Lessons in Current Russian Aggression and Regional Defense by Baltic
States
We’ve been earnestly promoting the
concept of a regional former captive nations alliance against Russian
aggression for the obvious reason that Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Ukraine
endured the same national hell called the Soviet Union, the evil empire or
Russia’s prison of nations.
The Baltic States detailed explanations
about the unending dangers posed by Moscow as well as its invasion of Ukraine
should convince free world leaders and observers that what these four countries
are experiencing can very well spread across Eastern Europe and into “old”
Europe.
In testimonies at the Commission on Security &
Cooperation in Europe: U.S. Helsinki Commission on Thursday, March 17, three
Baltic government officials affirmed that if Russia isn’t dealt with firmly and
immediately in Ukraine, even by vanquishing it, the free world will have to deal
with Russia and Vladimir Putin’s unending desire for additional conquests for many
years to come. The Kremlin has shattered the post-war security architecture and
ersatz peace, leaving the free world to clean up Russia’s mess.
The three Baltic speakers were: Laima Andrikiene, chair, Foreign Relations Committee of the Seimas
(Parliament of Lithuania); Marko
Mihkelson, chair, Foreign Affairs Committee of the Riigikogu (Parliament of
Estonia); Rihards Kols, chair,
Foreign Affairs Committee of the Saeima (Parliament of Latvia).
Their statements, words and expressions demonstrated the
unquestionable belief that the nations of the world will be endangered so long
as Putin rules Russia. You could have found many doubters of this eventuality
around the world just a few months ago. However, due to Russia’s invasion and
war against Ukraine, and its soldiers’ brutal killing of civilians along with
children, world leaders and a wide range of pundits have seen the light. They
finally understand the warnings that leaders of Eastern European liberation
movements have been saying since the end of World War 2.
The parliamentarians pointed out that the future of their
common security – indeed, the security of Europe and the free world – is being
decided in Ukraine. They understand that Putin’s war against Ukraine is the
biggest threat to the Euro-Atlantic security since the end of World War II.
They proposed a new defense and security structure that will
feature a new NATO – one that would show political backbone and give the
x-captive nations the belief that NATO is ready to, and will indeed protect
every inch of their territories.
On the positive side – if there could be one during war –
Russia’s invasion has united the world in defense of Ukraine and against
Moscow.
In this blog, we’re publishing the Baltic parliamentarians’
opening remarks as well as their key responses during the Q&A session:
ANDRIKIENE: Thank you very much. Honorable Chairman, members of the
Helsinki Commission, ladies and gentlemen, first of all I would like to thank
the Helsinki Commission for organizing this important and, I would say, unique
hearing, as you have three chairs of the foreign affairs committees of the
parliaments of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. It is an honor and a timely
opportunity to appear before you today.
Let me start by saying that a global democratic
world order in the past decades has been greatly challenged by the autocratic
regimes of Russia and China. This competition of powers was shaping the
security environment and bringing a lot of tensions over time up until the 24th
of February. This day not only changed the established but deceptive peace in
Europe exposing the real goals of the autocratic state of Russia, but also
unified the democratic western world and created the legend of the greatness of
the Ukrainian nation.
The Baltic States for many years have been the
whistleblowers trying to draw the attention of the whole world to Russia’s real
intentions and ill perception of the world order. The Russian revisionist
policy cannot be eliminated by making concessions or one-sided promises to
“reset” the relations. Russia has chosen confrontation with the Western world
and will remain a major threat for many years to come. Our necessity is to
establish a credible defense, since any conflict on our soil would be too
costly, not only for our nations but for the alliance as well.
For many reasons, both geographic and historic
ones, the Baltic region was bound to remain the most vulnerable part of the
NATO alliance, which required special attention of NATO military planners and
allies. In addition to the Suwalki Gap issue, Russia’s de facto absorption of
Belarus means more than a double increase in the length of the Lithuania-Russia
border, which is the NATO-Russia border. Increased Russia’s military footprint
in Belarus and its engagement in the war against Ukraine is a game-changer and
significantly affects defense calculus in our region and requires the
implementation of additional defense measures.
As we all witness today, the Kremlin employs
massive propaganda and disinformation campaigns in an attempt to justify its
aggression against Ukraine and to conceal its war crimes and atrocities.
Kremlin’s anti-Western narratives and its interpretation of the sanctions
applied against Russia and of the support provided to Ukraine by the West as an
alleged involvement in war against Russia serve the Kremlin as a means of
shifting the blame. Strengthening deterrence is no longer enough. We need to build
credible defense before it is too late. We must change our approach by moving
from deterrence based on limited forward presence and reinforcement to
deterrence by denial and forward defense.
This requires not only re-posturing of our forces
but also a change in our mindset. The necessary measures should be taken
immediately and continue in the long term. We have already taken robust
measures to improve the host nation support capacity and are ready to host
United States and NATO forces by providing infrastructure, which would enable
rapid and smooth deployment of forces and their operation on the territory of
our countries, and necessary training conditions. We call on the United States
of America to step up its efforts in ensuring our defense, in particular by
stationing additional substantial permanent combat forces.
Prepositioning of U.S. military equipment, and
enhancement of our region’s air defense would significantly improve our
security. In our region, air defense with anti-aircraft and long-range missile
defense assets is crucial. We need our own Iron Dome. Air defense over the
Baltic States has to be enhanced, including by deploying necessary assets such
as combat aviation and surface-based air defense of short, medium, and long ranges
in and around the Baltic States.
It would show a political backbone of NATO and
give us credibility that NATO is ready to, and will indeed, protect every inch
of its territory. For that, we need a strong political will from the U.S. side.
Firm support of the U.S. Congress for a persistent U.S. military presence and
capability development in the Baltic region is crucial. Lithuania is serious
about its defense spending, which will reach 2.5 percent of our GDP this year.
We will not stop at that.
Ladies and gentlemen, whilst Russia remains the
biggest and the most imminent conventional threat to the Baltic States, China
is becoming a pacing threat to our national security. While Putin’s regime is
using heavy weaponry, China is weaponizing cross-border economic and trade
relations. China is eager to dominate, not to cooperate. We have always backed
U.S. efforts in defending our common democratic values and containing China’s
global ambitions. China’s targeting the Lithuanian economy with undeclared
sanctions and applying various trade restrictions over deepening ties with
Taiwan. Lithuania has made it clear that it considers such a manipulative
Chinese policy to be contrary to our democratic values and a security
challenge.
The case of Lithuania is a test for the entire
democratic world of our ability to withstand economic coercion and deter – and
to deter China from moving ahead with its redlines and from using coercion as a
regular foreign policy tool to advance its goals. Enhanced coordination of
actions with international allies, including in WTO, is needed to respond to
economic coercion, find systemic long-term solutions, and send a message to
China that such coercive actions will not be tolerated. Lithuania is not
stepping back. Engagement with democratic Taiwan is in our direct interest.
China’s aggressive actions, including its threats to Taiwan, more than ever
before, may have a direct impact on European security.
We thank the United States for its strong support to Lithuania in
the face of pressure by China, including also in offsetting the effects of
China’s economic coercion. In addition, we call on the United States to lead
the efforts to encourage our common allies to take a more resolute stance
against China’s intimidations. Mr. Chairman, thank you once again for giving me
the opportunity to address this distinguished group of U.S. Congressmen. And I
very much look forward to my colleagues’ statements and follow-on discussions.
Thank you very much.
MIHKELSON: Thank you, Senator Wicker. Distinguished members of
Helsinki Commission, those who have witnessed the advance of the Russian brutal
war machine with their own eyes are probably keenly aware that it cannot be
stopped by gentle words alone. As a young journalist covering the first Chechen
War in 1994 to ’96, I learned what Russian authorities were capable of. The
carpet bombings of Grozny killed thousands of their own citizens. And for what?
To stop the empire from disintegrating and the free will of the people from
becoming the norm. The Kremlin’s appetite has only grown in 30 years and has
not been thwarted by Western diplomacy, which has lacked proactive strategy
towards Russia. Russia’s blatant aggression and military invasion in Ukraine
has caused a fundamental shift in the European security architecture and
threatens the peace and stability of democratic nations, not only in Europe but
worldwide. I argue that the future of our common security will be decided in
Ukraine. This is why the Western allies should do everything to coordinate and
supply a wide range of lethal weaponry and other help to Ukraine as long and as
much as it is needed. At the same time, our leaders should not let Russia feel
that it has a green light to destroy one of the biggest democracies in Europe.
Putin must be stopped in Ukraine.
Dear colleagues, Putin’s war against Ukraine is
the biggest threat to the Euro-Atlantic security since the end of World War II.
What we need the most now is a strong and loud allied message that is not only
loud in words but will decisively strengthen the deterrence and defense posture
in the eastern flank of NATO. Russian military forces in the Western Military
District and Kaliningrad hold a geographic advantage and outnumber NATO forces
postured in the Baltic region. Russia’s permanent deployment of land forces,
fighter jets and air defense assets in Belarus will strengthen Russia’s force
advantage even further.
It remains the only part of NATO where Russia can
create credible military strategic dilemmas for the alliance, even during this
crisis and with short notice, if necessary. This is the region of greatest risk
of further Russian aggression. Taking into account the precarious security
situation on the borders of NATO’s Eastern flank, I would like to highlight
that continuous U.S. engagement and presence in the Baltics is of paramount
importance given the vulnerabilities of the region. We welcome the efforts already
made by the U.S. and NATO to bolster the deterrence and defense posture in the
Baltic region, but more is needed to effectively deter Russia and avoid the
risk of miscalculation. And we rely on your support for this.
President Biden’s decision to reinforce the
Baltic region with various assets and personnel has been much appreciated, and
the recent deployments have been of crucial importance in maintaining a
credible deterrence posture. We are doing a lot for our own self-defense. All
three Baltic States have their annual defense budgets above 2 percent of GDP
and defense cooperation between our countries is at historical high. However,
the worsening security situation has highlighted the need for further U.S.
support to immediately fill out a number of critical capability gaps in
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
I would like to thank the Congress for increasing
the resources for Baltic Security Initiative for this year and hopefully also
in the future. This sends a strong message to our citizens of U.S. support to
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania and, more importantly, it enables us to continue
our critical regional capability development projects. We need your support
with ground-based air defense, as the Baltics should not be left out as the
only region in NATO still uncovered by air defense. We are also in need of a
long-range fires capability. These are capabilities that the Baltic States plan
to develop on their own with the help U.S. security assistance, but such
large-scale capability developments take time and the shortfalls in our defense
need to be addressed expeditiously.
These are shared objectives among the Baltics
that are endorsed by the United States European Command. We hope for the United
States’ substantial and consistent security assistance on this, on top of the
on-going projects under the Baltic Security Initiative, such as caliber
ammunition stocks, and special forces. We need to keep bolstering NATO’s
deterrence and defense posture also in the long term. NATO needs a forward
defense strategy. This requires strong political will as well as courage to
take action. It is detrimental that the United States, as the most credible
deterrent, would take leadership role in bolstering the NATO’s eastern flank.
We consider it critical to have the U.S. presence
in the Baltics through NATO framework. NATO should prepare to defend the most
vulnerable part of the alliance – the Baltic States. And this includes, first,
establishing a permanent increased allied forward presence in the Baltic States
in the land domain. Second, establishing a sound and appropriate NATO Command
and Control, C2, structure that is able to plan and conduct military operations
with the Baltic States national home defense forces and allied reinforcement
forces. And third, establishing credible air defense posture with additional
fighter aircraft and ground-based air defense assets.
Thank you to this Commission for the service that you provide for
security and stability in the transatlantic community, including the Baltic
region. I look forward to your questions.
KOLS: Thank you, honorable Senator Wicker, honorable Senator
Cardin, distinguished members of Helsinki Commission. As a concluding intervention,
I think I have the task the most challenging which is to describe the threats
that are awake and blurred, and those are the hybrid threats and the hybrid
warfare that the Baltic countries have been experiencing since regaining our
independence.
So to start with, the Russian General Valery
Gerasimov said, “The role of non-military means of achieving political and
strategic goals has grown and, in many cases, they have exceeded the power of
force of weapons in their effectiveness.” This encompasses the majority of what
I will be addressing to you today. Since we gained our independence from the
Soviet Union in 1990, the Baltics have been under constant Russian pressure.
For us, having lived in this environment for the majority of our lives, this
multi-vector warfare, hybrid warfare tactics, and the chaos they attempt to
create have become intuitively recognizable and often seep into the background
like white noise.
A key aspect to understanding Russia’s actions is the so-called
sootechestvenniki, or compatriots abroad policy. Its officially stated goal is
to support Russians living abroad, including defending their interests and
rights in their place of residence. In this context, it needs to be emphasized
that Moscow, per its compatriots abroad policy and the concept of the Russian
world, aims to bind together all Russian speakers – not just ethnic Russians
but quite literally even the descendants of ancestors who could have had a
connection to, say, tsarist Russia. It considers these minorities as an essential
political means of exerting influence.
In past regional wars, Moscow has argued that it
must protect Russia’s compatriots. In this Russian world, Putin's Russia
anoints itself with the messianic title of the vanquisher of absolute evil, and
with it the right to fight against what it considers fascism. Russia has
weaponized information for a very long time, with it targeting not only Russian
speakers but also what it deems as its geopolitical opposition, the West too.
Spreading disinformation and building up twisted narratives aimed at further
support for its political goals. It seeks to destabilize societies and it does
so also by its export of corrupt practices, by abusing Western legal and
financial loopholes.
Russian doctrine argues that corrupting another
country’s elites is part of new generation war. The Russian brand of corruption
thrives on globalization and depends on access to the global financial system
to loot its own or other states’ funds and assets. The West, however, has
several advantages – time, allies, and transparency. Transparency is a
potentially devastating tool against authoritarians because when corruption is
exposed it delegitimizes the authoritarians. The governments of free societies
already face public scrutiny, which positions them well to demand the same of
others. Russia’s leaders are afraid of accountability.
Therefore, it is time for the West to realize
that corruption is a severe security issue. The Baltic States have a lot of
firsthand experience tackling hybrid threats that previously had been tackled
by democratic countries at all, such as the recent Latvian, Lithuanian, and
Poland experience with illegal migrants sent in from Belarus. Although these
dangers were somewhat unexpected, the answer continues to be efficient.
Therefore, we in the Baltic see ourselves not only as learners in the field but
also as providers of expertise. The Baltic cyber expertise has already
benefited democratic countries across the globe, and the same work should
continue with border incidents and issues such as countering disinformation and
cleaning up financial markets from Russian money streams.
A critical issue is Russia’s weaponization of its
energy exports via its state-owned companies, such as Gazprom. Russia has
attempted, through varying degrees of success, to use energy exports as a
bargaining chip in achieving its political goals. Thus, one of the ways of
resisting aggression and strengthening our resilience is the Three Seas
Initiative, a new forge of unity between nations in the Adriatic, Baltic, and
Black Sea regions, integrating the north-south axis. It is a platform of
pragmatic collaboration to create the network of cooperation possibilities for
twelve countries of the Central and Eastern European region.
It seeks to promote large-scale infrastructural,
digital, and energy-related investments that are highly needed in this
geographic area, as the region still faces underdevelopment challenges – mainly
in infrastructure, interconnectivity, and mobility – following 50 years of
Soviet occupation and its lasting negative setbacks after the USSR’s collapse.
Three Seas would help maintain stability and democracy in countries that the
Western countries formally describe as peripheral. But we are not peripheral.
We are the frontier where democracy in the entire
Western world has to stand or fall. A more robust economic U.S. presence in the
region would strengthen transatlantic business, energy, and geopolitical ties
to Central and Eastern Europe, while compensating China’s and Russia’s
initiatives and actions to advance and make regional in-roads. Accordingly, the
Three Seas merits, in our opinion, American continued political support and
investment, and investment from across the transatlantic communities.
Dear colleagues, for NATO and Europe this will be
a marathon, not a sprint. We cannot afford to be cavalier about our short-term
responses, but must do everything in a strategic, organized, conscious, and
prepared manner. This should not be mistaken for the lack of resolve and
determination to act, but it takes time. Russia spent months building up its
forces on the borders of Ukraine. Hybrid threats are often aimed at the most
vulnerable points of a state. Thus, supporting a well-educated and informed
society, using the means acceptable to them, is a fundamental step in
countering hybrid threats. Well-educated and informed societies will be the
most resilient force against attempts of historical revisionism, revanchism,
and sowing discord.
To conclude, for those who worry that standing up to Russia could
just provoke Putin and drag the world into war, we only have to look at the
history of the 20th century. Nothing is more provocative to a dictator than the
weakness of free nations. Acta non verba (Deeds not words). Thank you.
Q&A
Responses
KOHLS So we cannot exclude any Russian-speaking communities in any
part of the world being exploited in this kind of way to gain the goals of the
regime. When it comes to Latvia, I mean, the current one, we don’t see the –
Russia’s actions in Ukraine has come from part of the Russian-speaking
population in Latvia as a shock, really, like saying that to the last moment,
we didn’t believe that he’s going to do that.
So there are new realities as well – reality
check. But, of course, there are, as I call them, Russian chauvinists that no
matter what is going to happen, no matter what, how you’re going to put, you
know, incentives into integration and et cetera, they will be committed to
Mother Russia, to Putin, and et cetera.
So that is something that, of course, our security intelligence
community needs to work and identify beforehand. But what I have to say that we
still have to do a lot in the West. I mean, it’s been three weeks right now
when we suddenly realized that, you know, propaganda channels, we need to
actually shut them down.
MIHKELSON This is
how Putin is building a Russian world. They don’t care about Russian-speaking
population or Russians. They only care about this idea of reshaping world by
force and, as we all know, they – you know, Putin and others have declared that
the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of 20th century was the breakup of Soviet
Union and this is exactly an idea not only to rebuild Soviet Union but Russian
Empire, and that’s where human lives doesn’t matter, of their own citizens or
the others, and this is where we have to stand as democracies strongly against
this right now and do everything that is possible that Ukrainians can win this
war because this war is our war as well for democracy and freedom in our world.
ANDRIKIENE: On Putin’s threats, this man is unpredictable. Before the
21st of February, even seeing those – you know, Russia’s buildup along
Ukrainian border and in Ukraine, not many people in the world believed that
Putin will give an order for a massive military aggression against Ukraine, and
I have to say that our intelligence also they – that was, you know, miscalculated.
There were, you know, informations that Russian army will be in Kyiv in 48
hours since the beginning of the military attack.
This does not happen and we miscalculated the
readiness of Ukrainians to defend their country and the spirit in the country.
We also miscalculated the strengths of the Russian army and we miscalculated
the position of the European Union on this. Not many politician(s) and
political leaders expected this dramatic change with the position of Germany
and some other countries, and that changed the situation dramatically.
What I understand that Putin is targeting not only Ukraine, is
targeting our security architecture in Europe. If Putin remains in power after
this war, we will not have peace.
Lithuania is – we have to support Ukraine until
the very end, whatever Putin says, until the victory of Ukraine. If we fail in
Ukraine, it will be only a matter of time until Putin continues his aggression
against us – against NATO allies, against Georgia and Moldova.
So Lithuania is supporting Ukraine in many different areas and we
will continue to do this. And as you possibly know, Lithuania was the first one
to provide lethal munition to Ukraine and many other things. Thank you.
ANDRIKIENE: In addition to what has been said, in addition to EU
sanctions, Lithuania implemented additional national sanctions against Russia.
We suspended broadcasting of eight TV channels from Russia. We suspended sale
of Russian and Belarusian printed media outlets. We suspended visas and we also
suspended certificates of Russian and Belarusian services and products.
I would like to remind you that Lithuania took legal international
action outside the scope of the European Union and NATO framework. We requested
that the ICC prosecutor open an investigation into the crimes of the Russian
Federation and Belarus committed in Ukraine. And, also, prime ministers of
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have addressed major online platforms
with the request to take measures to stop the spread of Russian disinformation.
Thank you.
MIHKELSON: Also, we have to do everything, as I said earlier as well,
to make sure that Russia will not miscalculate with possible adventures against
some NATO countries, and this is why we have to make immediate steps, perhaps,
already next week during NATO summit in Brussels. We have to – additional to
that to declare that Article 5 is rock solid and alliance is rock solid.
We have to go and show the steps, what are going
to be visible on the ground in terms of allied presence in the Baltic states
with building immediate steps to build capabilities we badly need in coming
weeks, months, or years, like air defense I mentioned.
But we have to – and here I conclude – we have to be ready for
long-term confrontation with current Russia. And this is where the solid and
united strategy of Western allies are needed right now.
KOLS: Thank you. Just one comment. I think when you talk about
the peace talks, I think what the West needs to avoid is actually by any cause
to find to be as intermediaries as to ones that will settle the two sides
together. I think it’s exclusively a right only up to Ukraine and the Zelenskyy
office in what will be the negotiations or talks and what will be agreed or not
agreed.
I think it’s – well, I will not applaud these
attempts that, you know, European leaders calling five, six times to Putin, God
knows talking about what for one and a half hours, and then each time getting a
slap in the face again and again and again. That is – you know, it’s just
gaining time for Putin to re-maneuver, to rethink, and so on.
So, therefore, the true talks, if they’re even
taking place, is exclusively up to Ukrainians and Russians that are conducted –
I don’t know what it is right now – the fourth time, and it’s only for them to
determine are they ready for any concrete proposals already being implemented.
All the rest is just empty noise, unfortunately, from Russia
sites, in particular, because you cannot talk about peace while you’re bombing
civilian objects in Ukraine. Thank you.
ANDRIKIENE: Very briefly. The composition of Russia’s negotiating team
speaks for itself. The head of this delegation is former minister of culture,
and everybody understands that this delegation is not the one who takes decisions.
There were reports that they managed to agree on humanitarian corridors from –
at least for the civilians from Mariupol.
But even those agreements – so-called agreements – failed. So what
could help in reality is our unified position, united position of democracies
of the world – our EU member states, NATO allies, other democratic countries in
the world. If, in the 21st century, in the very center of Europe, we cannot
guarantee secure corridor for the civilians who are leaving the war zone, I
mean, all our words are nothing, and we, in the Baltic states, all our
parliaments, we very recently adopted resolutions about security zones, no-fly
zones, over humanitarian corridors and nuclear facilities in Ukraine.
They have 15 active nuclear reactors on the
territory of Ukraine, and we know what Russian forces were doing in Chernobyl.
Their very first target was Chernobyl nuclear power station. Then they went to
Zaporizhzhia and there is the third nuclear power station in focus. We have to
stop this. We have to avoid, really, a very big – potentially, very big
catastrophe. And what could stop Putin is, as I said already, our united
stance, our united position, and Ukrainians, who are fighting for their
freedom, for their independence, for their families, for the future of their
children. Thank you.
