMAZ trucks, also unmarked, heading south on a highway near Starobesheve (45km south of Donetsk, “DPR”-controlled). Four of the trucks carried what appeared to be communication equipment, while the remaining trucks were covered.”

And where on earth - but for Russia’s continued support- can a rag tag bunch of militants get the millions needed to buy all that heavy weaponry and machinery? Especially in an area where local inhabitants are said to starve and local hospitals can't even buy bread for their patients?

So much for Russia’s claims it is not a party to this conflict. The war in eastern Ukraine is not a civil war - but a calculated and systematic attempt to destabilize Ukraine, a foreign-sponsored war.

Backed by sophisticated weaponry including Grads, artillery systems, modern tanks, armored personnel carriers, and an influx of foreign mercenaries, the militants continue their barrage of deadly attacks.

While every defensive move by Ukraine is blasted by the Russian propaganda as ceasefire violations, Russia has never even once condemned or disowned the illegal and lawless separatist militants.

On the contrary.  Russia’s intentions to rewrite the Minsk agreements in a way that would legitimize and accept the territorial gains achieved by the militants speaks to Kremlin’s wholehearted support for those criminals.

Lithuania rejects all calls to renegotiate the terms of the ceasefire. The agreed parameters of the ceasefire already exist and must be respected.  We urge all sides, in particular Russia, to engage and fully implement Minsk agreements in their entirety and without any further delay.

My delegation firmly supports Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, and will not recognize the illegal annexation of Crimea. We urge the Minsk signatories to spare no effort in seeking a peaceful solution to this crisis. We urge Russia in particular to embrace the fundamental principles enshrined in the UN Charter and put an end to its destabilizing, expansionist and revanchist policies in the region, including Ukraine, Moldova, and South Caucasus, where, contrary to Russia's commitments under the 2008 August and September Agreements, it is pursuing the annexation of Georgia’s Abkhaz and Tskinvali regions under the guise of the so-called treaties on alliance and strategic partnership with.

Permanent Representative of Lithuania, Ambassador Raimonda Murmokaitė, January 26:

The bloodiest conflict in Europe since the Balkan wars is taking place even as we speak. Last Wednesday in this hall the Security Council members once again expressed concern and urged all parties to the conflict, including Russia, to return to the Minsk agreements and ensure their prompt and full implementation in order to prevent even more destruction and bloodshed.

Alas what we saw over the weekend was more deadly shelling, more destruction, more human tragedy caused by the Kremlin’s unbridled mercenaries, including the deadly attack against Mariupol which this Council failed to condemn because Russia put protecting the militants above condemning the perpetrators.

After 29 open briefings and no progress on the ground it is hard not to sound repetitive. More than five thousand dead, some 11000 injured and about 1.5 million displaced, - such is the cost of Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine.  Almost 50 000 fled their homes since 14 January this year. At least 262 people were killed between 13 and 21 January alone.  Last week again 75 to 115 shelling attacks against the Ukrainian positions took place every day. 

The Donetsk airport which the Kremlin-sponsored militants captured last week, was pounded to rubble by months of attacks, causing destruction seen only in the worst of wars. 550 square kilometers of land have been captured by the illegal militants since the beginning of the ceasefire. Such are the realities of what we continue to call a ceasefire.

Just like the breaches of the 1991 Alma Ata Declaration, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the 1997 Agreement between Russia and Ukraine on the presence of the Russian Black Sea fleet, the 1997 Treaty on friendship, good-neighborliness and cooperation between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, the Geneva statement, and the Berlin joint declaration, the Minsk agreements are just another casualty of Russia’s aggression against neighboring Ukraine. 

Last Saturday Ukraine suffered the second deadliest single incident on its soil since the downing of MH17 in July 2014. Some 30 people killed and about 90 wounded during the shelling of the city of Mariupol. In the preceding days, the self-proclaimed boss of the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic” Zahkarchenko had repeatedly stated his disdain for the ceasefire: "There is no ceasefire. We will fight. I promise." "There will be no more ceasefires and rotations, he said.

And yet, in spite of the obvious, Russia continues to blame Ukraine for ceasefire violations, including the Mariupol attack. Anti-Ukrainian rhetoric is not abating. Last week in this hall we heard the long debunked myths of "the junta", "the coup", "fascist Ukraine", and "oppression of Russian speakers" being once again resuscitated and put into use. For a year now, aggressive anti-Ukrainian propaganda has been used to brainwash, confuse, distract and obfuscate.

The international community should not, must not give in to these obfuscations.  Therefore let me ask once again. How can a bunch of illegal militants expand their offensive, continue capturing territory, and threaten carrying out attacks on three fronts? How can  a bunch of illegal militants without external trade ties, without income or budget,  amass hundreds of  armored combat vehicles, artillery systems, and rocket launchers, all those Tochka-Us, Grads, Uragans, and Buratinos?  How can they afford modern tanks, each of which costs at least 4 million dollars? How can they claim their own air fleet? How can hundreds of Russian soldiers be dying on Ukraine's soil if they are not even there?

How come hundreds of Russian mothers receive the dead bodies of their sons in Cargo 200 from a conflict to which Russia claims it is not a party? How come that in spite of the devastating lawlessness and countless crimes committed by the separatist militants and registered in the reports by OHCHR, Russia has not even once, not even mildly condemned the perpetrators?

Life in eastern Ukraine may have been far from perfect due to long years of neglect by the successive governments. And yet the local inhabitants, many of them Russian speakers had homes to return to after work, had their daily lives and their daily bread. Thanks to the Kremlin's decision to "protect" them, they now have no homes, no jobs, no income, may have lost their dear ones- or may be dead themselves. Russia's war, Russia's proxies and the abysmal lawlessness they imposed that brought destruction, displacement, and deaths to the region.

The onus is on Russia to put an end to this senseless war by ending support to illegal armed groups operating in the east of Ukraine, accepting  international monitoring of the Ukrainian-Russian border, withdrawing its troops and weaponry from eastern Ukraine, ensuring the release by the illegal militants of all illegally detained persons, including Nadia Savchenko, ending manipulations of humanitarian assistance, and reaffirming its respect for Ukraine's sovereignty, independence, unity, and territorial integrity. The international observers, including the UN and OSCE monitoring missions must be provided full and unconditional access to the whole territory of Ukraine, including Crimea. Their reporting is indispensable to get the facts straight.

TC: Today the world knows the true image of Russia and its penchant for re-subjugating the former captive nations and perhaps the world because of its very visible war against Ukraine. The world knows but how long will it remember; when will it forget; and when will the first national leader shake his or her Russian counterpart’s hand.

After the Holocaust, Jews burned into their souls a commandment for future generations: “Never Forget; Never Forgive.” Russia deserves no less than Nazi Germany.

Letter from Ukraine: Victory will be Ours!

A couple of days ago I received the latest email from my soldier friend in Lviv. He began his military training in the “old” days and ultimately served in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He is a retired airborne officer with the rank of major. His letters have been filled with patriotic observations and hope as well as condemnations of Ukraine’s enemies – domestic and foreign. In the subject line of his email he wrote: “Victory will be ours!”

He wrote, according to my translation:

Today we were at the Lviv military hospital, visited my graduate “Cyborg” (Ukrainian troops defending the Donetsk airport were called cyborgs by the Russians) as well as our and other soldiers, it’s a miracle. What an indomitable spirit and a will to be victorious; though they seem so young, they’re already toughened and scorched by war.

Побували сьогодні у Львівському військовому шпиталі, провідували свого випускника “КІБОРГА”, наш та й інші воїни, просто чудо. Настільки незламний дух та воля до перемоги, хоча, здавалось такі молоді, та вже такі загартовані та обпалені війною.

In the 11 months of the Russo-Ukraine War of 2014, Ukrainians serving in the volunteer brigades, the National Guard and the regular Armed Forces have shown boundless determination in their unequal fight to save sovereign Ukraine from the ravages of invading Russian soldiers and mercenaries – all terrorists. Earlier this month Russians destroyed a commuter bus, killing a dozen civilians, and overnight they shelled buildings, schools and daycare centers in Mariupol, killing dozens. Both attacks launched hashtags #IamVolnovakha and #IamMariupol.

For me, nothing good shines for “rashtsi” (a contemporary combination of Russians and Nazis) with their demonic fuehrer Putler.

If only our national and military leaders stopped stealing and at long last initiated real reforms primarily in judicial and law enforcement systems, then our situation would develop faster.

And so, things are heading toward a very terrifying third Maidan.

Як на мене, нічого доброго не світить “рашці” разом з їх біснуватим “фюреромм путлером”.

Ще би наші керівники держави та Армії перестали красти, та почали б вже накінець реальні реформи в першу чергу судової та правоохоронної систем та справа пішла би швидше.

А так все іде до третього дуже грізного МАЙДАНУ.

Expectations about a third Maidan have been circling in several quarters in Ukraine since the election of Petro Poroshenko and formation of the new Verkhovna Rada. Ironically, the cause of the next Maidan will not be exclusively Russia and its henchmen in Ukraine but the current pro-Ukraine government. Ukrainians’ patience has worn thin with its leadership. President Poroshenko and Prime Minister Yatseniuk have been criticized for not instituting comprehensive reforms fast enough, arresting pro-Yanukovych crooks who plundered Ukraine and escaped, and other transgressions.

Recent history of Ukraine has shown that it is sadly plagued with corruption, graft and other vices. Shortly after Ukraine declared its independence, Yuriy Shukhevych, the son of Roman Shukhevych-Taras Chuprynka, commander of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), visiting the USA, commented on this national affliction by comparing the government, parliament and national institutions to a trough. “The trough remains the same but only the pigs have changed,” said Shukhevych, who had spent 30 years in a Soviet Russian prison for being the unrepentant son of his father.

Such a sorry state exists today across the nation, from the summit of national leadership to the village square. Ukrainians cannot expect their country to evolve if their leaders don’t forsake graft but also if they don’t cease their petty thievery and bribery.

Well, we are hoping for the best and preparing for the worst because the damn Russians have considerably strengthened and increased their military formations in eastern Ukraine and along the border and Crimea. What they have in mind does not require a great deal of guessing, but they will definitely take one on the jaw.

Glory to Ukraine!

Ну а ми надіємось на краще, та готуємось до гіршого бо кляті москалі значно посилили та збільшили свої військові угруповання на сході України та вздовш кордону та Криму . Що в них на думці гадати особливо і не потрібно, но по зубах отримають однозначно.

СЛАВА УКРАЇНІ!

My friend’s descriptions and prognoses of Russia’s war versus Ukraine are not reassuring. But the nation can take solace in the resolve of its soldiers to fight the good fight against Russian aggression.

In the wake of the murderous Russian bombardment of civilian locations in Mariupol, enlistment numbers in the Ukrainian army increased. And there have been numerous accounts of Ukrainian officers and soldiers who, as the saying goes, took one for their comrades. This week I read of a military funeral for an officer who threw himself on a grenade to save his soldiers.

Russia’s war with Ukraine is escalating with the mobilization of regular Russian troops and mercenaries in Ukraine and on its border. The free world sees what is happening but is apparently paralyzed by its uncanny fear of Russia and Putin. Russia’s war with Ukraine is fueled by the Kremlin’s vast military-industrial complex while Ukraine is left to fend for itself and defend Europe with its army and blood.

Bravery, heroism and uncommon valor will inspire the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the nation at this crucial time in Ukraine’s history. But that’s only part of what Ukraine needs to subdue Russia and force it to withdraw from Ukraine.

For victory to be truly Ukraine’s, as my friend wrote, Ukraine also needs so-called lethal military aid from the United States and NATO. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) issued such a timely demand on January 22, in which he said: “It is time for the President to demonstrate America’s own spirit of resolve by providing Ukraine the lethal military assistance it needs to defend itself. Failing to do so would be an unmistakable sign of weakness not only to Putin, but to potential aggressors around the world.”

Finally, the Ukrainian nation needs leaders who are not only pro-Ukrainian but also law-abiding, honorable, trustworthy and selfless. If the nation is ready to die in battle against Russian invaders, then its leaders should be worthy of its sacrifice. 

ALERT: Congress Seeks to Free Nadiya Savchenko

Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ), in cooperation with the Congressional Ukrainian Caucus, has drafted a “Dear Colleague” letter to members of the House of Representatives demanding the release of imprisoned Ukrainian fighter pilot and political prisoner Nadiya Savchenko. Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI) has also signed the letter.

The signatories expect the letter to be sent to Secretary of State John Kerry to urge the White House to publicly condemn the illegal detainment of Savchenko and request her immediate release from Russian imprisonment.

Savchenko was seized in Ukraine during the Russo-Ukraine War of 2014 by Russian soldiers, kidnapped to Russia and imprisoned. She is the focus of a global awareness campaign for her freedom that seeks to raise 1 million #FreeSavchenko tweets.

The Ukrainian National Information Services has disseminated Pascrell’s letter to its friends and supporters, urging them to request their elected officials in the House of Representatives to sign on to this letter. Requests/letters to your Representatives may be e-mailed directly by using the House website at: http://www.house.gov/representatives/ . The deadline is January 22.

Pascrell wrote in this letter:

In advance of Global Free Nadiya Savchenko Day on January 26th, please join me in urging Secretary Kerry to intensify his public condemnation of Nadiya Savchenko’s illegal imprisonment by Russia.

It has been over seven months since Nadiya Savchenko, a former Ukrainian Air Force pilot, Iraq War Veteran, Member of Ukraine’s Parliament and delegate to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, was captured by Russian-backed militia in southeastern Ukraine and brought to Russia. Since being transnationaly abducted, Savchenko has been accused of helping kill two Russian journalists and held in isolation while she awaits her day in Russian court, which has been delayed.

As a result of the delay, Savchenko has been on a hunger strike for over a month while in Russian prison. These actions are a clear violation of her human rights and international standards according to clause 5 of the September 5, 2014, Minsk Protocol, which called for the immediate release of all unlawfully detained persons.

Savchenko has become a rallying point in the Ukrainian community and deserves our support. If you have any questions or you would like to sign on, please contact Dylan Sodaro in my office at 5-5751 or Dylan.Sodaro@mail.house.gov by COB Thursday, January 22.

The letter to Secretary Kerry reads as follows:

We write to urge you to strongly condemn Russia’s transnational abduction and the subsequent unlawful detention of Nadiya Savchenko, former Ukrainian Air Force pilot, Iraq War Veteran, member of Ukraine’s Parliament and delegate to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, and do everything in your power to secure her immediate release.

On June 18, 2014, Ms. Savchenko was captured by pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine while carrying out her duty to defend her country. Eventually, she was transported to Russia, illegally detained under unsubstantiated charges, subjected to numerous interrogations by Russian authorities and denied access to her counsel. These actions are a clear violation of her human rights and international standards according to clause 5 of the September 5, 2014, Minsk Protocol, which called for the immediate release of all unlawfully detained persons. Subsequent to Russia’s actions and the decision to extend her arrest, Ms. Savchenko entered a hunger strike. We are deeply concerned for Ms. Savchenko’s health and wellbeing, as she is in solitary confinement and has been denied urgently-needed medical attention and communication with her legal counsel.

Russia’s actions betray their previous commitments and have derailed good faith efforts to de-escalate the crisis in Ukraine. It is imperative you utilize all diplomatic efforts to ensure the safety of Ms. Savchenko’s life and other illegally imprisoned Ukrainians immediate release. We respectfully urge you to intensify your public condemnation of her illegal imprisonment by Russia, and demand that she and the other illegally imprisoned Ukrainians be freed.

For the sake of Nadiya Savchenko, contact your representative to support this effort. Please also use the hashtag #FreeSavchenko to raise awareness about her illegal imprisonment by Russia.

X-Captive Nations Must Unite vs. Russian Imperialism

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine one week after the conclusion of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia, and the ensuing Russo-Ukraine War of 2014 have demonstrated that none of the former captive nations of Russia are safe from the Kremlin’s never-ending quest to restore its empire, prison of nations and the iron curtain.

News of Russia’s hurried militarization, pronouncements of a right to defend itself at all costs and retake the former captive nations, and numerous sorties over European countries beyond the Baltics have given rise to real concerns in eastern European capitals that their future is at stake. Russia’s newly revised military doctrine has also lead to sobering fears about Russians at their doors in countries that border Russia to the west and east.

What are the former captive nations to do? With NATO immersed in a deep re-analysis of the mission that it was precisely mandated to undertake at the end of World War II – to defend the free world against Russian imperialism, the alliance is not building confidence in the captive nations. The logical question is if the aggressor has clearly not changed, why then should NATO’s mission change?

Vladimir Putin’s Russia is escalating its war against Ukraine while setting its sights on Baltic and east European countries – and beyond. It has stationed 800 servicemen from its Northern Fleet in Alakurtti within 50 kilometers of the Finnish border, with the rest of the fleet to be deployed soon, according to announcement by Commanding Admiral Vladimir Korolev of the Russian navy on January 13.

At full force, Russia’s Northern Fleet consists of some 3,000 ground troops trained for combat in Arctic conditions, along with 39 ships and 45 submarines. Its arrival in Murmansk follows Russia’s decision last year to create a united command for all of its units designated with protecting Russia’s interests in the country’s northern regions.

“In 2015, the Defense Ministry’s main efforts will focus on an increase of combat capabilities of the armed forces and increasing the military staff in accordance with military construction plans. Much attention will be given to the groupings in Crimea, Kaliningrad and the Arctic,” Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov said, according to Russia’s Sputnik news agency. 

Leaders of the former captive nations fully understand the danger that Russia presents to their independence and sovereign existence. They are on the record as stating that Russia is a terrorist state that has not lived up to any agreement that it has signed. They meet regularly to coordinate their security and defense. The Baltic Review reported on such a meeting held earlier this month:

“This year, President Bronisław Komorowski of Poland is also invited to take part in the traditional meeting the main purpose of which is to discuss regional security measures.

“The Lithuanian head of state together with Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Latvian President Andris Bērziņš and Polish President Bronisław Komorowski reviewed the implementation of decisions adopted at the NATO Summit in Wales as well as energy, information and cyber security issues.

“ ‘Our countries have a shared goal – secure and economically strong region. We will only achieve this goal by standing together in the implementation of long-term collective defense measures and strategic projects aimed at ensuring the region’s energy self-sufficiency,’ the President (of Lithuania) said.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine delivered a wake-up call on defense spending to the small Baltic States.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are on heightened alert as Russian military planes and warships circle their airspace and sea borders on a daily basis in what they call “unprecedented” Russian activity.

Sven Mikser, Estonian Defense Minister, recently concluded the biggest military procurement in his country’s history, worth 138 million euros ($160 million). The deal buys 44 CV90 combat vehicles and six Leopard tanks from the Netherlands. It comes a month after Mikser agreed a contract worth $46.2 million with the US to buy 40 Stinger missile systems. Estonia also has an order for self-propelled guns in the works.

Latvia bought 123 combat vehicles for $55.5 million from Britain in August and in November agreed to a $4.6 million deal with Norway for 800 Carl Gustav anti-tank weapons and 100 trucks.

Lithuania bought a $39.3 million GROM air defense system from Poland in September and a month later said it would spend $18.5 million on a fresh supply of Javelin anti-tank missiles from the US.

That brings the price tag for Baltic military spending on hardware to $347 million euros in six months.

Leading the political fight against Russia’s aggression is President Dalia Grybauskaite of Lithuania, an unabashed critic of Putin and Russia’s imperialism, and ardent supporter of Ukraine, who is often photographed at a military shooting range.

Grybauskaite has noted that Ukraine is not just fighting for its own sovereignty, but it is defending the sovereignty of all European nations. Her acerbic denunciation of Putin’s war is without comparison in eastern Europe.

During an interview with German news magazine Focus in June Grybauskaite said the Russian despot “uses nationality as a pretext to conquer territory with military means. That’s exactly what Stalin and Hitler did.”

Grybauskaite elaborated:

“Russia is at war against Ukraine and that is against a country which wants to be part of Europe. Russia is practically in war against Europe,” she said, adding that she is prepared to “take up arms” in the instance Russia attacks

Grybauskaite is convinced that if Russia is not repulsed from Ukraine, Putin will sweep across the Baltics, central Europe and northern Europe.

“The situation is still deteriorating. Russian troops are still on the territory of Ukraine. That means that Europe and the world are allowing Russia to be a country which is not only threatening its neighbors but is also organizing a war against its neighbors. It is the same international terrorism as we have in Iraq and Syria.

“In Ukraine, it is a real war. The European Union and most of the leaders in the world are trying to talk about it as if it is not war but some kind of support of terrorist elements. We saw Crimea. In the very beginning, it was green men, and it became Russian military. Now it is the same in eastern Ukraine. And I’m sure that it is not the last territory where Putin is going to demonstrate his powers.

“If we will be too soft with our sanctions or adapt sanctions but not implement them, I think he will go further trying to unite east Ukraine with south Ukraine and Crimea. He recently said that in two days he is capable to reach Warsaw, the Baltic States, and Bucharest. So that is an open threat to his neighbors.

“If he will not be stopped in Ukraine, he will go further.”

Grybauskaite’s colleagues in Riga and Tallinn are equally troubled by Russian saber rattling. In the Baltic States, Russia’s goal is to undermine local trust in NATO’s collective defense, to destabilize internal politics, provoke local Russians to seek Moscow’s intervention, and ultimately to cause the countries to give in to Russian interests. As for military provocations in the Baltics, Moscow sees them not so much as an invasion, but rather a matter of taking back what rightfully belongs to Russia. Some feel the same scenario used in Ukraine is already unfolding in the Baltic countries.

Archbishop Gintaras Grusas of Vilnius, president of the Lithuanian bishops’ conference, observed that Lithuania is in the front line and Russia has made its intentions clear. He believes that Russian aggression against Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia is possible, and appealed to Western Catholics to be better informed about the situation.

“While we feel NATO’s support, we know the front could move forward if the international community fails to stand firm,” said Archbishop Grusas of Vilnius. “What isn’t fully realized in the West is that the information and propaganda war which preceded the military action against Ukraine is very much underway here, too. There’s a high degree of tension, and everybody here knows how dangerous the situation has become. The three Baltic states are relatively small countries, which can be pressured more easily than Ukraine,” Archbishop Grusas told the Catholic News Service.

“Russia is a great country, with great people. But the desire to promote that greatness, perhaps with new empire-building, runs deep in the Russian mindset under President Vladimir Putin. They’ve expressed a belief they have a right to lands they once ruled.”

The Baltics are hoping for at least an increased NATO presence so that Moscow would think twice about invading them. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius explained that he does not have any reason to doubt the security guarantees which were provided by NATO and the EU but he added that that’s not a reason to relax.

“Freedom and peace are not a given. They are something that should be defended when the time comes,” Linkevicius said. “We are not talking about militarization, about big divisions of NATO troops. I am talking about a sensible level of presence which does not exist at all right now.”

A few days ago, Lithuania’s Defense Ministry announced that it will be distributing a manual that advises its citizenry how to behave if Russian tanks stream across their borders. “Keep a sound mind, don’t panic and don’t lose clear thinking,” the manual advises Lithuanians, according to Reuters. “Gunshots just outside your window are not the end of the world.”

Reuters said the manual reads like a guide to non-violent, passive civil resistance. It urges Lithuanians to participate in demonstrations and strikes. The manual even tells workers to engage in a kind of passive sabotage to crash the economy and make life hard on the Russians by “by doing your job worse than usual.”

The country’s Defense Minister Juozas Olekas told Reuters: “The examples of Georgia and Ukraine, which both lost a part of their territory, show us that we cannot rule out a similar kind of situation here, and that we should be ready,”

Distrust of NATO’s promises is not unfounded. Despite what up to now has been a solid EU front in support of sanctions against Russia, seven countries in the European Union have said they will support ending them. Austria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, France, Italy, Hungary and Slovakia are reportedly in agreement on the matter. Such a crack in the bloc will only encourage Russia not to fear the European paper tiger.

Fortunately, in an op-ed article in The Times of London, President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron declared their commitment and “enduring mission” to fight the growing terror threats and stand up to Russian aggression against Ukraine.  They said they will face Russia’s aggressive stance in Ukraine since the failure to challenge Moscow may lead to instability as Putin continues to ignore international law. Their position allays some anxieties but only if the US and UK maintain their position.

Some Western pundits also see this threat but not nearly enough of them. Bloomberg news wrote: “Vladimir Putin undermines NATO members by stirring up trouble with Russian minorities in Estonia and Latvia, and with Russia's Kaliningrad enclave between Poland and Lithuania. Recent airspace encounters show Russia’s willingness to test NATO’s capabilities.”

Russia’s militarization also foresees its development of the capability to threaten several neighbors at once on the scale of its present operation in Ukraine, according to Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges.

Hodges, commander of US Army forces in Europe, told Reuters last week that an attack on another neighbor does not seem imminent because Moscow appears to have its plate full in Ukraine for now.

But that could change within a few years, Hodges said, when upgrades sought by Putin would give Russia the ability to carry out up to three such operations at the same time, without a mobilization that would give the West time to respond.

“Right now, without mobilizing, I don’t think they have the capacity to do three major things at one time. They can do one thing, I think, in a big way without mobilizing. But in four to five years, I think that will change,” Hodges said. “Certainly within the next four to five years they will have the ability to conduct operations in eastern Ukraine and pressure the Baltics and pressure Georgia and do other things, without having to do a full mobilization.”

In view of the latest wave of Russian aggression against the former captive nation, the joint defense concept charted by Yaroslav Stetsko and the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists in 1943 is worthy of a revival. The resulting Anti-Bolshevik Bloc of Nations (ABN) was created as a coordinating center for the liberation of captive nations of the Soviet Russian empire.

The former captive nations may have another opportunity to resuscitate such a structure. According to the Latvian Foreign Ministry, plans are under way to convene in May the next session of the Eastern Partnership summit in Riga that is aimed at intensifying ties between the EU and six of the other former Soviet republics – Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine. The participants would be remiss if they didn’t form a regional security and defense organization along the lines of ABN or NATO that would include a well-armed and funded multi-national rapid deployment force.

Not surprisingly, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin had also alluded to the imperativeness of such a far-reaching coalition. Outraged by the Russian invasion of his homeland, Klimkin suggested soon after President Petro Poroshenko’s visit to Canada and the United States last fall the creation of a Coalition of Freedom to defend democracy and Western values in a troubled world.

“It is about security for everyone,” said Klimkin during an exclusive Fox News interview on the eve of the 65th UN General Assembly. “If someone in this interchangeable and intertwined world cannot feel secure, how can US citizens here feel secure?”

Klimkin explained then that Ukraine is confronting a threat any nation can face, adding “we need a network of security.” His Coalition of Freedom would consist of “countries which are committed to freedom, to democratic values, where we are not talking about spheres of influence, but the values and real interests of democratic countries.”

I applauded his decision in my blog at the time.

Undeniably, the former captive nations are being threatened by Russia and cannot trust their sovereign, independent existence to the whims, politics and nervousness of NATO and the free world. They must unite for their joint security and defense and to protect themselves from Russian aggression.

Je suis Charlie, Я – Чарлі, I am Ukraine, I am Crimea, I am Donbas

Indeed, the premeditated, methodical murder of a dozen journalists in their editorial office is instantaneously more shocking and incredulous than the perpetual killings during the 10-month-old Russo-Ukraine War of 2014.

In three days last week, radical Islamic terrorists perpetrated a coldblooded attack against freedom of the press, democracy, peace, Paris, France, Jews and the world’s sensibilities.

The global outrage against this bloodshed and tumultuous support for what the victims in two locations stood for was more than justified. About 3 million people by some estimates, including 40 national leaders, among them President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine, participated in Sunday’s march of unity in Paris. An inspiring manifestation of fraternity, equality and brotherhood that was tarnished by the presence of Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov. But hypocrites will always be immoral frauds.

The outpouring of support for the related issues is inspiring, historic and worthy of repetition. At its peak last Thursday evening, there were nearly 6,500 tweets per minute with the hashtag #JeSuisCharlie. As of late the following day, there had been more than 5 million tweets using that hashtag since the previous Wednesday and the subsequent reach was astronomical.

There has also been a lot of soul searching in the aftermath of the killings as masked murderers shouted “Allahu akbar” while shooting innocent people, then fleeing in a car. Everyone who was touched by this crime reflected about freedom of speech, the newsworthiness of ridiculing Mohammed and other religious symbols, and terrorism.

Sally Kohn, activist, columnist and television commentator, observed on CNN:

“As others have pointed out, in the wake of the Paris attacks we’ve conflated support for free speech with support for the actual speech in question. But while I unquestionably support the free speech rights of the KKK and ‘god hates fags’ protesters, for example, that clearly doesn’t mean I would support, never mind join in, their hateful messages. Some on the right insist that media should have to re-print Charlie Hebdo’s anti-Islam cartoons or else they're cowardly. However, this is a fundamental perversion of free speech, to say the least. There is no inconsistency between supporting free speech for Charlie Hebdo’s cartoonists and finding the content of some of their cartoons offensive and disrespectful.”

Or as Voltaire was to have said: “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.”

As civilization has come to learn in recent history, the evil of terrorism comes in different sizes and shapes but it is all the same: Senseless. Vile. Bloody.

With these murders in Paris occurring during Russia’s war against Ukraine, some social media tweets and posts sought to condemn the French government for failing to support Ukraine against Russian terror. However, with murders at Charlie Hebdo still fresh, it was not prudent to reprimand French leaders for their cold policy regarding besieged Ukraine and Russian terrorism there. It’s better to build national, popular support and consensus.

Having said that, it is appropriate for the world to remember that the Ukrainian nation is in the throes of a murderous war that Russia is waging against it. Press freedom, human rights and democracy were violated in Paris while at the same time the right to an independent national existence, sovereignty and democracy are being violated in Ukraine by a megalomaniac in the Kremlin.

Russia’s brutal, criminal behavior toward Ukraine is terrorism on a grander scale but with boredom enveloping the world’s leaders and activists, the war in Ukraine will likely not get a fair hearing. While radical Islamists were out rightly condemned for the carnage in Paris and reminded of earlier massacres, Putin and Russia are given the benefit of the doubt with evasive criticism and naïve hopefulness.

How can world leaders accept the invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea; how can world leaders condone the subsequent invasion of eastern Ukraine and seizure of Luhansk and Donetsk; and how can world leaders tolerate the murder of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, and innocent air travelers?

When will 3 million non-Ukrainians gather in any national capital to condemn Russian aggression and defend Ukrainian national rights?

These questions are as painfully real as those being asked on the Champs Elysees.

History has shown that when Ukrainian interests intersect interests’ of other countries or issues, Ukraine has been placed on the short end of the stick. Already NATO leadership has uttered hopes that Russia, which has fervently supported global radical Islam, would join in the fight against it. Radical Islam is an indisputable global danger but free world leaders would not do better by forgiving Russia, begging it to help in the fight against international radicals and betraying Ukraine.

Radical Islam is a threat to world peace and stability just like Russian terrorism is and the world doesn’t have the luxury to choose between lesser or greater evils.