Will Putin Push Russian Troops west to Kyiv, Lviv & Beyond?

The Russo-Ukraine War of 2014-17 has been going on for three years and it has resulted in the occupation of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine. Its duration so far is about half of World War II, Europe’s last continental military conflagration. So, will Vladimir Putin continue driving Russia’s military machine across Ukraine into Western Europe?

The simple answer is yes, he will, and wishing it weren’t so won’t make it so.

Russian global expansion is its historical manifest destiny – regardless of who is in the Kremlin – and trampling Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty is the means by which Moscow will rebuild its empire. After all, Russia is continuing to mobilize troops on both sides of the Ukrainian border, which doesn’t bode well for peace and stability in Ukraine and the region.

According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak, a 40,000-strong diversified Russian army has recently been formed in occupied Donbas, of which 5,000 are Russian regular troops.

Poltorak said Russia has massed about 600 tanks, 1,300 combat vehicles, 860 artillery systems and 300 multiple launch rocket systems on Ukrainian territory. Military affairs observer and member of Verkhovna Rada Dmytro Tymchuk also warned of large-scale Russia military buildup along the border with Ukraine.

“Of course, with this military build-up, it is very difficult to talk about peace, especially with those who do not wish to fulfill the Minsk agreements or is very aggressively against Ukraine,” Poltorak said in an interview with TV Channel 5.

During the past few weeks, including during Christmas observances, which was designated as a holiday truce, Russian forces and their mercenary terrorists have been attacking Ukrainian positions in eastern Ukraine, killing many defenders. Ukrainian military spokesmen have said that the assaults marked a significant escalation in deadly engagements.

With the fighting spiking, the only question that remains is when will Russia unleash the full fury of its imperial assault?

Dr. Adam Lelonek, in an article earlier this month on the Polish-language website Defence24.pl, expressed the point of view that such an expansion is inevitable because Russia will not permit Ukraine to integrate itself in EuroAtlantic structures.

However, Lelonek pointed out, Russia will not yet commence a major ground war but will rather unleash an overwhelmingly vile campaign of dirty operations meant to destabilize Ukraine and camouflage its intentions from Western capitals.

Lelonek cited Ukrainian experts and pundits who believe that while a full-blown war may not come in 2017, that doesn’t mean that Russia hasn’t already begun planning for such an eventuality. After all, he reminded readers that launching a war is not a spur of the moment idea. Wars and invasions take months if not years of preparations before soldiers are put in harm’s way.

Russia’s invasion of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea wasn’t arbitrarily done two weeks after the conclusion of the 2014 Winter Olympics. Planning began many months earlier, while free world leaders were probably busy glad-handing Putin at a conference or summit.

While Russia is busy with Syria and elections in Western Europe, Putin understands that at the present time it is a cheaper and safer option to destabilize Ukraine, dishearten the Ukrainian population, discredit the government, isolate it from the West, create a viable fifth column operation, and weaken all levels of the country to the point where Moscow can just pick up the pieces and stick them in its pocket.

According to Lelonek, Moscow’s master plan also calls for destabilizing the internal situations and foreign policies of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Polish, Belarus, Slovakia, Moldova, the Czech Republic and Germany.

As recent history shows, this operation doesn’t require an army. Destabilization could be the result of fake news, hacking, sabotaging elections, or sleeper agents. Even confusion and indecisiveness can slow down the wheels of government enough to destabilize a country.

“Western experts still seem to mostly ignore the fact that Russian plans, including military campaigns, are prepared for the long run. Scenarios for the annexation of the Crimea or military actions in Donbas were prepared long before the Revolution of Dignity, and the dismantling of the Ukrainian defense structures and infiltration of the Ukrainian state structures by the Russian secret services were being done years in advance for the benefit of the future,” Lelonek observed.

The Polish author added that Russia is also counting on a worsening of relations among Washington, Moscow and Beijing that would distract the world’s attention from Ukraine as well as the West’s ultimate fatigue and boredom with the issue of Ukraine.

Another flashpoint that will be exacerbated by Russia to destabilize Ukraine will be inciting conflicts between the Moscow Patriarchate’s Orthodox Church in Ukraine and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church as well as between the Orthodox Church and the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church.

“There is no indication of the probability of a tragedy this year, however, the majority of Ukrainian experts (theoreticians and practitioners) are nonetheless convinced that a full-scale war is only a matter of time. If Russia recognizes that it cannot stop Ukraine’s progress to the West, most likely, it will decide to apply maximum effort to destroy or seize as many resources as it can including demographic, intellectual, technological and natural,” Lelonek projected.

Andrey Illarionov, a Russian economist and Putin’s former economic policy advisor, was quoted by UA Today and channel 112 as saying that Moscow will take advantage of the interregnum in the United States to intensify provocations against Ukraine.

“This November, before and after the November 8, is the best situation for destabilization. We understand that the US presidential election is the time when neither American administration, nor the political powers in the US and Europe will care about Ukraine. The world will be focused on the developments in the US, and election results,” Illarionov said.

According to him, the world’s attention will be distracted by the US elections and inauguration, creating an ideal situation for Russia “with little or no risk to hold its campaigns in the various countries of the world.” Even a cursory review of American newspapers will reveal that the US is in such an unsafe state of flux about where are its foreign loyalties.

Illarionov reminded that Russia is capable of launching conventional and non-conventional weapons from its well-stocked arsenal against Ukraine – “Nothing can be ruled out” – in order to stop Kyiv’s westward movement.

In an interview with well-known columnist Paul Goble, Illarionov further clarified that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cannot be called a conflict, but rather it is a war. “This is not a crisis. This is a war. The war in the simplest meaning of the word,” he said.

“This is a Russian-Ukrainian war. To be more precise, this is Putin’s war against Ukraine. Most Russians do not support the war. Putin’s war against Ukraine is already a long-term one.”

I have been referring to it as the Russo-Ukraine War for a couple of years.

Like Lelonek, Illarionov also said he was sure that preparations for the war took years – at least 11 years. “Since 2003. I can say that certain questions relating to the future war with Ukraine were discussed in my presence. I didn't think the talks would really lead to a real war,” he said.

This observation must sink in for western leaders. While they were shaking hands with Putin, toasting him with Russian vodka, signing agreements, and praising his accomplishments, he was busy planning his invasion of Ukraine and other countries.

Illarionov recalled that in year 2004 preparations were already discussed for the future occupation and annexation of Crimea but were suspended during the Orange Revolution. In 2008, Russian Journal published the leaked plan of the military command “in which you will see a detailed draft project of a war against Ukraine.” Information about actions to support separatists in Ukraine began to appear in 2009, he added.

“So, they were preparing the war for a long time. The other matter is that it is a long war that has been continuing for more than 16 months. It was officially launched on July 27, 2013, by Putin's speech in Kyiv on the occasion of the anniversary of the baptism of Kyivan Rus. You can find here clear remarks about the start of the hybrid campaign, an intervention, but not a war,” Goble observed on the basis of Illarionov’s remarks.

Indeed, in the July 29, 2013, edition of The Torn Curtain 1991 newsletter, I also forecast that Putin’s arm twisting of Ukrainian leaders at that event would ultimately lead to Russia’s violent attempt to rebuild the torn iron curtain one way or another: “In Ukraine for the commemoration of Christianity of Kyivan Rus (ancient Ukraine), Putin made it a point to urge Ukraine to unite with Russia because, after all, they’re ‘one people.’ Nothing smacks of a restoration of the Russian prison of nations and the iron curtain more than that.”

Goble wrote in his current column that Illarionov believes the war won’t end in the nearest time.

Illarionov made similar observations to Paul Roderick Gregory in Forbes. The Russian pundit said Putin has already begun waging another type of war throughout Ukraine, one that is being conducted by Russian Spetsnaz (special operations) forces and KGB (now called FSB) agents and its aims is to topple the pro-Western government in Kyiv – destabilization.

The Spetsnaz’ orders include the sowing of civil unrest throughout Ukraine via strikes, demonstrations, staged incidents, and street battles. Putin’s subversive forces will also orchestrate neo-Nazi incidents with Nazi regalia and swastikas on full display. Their mandates also include the deliberate killing of Russian soldiers and of ethnic Russian civilians to prove the hatred and extremism of radical Ukrainian nationalists. These orders come from Putin himself, Illarionov said. Their mission is to create an image of intolerable chaos and loss of civil authority to justify a Russian takeover of all Ukraine. Putin’s goal is the destruction of pro-Western authority in Ukraine, the total humiliation of the West, and a makeover of the geopolitical balance.

Illarionov’s assessment is similar to that of Lelonek. Destabilize Ukraine and make it ripe for the picking.

His urgent advice to President Poroshenko of Ukraine is to place all your efforts into preserving civil order and avoid falling for the Spetsnaz provocations. In other words, the nation shouldn’t become a patsy.

Ukrainian authorities must immediately close all borders with Russia to slow the infiltration of Spetsnaz and FSB destabilization units. The American government has also advised this and is in the process of providing Kyiv a range of sophisticated border control systems.

The free world is also tasked with containing Russian expansion. Illarionov urges the West to understand Putin’s grand vision for restoring the “historic glory of Mother Russia.” He and others are convinced that if Russia is successful in re-subjugating Ukraine, the balance of power in Europe and the world would change for the worse and lead to further “restorations” of the former Soviet Union and ultimately to rebuilding the prison of nations.

So it’s merely a matter of time when Putin will unleash his hordes to reconquer Ukraine and the other x-captive nations.

Illarionov also explained to the Lithuanian Tribune that it’s not only about Ukraine. Russian laws essentially define four categories of Russians, he said: ethnic Russians, irrespective of whether they reside in or outside Russia; Russian-speakers, irrespective of their nationality; all former citizens of the Soviet Union and their offspring living in the territories formerly covered by the USSR; and former citizens of the Russian Empire (pre-1917) and their offspring living in the territories once covered by the Russian Empire.

“Such a legal base allows the Russian army to protect all the Russians listed in the law. Therefore, for the Russian side, such actions of the Russian army beyond Russian borders might seem completely legitimate,” Illarionov elaborated.

The x-captive nations appreciate the dangerous situation they are in and have been increasing their military budgets in hopes of building armed forces strong enough to counter a full-scale Russian blitzkrieg.

Russia’s thirst for new conquests or return of its empire will not be sated by President-elect Trump’s misguided belief in Putin’s wholesomeness and integrity. The free world should not hesitate to vigorously thwart Putin’s war by preparing accordingly.

Some US officials, congressmen and pundits have been warning Russia about this dangerous, destabilizing trend. They have placed their hope for a safer world on a new round of intensified sanctions against Moscow that will force it to withdraw from occupied Ukrainian regions.

As in the past, so too in the future, this generation will be asked, what did you do to oppose Russian expansion and protect the world from new colonialism?

Russo-Ukraine War of 2014-17 Continues

As Russia’s crimes mount faster than world leaders can track them, I’d like to return to the raging Russo-Ukraine War of 2014-17.

Except for Ukrainian and x-captive nations’ news media, very few western traditional or cyber media are still conscientiously reporting on Russia’s military advances against Ukraine and the defending troops’ valiant retaliations. Stories from the front have been supplanted by Russian prevarications about its invasion of Ukraine, occupation of Crimea, bombardment of Aleppo, hacking of America’s cyber infrastructure, and other visible and invisible crimes. Some of the accounts even seem to absolve Russia of any culpability for its obvious wrongdoings.

Well-intentioned, mortified and angry US officials and lawmakers are incessantly and justly demanding sanctions against Russia and its tyrant leader for hacking US political parties’ computers.

Get in line. The Russian leadership has been committing a long list of crimes for which it must be held accountable.

But back to the war that Russia launched against Ukraine in February 2014 by invading and occupying Crimea and then invading eastern Ukraine. Intense fighting is continuing, Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are being killed by regular Russian troops, mercenaries and traitors in Ukraine. Russia is still pulling military weapons across the border and positioning them for bloody shelling of Ukrainian military and non-military targets.

While the Ukrainian government has not yet adequately replied to Russia’s invasion by declaring war against Russia and expelling and arresting its diplomats in Ukraine, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its Permanent Mission of Ukraine to the UN have been doing what they can to mobilize global support for Ukraine and keep Russian feet to the coals until Moscow withdraws its military from all occupied regions of Ukraine.

The Permanent Mission, on December 14, 2016, the 42^nd anniversary of the adoption of the UN General Assembly Resolution on the definition of aggression, reminded UN member-states of Russia’s unending belligerence.

“Having illegally occupied the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol and carried out further military intervention in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the Russian Federation initiated an unprovoked military aggression against Ukraine. The Russian Federation thus has blatantly violated its international obligations and commitments as envisaged by the UN Charter, the 1975 CSCE Helsinki Final Act, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, and the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.”

Furthermore, the Ukrainian diplomats stated that Russia has not only violated the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of Ukraine – which is a significant global crime in itself, Moscow “has threatened international peace and security at large. The third year of Russia’s military aggression continues to bring pain and suffering to the people of Ukraine of all ethnic backgrounds. The total number of victims of this undeclared war in the heart of Europe exceeds 10,000.”

The Kremlin’s crimes enumerated by Ukraine at the UN are severe enough to elicit global condemnation of Russia and its leadership as well as sanctions that would ban it from the global table and isolate it from all partnerships. It is the height of folly to invite Russia, a global lawbreaker, to partner in anti-ISIS coalitions.

Ukraine’s statement noted that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs “continues to affirm, in clear and unequivocal terms, that the occupation and subsequent attempt to annex the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, as well as Russia’s illegal actions in eastern Ukraine, fall squarely under the United Nations’ definition of an act of aggression.

“Such actions constitute the most serious crime against international peace, which entails international responsibility of the Russian Federation as a state and international criminal responsibility of its senior leadership,” the Permanent Mission declared.

Indeed, while many people of goodwill belittle the goings on of the UN, nonetheless, the respected global body has a definition of aggression, which Russia has violated. And this is in addition to the UN’s official condemnation of Russia, a member of the UN Security Council, as an “occupier” of foreign lands just like Nazi Germany and other tyrannical empires were. (Read my previous blog of December 20, 2016.)

The Ukrainian statement also said the political and military leaderships of Russia bear full responsibility for the planning, preparation, initiation and waging of this aggression, “as well as responsibility for numerous human casualties, material damage and destruction.”

Indeed, Russian war reparations are well within the bounds of reasonable Ukrainian demands after Russians withdraw back to its country.

“No political, economic or military considerations can justify the treacherous Russian aggression against Ukraine. War cannot be a means of doing politics in the twenty-first century,” the statement went on to say.

The Ukrainian delegation expressed its gratefulness to the member-states of the United Nations, notably the United States, Great Britain and Canada, for their “consistent and strong support in countering Russian aggression and overcoming its consequences.”

Ukraine also called for increasing international pressure on Russia in order to stop the aggression and bring about complete withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine of “the Russian armed forces, Russia-controlled illegal armed groups and mercenaries, along with weapons and military equipment deployed in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol (Ukraine) or illegally transferred to the terrorist organizations "DNR" and "LNR", as well as to revoke all acts aimed at legitimizing the attempted annexation of the Crimean peninsula and to undertake its further de-occupation.”

“Only Ukraine’s full control over the entire length of its state border and firm guarantees of its sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence can safeguard international peace and security,” the statement concluded.

This is also the only way that the borders of the former captive nations, Europe, Canada and the United States can be secured in the face of expanding Russian threats.

The free world is maintaining sanctions against Moscow amid calls for new sanctions but Russia is not budging. In addition to ongoing transgressions against the Minsk Accords, Russia has even violated a three-day Christmas truce by escalating attacks against Ukrainian positions.

According to a report on December 27 by Col. Oleksandr Motuzyanyk, Ministry of Defense spokesperson, “The past 24 hours have shown that the adversary is not going to respect agreements on complete and comprehensive ceasefire. Since December 24, militants have continued firing on Ukrainian positions.”

Two days later at the Ukrainian Crisis Media Center, Motuzyanyk said hostilities intensified in the vicinity of Krymske in the Luhansk region. “The most active combat actions took place in far outskirts of Krymske. The enemy fired on our positions three times from weapons of armored fighting vehicles and machine guns. One armed provocation, involving the use of grenade launchers, took place in Krymske,” he said.

The Russia-backed terrorists also violated the ceasefire in Stanytsia Luhanska and to the north from Stanytsia Luhanska. All told, they violated the ceasefire six times in the Luhansk sector.

Russian mercenaries are also pulling up heavy arms. They deployed the Grad multiple-launch missile systems (truck-mounted 122 mm multiple rocket launcher) near the so-called Svitlodarsk rim at the Donbas frontline, reported UNIAN. 

“The Svitlodarsk rim remains to be a zone with never-ending shelling against our positions, and they increase and decrease in number ever and again," ATO spokesperson Col. Andriy Lysenko said.

The ceasefire in eastern Ukraine that was supposed to go into effect during this holiday season has failed, and the Ukrainian military said they are not the reason for its failure.

Motuzyanyk said Russian-backed terrorists continue to violate ceasefire in the ATO zone.

“The past 24 hours proved that the enemy does not comply with the agreements reached previously on the full and comprehensive ceasefire, starting December 24. The enemy continues to shell Ukrainian positions, which have traditionally been the hottest spots in the past weeks,” said Motuzyanyk.

“As we've been reporting, the newest ceasefire, which was supposed to go into effect on December 24, never took hold. Though fighting has been less intense this week than last, there have been significant casualties.”

By mid-February 2017, Russia will be waging war against Ukraine for three full years. Will there continue to be no end in sight? If the free world continues to interact with Russia on many levels as if nothing is happening and refrain from designating it as a pariah, criminal state, then the Russian war and Russia’s acts of terrorism will continue.

If Ukraine refuses to declare war against Russia and sever diplomatic relations with it, the free world will continue to be confused by Ukraine’s response to Russia’s aggression and the war and acts of terrorism will continue across the country.

The free nations’ 2017 New Year’s resolution must be to bring this to the attention of world leaders in order to end Russia’s criminal bloodletting in Ukraine.

UN Labels Russia ‘Occupier’ for All Generations to Know

The United Nations has officially condemned Russia, a member of the UN Security Council, as an “occupier” of foreign lands just like Nazi Germany and other tyrannical empires were.

What is significant about this resolution is that while Ukraine, the United States and a few other countries favorably inclined toward Ukraine have condemned Russia for its illegal annexation of Crimea, a resolution by the UN, a global representative body, casts a different light on this crime. Just like the albatross in “The Rime of the Ancient Mariner,” Russia, the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin have been publically stigmatized as global lawbreakers for current and future generations to see.

The international community must also appreciate that an occupier is a state that has crossed international frontiers without consideration of laws, or invaded a foreign land, and has willfully taken what it wanted.

This resolution sends a clear message to Russia and Putin that as “occupying authorities” they are responsible for the persecutions and violations of the human rights of the residents of Crimea and will be brought to justice.

The 71st General Assembly adopted on Monday, December 19, a resolution on human rights in Crimea, titled “Situation of human rights in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol (Ukraine),” which was initiated by Ukraine and supported by the UNGA Third Committee. Seventy-three UN member-states, including Ukraine, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and others backed the document, 76 abstained, and Russia plus 22 others voted against it.

The resolution cited the word “occupier” in relation to Russia’s enslavement of Crimea four times.

Most importantly, the resolution condemns “the temporary occupation of part of the territory of Ukraine —the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol (hereinafter “Crimea”) — by the Russian Federation.” It also notably reaffirmed its “non-recognition” of Russia’s unlawful annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea after a fabricated and rigged referendum.

The General Assembly called on the Russia “to take all measures necessary to bring an immediate end to all abuses against residents of Crimea, in particular reported discriminatory measures and practices, arbitrary detentions, torture and other cruel, inhumane or degrading treatment, and to revoke all discriminatory legislation.”

It also urged Russia to “immediately release Ukrainian citizens who were unlawfully detained and judged without regard for elementary standards of justice, as well as those transferred across internationally recognized borders from Crimea to the Russian Federation.”

Russia must also “address the issue of impunity and ensure that those found to be responsible for abuses are held accountable before an independent judiciary.”

The world body insisted that the Russian occupying authorities “create and maintain a safe and enabling environment for journalists and human rights defenders to perform their work independently and without undue interference in Crimea; to permit the reopening of cultural and religious institutions.”

Coming at the end of the year, the UN vote capped an intense campaign by Ukraine and global organizations, including Amnesty International and other organizations, to shed light on Russia’s occupation of Crimea and violation of human rights. See my blog post “Russian Oppression in Occupied Crimea Takes Center Stage” of November 15.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine welcomed the resolution, pointing out that this important document provides a clear definition on the status of Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol as part of the territory of Ukraine, condemns the temporary occupation of Crimea by the Russian Federation and does not recognize its attempted annexation by the occupying state.

“That’s why the fixation and condemnation by UN resolution of the systematic human rights violations carried out by the Russian occupation authorities, including extrajudicial executions, abductions, politically motivated persecution and restriction of basic political rights of Crimean residents should become an important step towards defending rights and civil liberties of citizens of Ukraine that live under this occupation.”

The ministry said one of the key elements of the resolution is the call to ensure the unimpeded access of international human rights monitoring mechanisms to enslaved Crimea to monitor and report on the situation according to their mandates. Within the context of the terrible human rights situation in Crimea due to its occupation by Russia, it attached particular importance to the reference in the resolution to the Geneva Conventions of August 12, 1949, which underscores the humane treatment of the population, which lives in occupied territory and the need to protect its rights under international humanitarian law.

With this document in its folder, Ukraine, its allies and civic organizations around the world can appeal to individual member-states to condemn Russia’s enslavement of Crimea and to continue sanctions against Moscow until Russia withdraws all of its armed forces from Crimea and Ukraine. That should be the free world’s New Year resolution.

Senators Urge Trump to Give Ukraine Lethal Weapons

A bipartisan group of US senators wrote to President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday, December 8, urging him to continue America’s strong support for Ukraine during Russia’s war against it.

The 27 legislators’ letter turned out to be a succinct primer on US-Ukraine relations ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s aggression in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

The letter listed the following reasons for the senators’ urgent appeal to Trump:

1. Russia’s enduring illegal annexation of Crimea and military aggression in eastern Ukraine;

2. The Kremlin’s daily ceasefire violations that make a mockery of the Minsk Agreement;

3. Russia’s escalation that demonstrates that this conflict in the heart of Europe is far from over;

4. Russia has yet to withdraw its heavy weapons and continues its sabotage and subversion efforts;

5. Moscow has not halted its disinformation war against Ukraine and the West;

6. Russia has not stopped its economic and political pressure aimed at undermining the Ukrainian government; and

7. According to the UN, approximately 10,000 people have been killed, more than 20,000 wounded, and more than 2 million internally displaced since the conflict began.

“In light of Russia’s continued aggression and repeated refusal to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereign right to choose its own destiny, we also renew our call for the United States to increase political, economic, and military support for Ukraine.  This includes defensive lethal assistance as part of a broader effort to help Ukrainians better defend themselves, deter future aggression, and implement key structural reforms,” they wrote.

The senators expressed their belief that Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea should never be accepted, and the US should not lift sanctions imposed on Russia for its actions in eastern Ukraine until key provisions of the Minsk Agreement are met.

“Accordingly, US leadership on maintaining such transatlantic sanctions should remain a priority,” they wrote.

Russia invaded the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in February 2014, about a week after the conclusion of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia, and simultaneously with Viktor Yanukovych’s flight from Ukraine at the end of the historic Revolution of Dignity.

The lawmaker’s appeal to the President-elect is also timely because Trump has not expressed a word of support for Ukraine while favoring Russian tyrant Vladimir Putin. In July 2016, Trump said he “would be looking into” whether to officially recognize Crimea as part of Russia. The following month he said that Putin is “not going to go into Ukraine,” despite the fact that Russia already had invaded Ukraine.

Stating that Russia’s military land-grab in Ukraine is unprecedented in modern European history, the senators said these “actions in Crimea and other areas of eastern Ukraine dangerously upend well-established diplomatic, legal, and security norms that the United States and its NATO allies painstakingly built over decades – a historically bipartisan global security framework that has greatly served US security and economic interests.”

They drew a straight line between Russia’s war in Ukraine and US security by pointing out that it is in America’s “vital national security interest to uphold these norms and values, and prevent America’s commitment to its allies and ideals from being called into question.”

The legislators concluded their letter by expressing hope for the continuation of the US “tradition of bipartisan support for Ukraine in Congress, which has authorized meaningful assistance programs through the Ukraine Freedom Support Act, the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, and other pieces of legislation.”

The following senators signed the letter: Robert Portman, Richard J. Durbin, John McCain, Jeanne Shaheen, Marco Rubio, Sherrod Brown, Ron Johnson, Christopher S. Murphy, Cory Gardner, Richard Blumenthal, Pat Roberts, Jack Reed, Christopher A. Coons, John Barrasso, Benjamin L. Cardin, Lindsey Graham, Robert P. Casey Jr., John Boozman, Gary C. Peters, Jim Risch, Jeff Merkley, Johnny Isakson, Kirsten Gillibrand, James Inhofe, Amy Klobuchar, Sheldon Whitehouse and Robert Menendez.

Hopefully, members of the House of Representatives will soon compose similar entreaty to the President-elect.

The letter to Trump came a day after NATO urged the free to continue diplomatic pressure and sanctions against Russia until Moscow respects the truce that it signed.

After talks with NATO and Ukraine foreign ministers, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters Wednesday of a “massive increase in cease-fire violations” in the conflict-torn east Ukraine. He said hundreds of explosions are sometimes reported daily, including many caused by heavy weapons banned under the Minsk peace accords.

“The international community must keep pressuring Russia to respect its obligations, especially while the security situation in eastern Ukraine remains so serious,” Stoltenberg said.

The NATO official continued “I call on all parties to redouble their efforts to implement the Minsk Agreements in full. As a first step, we need to see an immediate and full ceasefire. In the meantime, the international community must keep pressuring Russia to respect its obligations. Especially while the security situation in eastern Ukraine remains so serious, it is important that economic sanctions be maintained.”

“Russia has a significant responsibility in bringing the conflict to an end,” Stoltenberg added.

NATO and free world support for Ukraine is welcome and necessary but it will remain lukewarm without the political and moral backing of the United States.

Ukraine Defends National Interests at the UN

Ukraine continues its undaunted diplomatic battle in the hallowed halls of the United Nations to defend its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, safeguard the fate of Ukrainian citizens, protect human rights, and condemn numerous Russian gross violations of the UN Charter and international law and order. Ukraine is steadfastly supported in this mission by Ambassador Samantha Power, US permanent representative to the UN, and several other member-states.

Ambassador Volodymyr Yelchenko, permanent representative of Ukraine to the UN, on November 22 enlightened the world body about why Moscow is depriving the residents of enslaved Crimea of a valuable life-giving commodity, one that is protected by numerous UN resolutions as well as Goal 6 of the Sustainable Development Goals – water.

Yelchenko first of all reminded the UN member-states that Russia invaded the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in February 2014 and has occupied and enslaved it ever since, incidentally as well as two eastern oblasts of Ukraine.

“The territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea as of today remains under occupation of the Russian Federation and under international law it is the occupying power that bears full responsibility for the consequences of its illegal actions,” the Ukrainian diplomat noted.

He explained that the Russian delegation in an earlier statement had demonstrated the inability of the Russian occupation authorities “to address in any satisfactory manner the essential needs of the local population.” Instead of admitting its unlawful actions and attempting to correct the wrongs it committed, Yelchenko continued, “The Russian side opted to use the issue of water supply in Crimea as a propaganda tool.”

Today Moscow is using water as a weapon of control, while in 1932-33 the Russian Federation’s Soviet predecessors used food as a weapon of control that killed some 7-10 million Ukrainians.

Yelchenko challenged the sincerity of the Russian occupiers by saying if Moscow was genuinely concerned about the issue of water, it should cease diverting scarce water resources in Crimea to supply the needs of the growing military infrastructure and military personnel on the peninsula.

Ukraine and other global military observers have reported on numerous occasions Russia’s massive military buildup on Crimea, turning the once popular resort to a dangerous, armed warm water encampment with enough troops, sailors and weapons to strike targets in the Black Sea, the Med and even Atlantic.

Once Russia stops misappropriating water for military purposes, Yelchenko concluded, “The next logical step would be to start the process of de-occupation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and city of Sevastopol, thus contributing in a positive way to addressing the issue of water availability in Crimea.”

A day earlier, the Ukrainian ambassador explained to the UN General Assembly that the so-called Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is a bogus institution and Kyiv will not support any UN measure that would give the CIS credibility.

The CIS is an ill-conceived structure formed 25 years ago, when Ukraine declared its independence and the USSR was crumbling, in order to hasten Ukraine’s push for independence and sovereignty. However, in reality, it is merely another façade to promote the Russian empire.

Yelchenko presented Ukraine’s case why the UN cannot and should not cooperate with the CIS.

“To our disappointment this organization demonstrated its complete failure to take appropriate measures to respond to the Russian aggression in Ukraine. The CIS is still pretending that there is no Russian aggression, no illegal occupation of Crimea, no war crimes committed by the Russian Federation,” he said.

The Ukrainian ambassador pointed out that Ukraine declined to sign the decision of the Council of Heads of State of the CIS of December 24, 1993, regarding measures to ensure international recognition of the CIS, with regard to granting observer status for the CIS in the General Assembly. He said Ukraine acted on the basis of the Statement of December 20, 1991, of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada concerning the conclusion of the Agreement on the CIS, which stated that Ukraine refused to grant the CIS the status of a subject of international law.

He said the CIS is not subject of international law but rather it’s an international, interregional formation which not only lacks definite status but actually includes a military and political alliance established on the basis of the Tashkent agreement on collective security of May 15, 1992, which binds only some members of the Commonwealth.

The CIS was entrusted with strengthening regional cooperation in such areas as trade and economic development while its principal sponsor, Russia, has undertaken targeted illegal and discriminative steps on trade with Ukraine, Yelchenko continued.

The CIS was also mandated to combat terrorism and manifestations of extremism but it has also failed in that respect, he said.

“We express our disappointment that although the Commonwealth positions itself as an active fighter against terrorism and extremism, it has displayed itself with the total absence of response to the actions of one of its most influential members — the Russian Federation — an aggressor and occupier country, which controls, finances and directs the actions of illegal armed groups in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, supplying them military equipment and weapons and constitutes a serious threat to international peace and security,” the Ukrainian official said.

Yelchenko said Ukraine’s abstention from putting to a vote draft resolution A/71/L.5 was based on the understanding that its adoption should not be interpreted as de jure recognition of the CIS as a regional arrangement, as defined in Chapter VIII of the United Nations Charter.

Ukraine’s position on the CIS was spot-on. There is no reason for Russia to have another fake, hollow institution perpetuating its lies and fabrications in the United Nations.

The 71st UN General Assembly and the GA President Peter Thomson should not ridicule themselves by bowing to Russian pressure and endorsing the CIS as a subject of international law.

General ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis and Ukraine

In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s presidential election victory and his perplexing uncritical support for Russian tyrant Vladimir Putin, American voters will be closely watching his every foreign policy step especially the one that pertains to Russia, Ukraine, the former captive nations and NATO.

The other day, President-elect Trump revealed his choice for Secretary of Defense – former four-star General James “Mad Dog” Mattis of the US Marine Corps. The Secretary of Defense and the Department that he heads are vital not only to the country’s defense but also the free world’s security. Traditionally, it has kept vigil over destabilizing developments in the Kremlin and publically or quietly supported Ukraine and the other former captive nations.

Mattis has earned a laudatory reputation as a tough Marine Corps officer, a battlefield hero and a military scholar. Many have equated him to General George Patton, who liberated Europe from Nazi Germany.

So what are his views about Russia and Ukraine? I checked the record today and found the following positive quotes about him or by him:

From The New York Times

In some important policy areas, General Mattis differs from Mr. Trump, who has been filling the top ranks of his national security team with hard-liners. General Mattis believes, for instance, that Mr. Trump’s conciliatory statements toward Russia are ill informed. General Mattis views with alarm Moscow’s expansionist or bellicose policies in Syria, Ukraine and the Baltics. And he has told the president-elect that torture does not work.

From the Daily Wire.com

Regarding Russia, Mattis asserted that Russia’s taking of Crimea and backing separatists in Ukraine was “much more severe, more serious” than Washington and the European Union treated it.

From the Vox.com

Mattis sees Putin very differently than the new president does,

Mattis is also a Russia hawk of sorts — a position that would potentially leave him at odds with the president-elect.

During the campaign, Trump repeatedly praised Russian strongman Vladimir Putin as a strong leader and took positions — including endorsing Moscow’s support for Assad in Syria and refusing to commit to defending NATO allies against a possible future Russian invasion — that are closely in line with the Russian leader’s long-held strategic goals. Putin, Trump said last December, is “highly respected within his own country and beyond.”

Mattis, echoing the assessments of most of the Pentagon’s top brass, has a sharply different assessment of Putin, whom he sees as a clear threat to both the US and many of Washington’s closest European allies.

According to an article by the US Naval Institute, Mattis used a speech to a conservative think tank last May to warn that Russia’s annexation of Crimea and continued meddling in eastern Ukraine was a “severe” and “serious” threat that was being underestimated by the Obama administration.

From Hotair. com

Here’s Mattis on Russia and the wider Pax Americana in May of last year:

Speaking in Washington, D.C., retired Marine Corps Gen. James Mattis said, “the perception is we’re pulling back” on America’s commitment to its allies and partners, leaving them adrift in a changing world. “We have strategic atrophy.”

He said Russia’s military moves against its neighbors—taking Crimea and backing separatists in Ukraine is “much more severe, more serious” than Washington and the European Union are treating it…

He said since World War II the United States helped create a world order—diplomatically [United Nations] , economically [World Bank and International Monetary Fund], culturally and militarily.

By renewing that combination of inspiration and intimidation, “I have no doubt we can turn this around.”

The Hoover Institute

General Mattis reviewed the military situation on the ground in Crimea, east Ukraine, and the periphery of NATO states. He described Putin’s hybrid warfare, which is not new but has been perfected by Russian military planners. Mattis emphasized the importance of the propaganda component of Russia’s hybrid war, which Russia is clearly winning over the West. Mattis also focused on the costs of the Ukrainian war on Russian forces, which have had to be drawn from all corners of Russian, leaving potential trouble spots, such as on the southern border, uncovered.

Mattis noted that Russia at first hoped that it could occupy East Ukraine without loss of life as it did in Crimea but was surprised by the Ukrainian forces fighting back with vigor. The Russian military had to increase its logistic and military support for its rebel forces and then, in August, had to use regular troops to save the encircled Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” from defeat.

With regular Russian forces involved, Ukrainian forces have been outmatched, notably by deadly artillery weapons (such as dual-purpose missiles, banned by the United States) that explode multiple warheads overhead. So far, Russia has been able to fight a tank war owing to the lack of antitank weaponry on the Ukrainian side. Mattis elaborated the military equipment Ukraine needs to defend itself, most of which is available from various NATO states and from other countries. The U.S. supplying lethal defensive weapons would represent a major breakthrough, although Europe is now less inclined to follow US leadership.

Mattis estimated Russia’s nonmilitary to military effort in fighting the Ukraine war at approximately four to one, highlighting the importance of nonmilitary instruments, such as propaganda, in support of the military effort. Ukraine is stretched to its limits with no operational reserves, and its front-line units are depleted.

Mattis noted a nuclear context to this war, which he emphasized is a war. He believes that Putin desires “anarchy protection” (which others have called frozen conflicts) on its borders. NATO expansion did not persuasively demonstrate to Russia the value of having democratic neighbors under the rule of law. In fact, Russia under Putin likely considers neighboring rule-of-law countries a threat to Russia’s nondemocratic, anti-rule-of-law governance.

Change of Heart?

Does this mean that the new President has changed his personal views about Russia, Putin and Ukraine? Trump began appointing or considering men and women for administration and cabinet posts that on the surface satisfy some people while upsetting others. National security adviser Michael T. Flynn seems to regard Putin in the same light as does Trump. Mitt Romney, a possible secretary of state choice, and Mike Pompeo, the next CIA director, believe Putin is a tyrant and global threat. And now there’s General Mattis.

The difference of views about Russia, Putin and Ukraine between Trump and Romney, Pompeo and Mattis are certainly wide, actually they’re diametrically opposed. It would seem that the divergence is insurmountable.

Imagine a Cabinet meeting in the foreseeable future about a significant escalation of Russia’s war with Ukraine that threatens Poland. Don’t discount such a possibility because no one also believed that Putin would invade Crimea and eastern Ukraine in the first half of 2014.

President Trump expresses a wait and see attitude because he trusts his buddy Putin while the three or more anti-Russian hawks want to send in US troops to halt Moscow’s assault.

Whose point of view prevails? Based on Trump’s intolerable stubbornness, the hawks sadly will toe the line with their boss or else he’ll fire them.

Revolution! – Maidan 2013 – 2016

The feelings of hope and anger, anticipation and desperation began to quake deep in the hearts, minds and spirits of Ukrainians. Twenty-two years after the latest declaration of independence of their Ukraine, the nation was not to be deprived of their dream of living in a country of their choice, free of Russian imperialism and subjugation and heading toward Europe, not back into the Russian prison of nations.

They were not to be stopped, not by their corrupt, treacherous President Viktor Yanukovych or by his mentor Russian fuhrer Vladimir Putin.

In the fall of 2013, when Yanukovych began to exhibit his true turncoat colors and reject the aspirations of the nation, Ukrainians from every corner of their country, from villages and towns to major metropolises, Ukrainian speakers and non-Ukrainian speakers, Christians, Jews, Muslims and others started their trek to the capital, determined to strike their chord for Ukraine’s freedom.

The chapters quickly unfolded: Ukraine’s subjugation by Russia, the nation’s desire for accession to the European Union, Yanukovych’s acquiescence, Putin’s opposition and finally Yanukovych’s last-minute reversal. The nation couldn’t stand the government’s duplicity and subservience to Moscow. The people demanded that the accession process go forward and that ex-convicts like Yanukovych by removed from power.

The first Lenin statue that tumbled to cobblestones of a Kyiv street three years ago marked not only the inevitable end of Yanukovych’s reign as Putin’s governor but also the nation’s most recent reaffirmation of its predecessors’ independence struggles and proclamations.

It was nothing else than the Ukrainian nation’s latest revolution against foreign and domestic captivity and tyranny.

With the world watching events in Ukraine unravel, cheering as the beleaguered but undaunted nation fight for its existence, and fearing a Russian counterattack, more than a million men, women and youth came to Kyiv’s Maidan to defend their independence and sovereignty. Defying incredible logistical problems, the protesters – no, Ukrainian revolutionaries – were clothed, fed, housed, cared for and mourned by strangers who came together in a historical exhibition of national unity.

In a brief commentary in the December 2, 2013, edition of The Torn Curtain 1991, titled “Revolution,” I wrote:

“Yuriy Lutsenko declared it yesterday, demonstrators echoed it and by now many news outlets have picked it up as the identifying motto of today’s Ukraine.

“Rightly so. The nation is fed up with Yanukovych’s policies. He has disgraced and discredited himself and his regime and going forward will not be treated seriously by other governments or institutions. And he has bloodied the nation.

“Ukrainians from all corners of Ukraine have been staging demonstrations in their towns or descending on Kyiv to express their protest.

“As we said last week, the US and other countries should institute sanctions against Yanukovych and his cabal to force them from office. This would be a worthy sign of support for Euromaidan.”

The nation did not budge from their positions despite rumors of a Russian military infiltration. Winter was setting it and Russian storm troopers on rooftops began shooting peaceful protesters. Other Putin security officers forced captured protesters to strip naked in the frigid weather. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) arrived on the scene to offer his and America’s moral support to Ukraine’s fight for freedom.

The nation stubbornly persevered.

In another brief commentary on December 9, 2013, I opined:

“In memory of Nelson Mandela and in tribute to Euromaidan:

‘When a man is denied the right to live the life he believes in, he has no choice but to become an outlaw.’ 
“Toppling the Lenin statue was not the goal but it was a major symbolic feat for Ukraine and the ex-captive nations. It was also a warning for Russia. As Georgia’s Saakashvili said at Euromaidan, Ukraine’s triumph will be Russia’s final chapter.

“Yanukovych is discredited and disgraced in Ukraine and around the world.

“So far the demonstrators are peaceful and have peacefully endured the brutal attacks by the police. At the same time Prime Minister Azarov is warning of a coup d’état and state of emergency.

“Before that happens, Yanukovych should heed the pleas of Euromaidan and leave office quietly.”

Putin’s gauleiter his henchmen finally fled to Russia and other hideouts.

Before the end of the year, the Maidan revolutionaries issued their own appeal to the world titled “Arise, Ukraine,” declaring their principals and goals. They affirmed:

“People of the World! The events of recent days have shown everyone that Ukrainian authorities have embarked on an unconstitutional course.

“Dispersal of peaceful demonstrations, beatings, courts manipulated by the ruling powers have undermined the Constitution of Ukraine, which declares that life, health, honor and dignity of citizens of Ukraine are the highest values of the state. Today, in the course of two hours, Ukrainian authorities, through the militia and the specialized police squad Berkut have been destroying democratic values and people’s right to peaceful assembly. It is symbolic that this took place immediately upon the completion of International Human Rights Day. They are detaining peaceful protesters, journalists are prevented from doing their jobs. Democracy in Ukraine is in danger! Free people of the country are in danger! Is this comprehended by politicians of the world, human rights activists, journalists, and people of good will?

“Ukraine! Arise, Euromaidan is summoning you!

“Everyone to the peaceful protests! Everyone who is at home telephone all churches and monasteries across the country and ask for the bells to toll. Kyiv large, Ukraine large and not all in Maidan can hear. But let the world hear: democracy in Ukraine at risk, but the Ukrainian people cannot be broken. Ring the church bells, let Europe hear and witness how they are destroying Kyivan Maidan.

“Together till the end!”

As has become Ukraine’s destiny, Maidan substantiated Thomas Jefferson’s adage about courage and liberty: “The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots.”

The historic images of the Ukrainian nation arising against foreign and domestic tyrants three years ago this week and manifesting its invincible will to live free as well as the accompanying emotions were rekindled today with the jubilant commemorative demonstrations in Kyiv and other Ukrainian towns.

We recall the numerous parades, speeches, rallies, fires, dedication, police depravity and barbarism, beatings, bravery, heroism, patriotism, gunshots, and blood that contributed to the nation’s victory.

Subsequent generations of Russians will have to answer a host of muted questions about their country’s role in trying to quash liberty in Ukraine just like today’s Germans are attempting to cope with the legacy of Nazism. Likewise, future generations will have a glimpse of one episode – Maidan – from a millennium of examples of Ukrainians’ unconquerable, freedom-loving spirit to live in their own independent, sovereign, democratic and indivisible Ukraine.

Social media was the instrument for capacity building in Kyiv. It summoned Ukrainians of all walks of life to Kyiv to voice their disgust and opposition to Russia’s corrupt, anti-Ukrainian colonial administrators in Ukraine. National opposition swelled from a few hundred protesters in the center of the capital to several thousand to more than a million, testifying that this was, in fact, a popular, national revolution for freedom.

The nation once again awakened to stop those who sought to subvert Ukraine’s fate. The marchers emphasized that Ukraine, as a European nation, is part of the European Union and the nation’s youngest generation demanded that Ukraine finds its rightful place among European countries and not in the Russian prison of nations.

The protesters were emboldened into believing that they could change the country. Fed up with Yanukovych’s corruption and submission to Moscow, their movement evolved into a revolution whose goal was to depose the government and liberate Ukraine from Russia’s bonds. Their daring and power grew from their unwavering national beliefs and expanding numbers. They were determined to fight for Ukraine and that victory would be theirs.

Busloads of demonstrators from across Ukraine participated. Doctors from around the country came to Kyiv to treat the wounded and dying. Ukrainian and non-Ukrainian speakers, including Russian speakers, were equally vocal in their disdain for Moscow’s subjugation of Ukraine. Serhiy Nigoyan, an Armenian, was the first to shed his blood for Ukraine’s freedom. Among the Maidan Defense Units were Jewish Maidan Defense Unit and Women’s Maidan Defense Unit. All religious hierarchs, representing the broad swath of faiths of Ukraine, Ukrainian Greek Catholic, Roman Catholic, Orthodox, Jewish, Moslem, Buddhist and others prayed in unison for the nation’s salvation. Teenagers and even younger Ukrainians in t-shirts emblazoned with the Ukrainian national emblem – the Tryzub – and images of national heroes Bandera and Shukhevych, were actively involved in the movement.

Then there was also the upright blue-and-yellow piano and scores of pianists that kept everyone’s spirits high.

The revolutionaries maintained the highest level of moral behavior during the revolution. Drugs and alcohol were not seen in their encampments. The participants were peaceful and unarmed as they faced the depraved barbarism of the Berkut security officers as they repeatedly charged into the nonviolent protesters wildly swinging their truncheons without regard for life or limb. For the first time since 1240, the bells of the St. Michael Sobor tolled anxiously, summoning more and more people to join the protests on Maidan.

Despite repeated waves of baton-wielding officers, the revolutionaries persevered. None of the protesters broke rank and fled. They were committed to their mission, realistically noting that if they abandon their cause now, eventually they would be hunted down and eliminated. In a comical, futile effort to protect themselves against the police, protesters covered their heads with kitchen utensils, pots, pans and colanders.

The Revolution of Dignity as it is called today lasted 93 days during which 125 innocent, peaceful Ukrainians of all walks of life were murdered on the orders of officials in the Kremlin and Kyiv. They indisputably earned the moniker “Heavenly Hundred.”

Infuriated by the slow evolution of events, Volodymyr Parasiuk, a young defense unit commander, seized a historic moment, jumped on the stage and grabbed the microphone. He declared that Yanukovych must present himself to the crowd on Maidan and resign by 10 am the next day or else he would lead the nation in storming his multi-million dollar estate and removing him by force.

Yanukovych secretly fled to Russia the next day, February 22, and almost simultaneously the Russian army invaded the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine and then regions in eastern Ukraine. The fight for Ukraine’s freedom continues and the men and women in the Ukrainian armed forces, fighting and dying in the eastern oblasts, are not doing so for the government but for Maidan, the nation and Ukraine.

Maidan symbolizes the generation that stood on Maidan for three months and faced the enemy without weapons. It was the latest generation of Ukrainian patriots to refresh the tree of liberty with their blood.

Had the revolution never occurred, Maidan would have remained a simple municipal concrete, brick and marble plaza. However, with the revolution, Maidan and everything that the simple word evokes today and tomorrow will always signify glory for the Ukrainian nation and eternal shame for Russia.