X-Captive
Nations are Preparing while the USA is Hedging
The debates waging nowadays in the halls of Congress have more to
do with partisan differences and recriminations rather than deciding America’s
foreign policy and rescuing Ukraine and Europe from brutal Russian aggression.
But that doesn’t offer solace to Ukrainian civilians and military
who at home or on the frontlines are singlehandedly fighting and dying for
their country and saving fellow Ukrainians from assured Russian enslavement. This
congressional stagnation is keeping Capitol Hill from debating and designating
Russian an enemy of nations.
In the aftermath of Germany’s capitulation in 1945 there was a
widespread fear that never having witnessed the realities of life under the
Nazi heel, Americans were obstinately incredulous of the barbarity suffered by
all Europeans notably those inside the concentration camps. And perhaps many
were too lenient with those responsible.
Today, much to the disappointment of the contemporary former
captive nations of Russian aggression, the Cold War drumbeat of dismantling the
evil iron curtain and safeguarding innocent, recently freed nations has faded
into antiquity. The annual Captive Nations Week Proclamation, Public Law 86-90,
established by Congress in 1959, has become an historical relic. Even the
victims aren’t mentioned. The ongoing Russian threat against the former captive
nations and beyond gets merely passing recognition.
The US still provides substantial military,
economic, and humanitarian support to Ukraine, totaling billions of dollars
since Russia’s full-scale invasion. This aid is a significant factor in
Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian forces and includes direct military
assistance like weapons and ammunition, along with economic aid for governance,
infrastructure repair, and humanitarian relief. While US support has been
consistent, public and political debate continues regarding its level and
future continuation, furthering stagnation. The issue of
military and political support for Ukraine isn’t rock solid because of
President Donald J. Trump’s tepid, even flippant backing. His position is
scaring Ukrainians and other former captive peoples as well as Western European
allies.
Recent polls show that a majority of Americans continue to support
providing aid to Ukraine, but there are partisan divides and differing views on
the extent of that support. A recent poll from
March 2025 indicated that 52% of Americans supported sending military aid and
55% backed economic assistance, though these numbers fluctuate and are
sometimes lower. More recent polls, particularly from late 2024 and early 2025,
indicate shifts in opinion, with some finding a slight majority favoring the US
doing too much to help Ukraine, while others show support for continued aid. This drop in support stems from the unstable attitude of the
White House.
With Russia’s massive invasion against Ukraine in February 2022
and the threat of Moscow’s further westward expansion beyond Eastern Europe,
the former captive nations are understandably concerned, perhaps even scared,
by Russia’s very real saber rattling. And regardless of Washington’s point of
view, Eastern Europeans are sharpening their swords and preparing.
Polish
Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said on November 10 that his country’s geopolitical
future looks optimistic, but it depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
In particular, if Ukraine loses, the situation in Poland will change
dramatically for the worse. His observation echoes an age-old Polish adage that
if Ukraine falls, Poland will be next. Both countries that experienced
centuries of Russian oppression share the same border, which can be smashed by
Russian tanks.
Tusk noted that Poland must strategically use its key position in
the region and continue supporting Ukraine, as its defeat would mean a
deterioration of the situation beyond the Vistula River.
He said Poland’s geopolitical future “will look very good if
Ukraine does not lose and if we manage to overcome this historical
Polish-Ukrainian resentment.”
He said, “Building strong, friendly and partnership relations with
a sovereign Ukraine, of course without forgetting our interests, is a great opportunity
for Poland.”
That resentment if not controlled or erased by the capitals and
peoples, more than anything else, can lead to Moscow’s victory over both
countries and the region.
“That is why we must focus on helping Ukraine, because if it loses
the war, the situation in Poland will radically change for the worse. Still, I
remain a cautious optimist. There are no objective reasons why Ukraine should
lose,” he observed.
Tusk also recalled the incident on the night of September 9-10,
when Russian drones violated Polish airspace. He called it “a turning point in
the conflict.” These dangerous Russian incidents have increased not only over
Polish skies but across Eastern and Western Europe.
The prime minister described the decision to shoot down the drones
as difficult. "It was not easy, because no one wants to overstep and
accidentally start a third world war,” he said, noting that “giving in and tolerating
provocations leads to nothing good.”
Is Russia testing its neighbors ‘preparedness, skills,
armament or wisdom with drone flyovers?
Just in case Russian cutthroats cross the border in
Poland and take up positions in its cities and villages, Warsaw hopes to
prepare its citizens for the worse. A pilot program by the Polish Ministry
of Defense aims to train 400,000 people in 2026. The Defense Minister of Poland
told Reuters on November 6 the initiative is needed due to the threat from
Russia.
Poland’s Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said the
program, which he dubbed “the largest defense training in Polish history” would
be available to “all Polish citizens from primary school children to old-age
pensioners.”
“We are living in the most dangerous times since World War Two. A
war is raging beyond our borders, there are acts of sabotage in the Baltic Sea
and battles in cyberspace,” Kosiniak-Kamysz said.
Similar concerns and fears are felt across Eastern Europe. Ukrainian author Serhiy Maidukov, in an
article in the Estonian World warned
that Europe is drifting toward the same moral trap that followed the First
World War – but in reverse. One hundred and seven years ago, Germany’s
humiliation bred resentment and war – World War Two; now, the risk is that
Ukraine, the victim, will be left humiliated while Russia obnoxiously regains
acceptance.
What began as a struggle for justice is turning into a negotiation
for convenience. As Western attention shifts elsewhere, Ukraine’s suffering has
receded from the headlines. The fear, Maidukov writes, is that Europe will once
again choose “manageable silence” – rewarding the aggressor and abandoning the
principle it once defended.
If that happens, the moral and political damage will not stop at
Ukraine’s borders. It will mark the beginning of Europe’s own unravelling.
At a NATO Defense Ministers’ meeting in Brussels on October 15,
Estonia’s Defense Moinioster Hanno Pevkur announced that Nordic and Baltic
partners have raised 500 million euros ($578 million) for Ukraine through the NATO-US
PURL initiative, which funds American military aid using allied contributions. Pevkur
said four such packages have already been delivered since August, and more
allies are preparing to join future rounds. Estonia’s own military assistance
to Ukraine will exceed 0.3% of GDP next year. He also pressed for allies to
meet the NATO target of investing 5% of defense budgets in capability
development and called for faster action to strengthen air defense on the
eastern flank, citing rising drone incursions. Italy has extended deployment of
its SAMP/T system in Estonia as part of NATO’s air policing mission.
At the same meeting, the NATO-Ukraine Council and the Ukraine
Defense Contact Group – co-chaired by the UK and Germany – discussed Kyiv’s
urgent needs for air defense, ammunition and industry support. A separate
Memorandum of Understanding was signed for Legio, a
Nordic-Baltic initiative to train and equip a Ukrainian brigade to NATO
standards. In this vein, the Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian
Brigade must be strengthened to battlefield readiness.
Estonia is contributing 10 million euros ($11.6 million) to an
initiative through which NATO allies and partners purchase essential weapons
systems and ammunition from the United States to support Ukraine. The
“Prioritized Ukraine Requirement List” initiative enables the supply of
US-produced weaponry to Ukraine, including air defense systems, ammunition and
spare parts.
Europe must meet the challenges of Russian aggression as a
“different kind of war,” Estonian President Alar Karis said during an interview
with Newsweek on
October 24.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and war
has neighboring countries concerned, he said. Estonia borders Russia
as part of the Baltic States, which also includes Latvia and
Lithuania. The country is a little over 400 miles from Moscow and only around
97 miles from St. Petersburg. Over the past few months, Russia
has allegedly harassed neighboring countries that are members of the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, most recently flying aircraft over
Lithuania and Estonia’s airspace in what has been labeled a blatant breach of
sovereignty and international law.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is “not only about territory” but
also about rewiring global norms and “reestablishing a Russian vision of how
things should be run,” Estonia's Ambassador to the US Kristjan Prikk told
Axios.
According to leaders of the former captive nations, there has long
been concern about Russia not stopping its bloody march at Ukraine’s borders,
particularly within NATO’s eastern bloc.
What they’re saying: “We firmly believe that this war is not
just about Ukraine,” Ambassador Kristjan Prikk said in an interview,
echoing the view of many Ukrainian officials. They believe that Ukraine is the
frontline of Europe’s defense. “If this war was to end with an outcome that
would for Putin and his supporters in a way verify or vindicate what they have
done, this is a recipe for further trouble.”
Exactly what or when that trouble would emerge, Prikk didn’t
specify. But Moscow is already waging a surveillance-and-sabotage
campaign across Europe.
Estonian officials this month closed a road that cuts through a
part of Russia known as the Saatse Boot after spotting an unusually large
contingent of troops nearby, and NATO forces in September ran off Russian
warplanes as they neared the capital, Tallinn.
Nearby Finland is one
of the few European countries to have long-range missiles in all three domains
of air, sea, and land. Striking Moscow’s assets in Russia during any invasion –
as Ukraine has shown great improvisation to do – is a key part of the
Finnish defense strategy. Ultimately, this leads
Finland to feel relatively relaxed. Few Finns think that Russia would choose
its frontier as the location for its first test of NATO resolve — but they are
prepared if it does.
Russian military planes briefly violated Lithuania’s airspace one recent evening, the Lithuanian president
said, condemning what he called a blatant breach of the territorial integrity
of his European Union and NATO-member country. Lithuania’s foreign ministry
planned to summon Russian Embassy representatives in the Lithuanian capital of
Vilnius to protest the violation, President Gitanas Nausėda said in a post on
the social media platform X.
“This is a blatant breach of international law and territorial
integrity of Lithuania,” Nausėda wrote on X. “Once again, it confirms the
importance of strengthening European air defense readiness.”
The Latvian Foreign
Ministry issued a statement noting the war against Ukraine: “24
February 2025 marks three years since Russia launched its brutal full-scale war
against Ukraine. Russia’s actions are a blatant violation of international law
and order and are condemned by the entire democratic world. From the very first
day of the war, Latvia has provided Ukraine with comprehensive political,
military, financial, development cooperation and humanitarian assistance.
“Latvia stands with Ukraine. We will not weaken our support for
the Ukrainian people in their struggle for independence and their homeland.
Over the past three years, the support of the Latvian society for Ukraine has
remained strong. A poll conducted at the end of 2024 shows that 61.7% of the
Latvian population will support Ukraine until its victory, 64.2% want Ukraine
to win the war and the same number believe that by helping Ukraine we are
protecting Latvia from war.
“Latvia is committed to providing military assistance to Ukraine
of no less than 0.25% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) both this
year and in 2026. This year we will deliver 42 Latvian-made Patria AWV to
Ukraine. Latvia will further provide various kinds of support for Ukraine in
the future, including after a possible ceasefire.”
In addition to official support, on February 24 of this
year, the people across Latvia demonstrated their solidarity with the people of
Ukraine by gathering in various support and commemorative events.
Kaja
Kallas, vice-president of the European
Commission, which is the primary executive branch of the European Union,
and an Estonian politician, said
international efforts to end Russia’s war have stepped up in the last
few months. But in all cases Russia’s response is more aggression. Putin has demonstrated
that he has zero interest in peace in Ukraine, and he will not stop the war
until he is forced to, Kallas observed.
“This is why the European Union and our Member States have
provided almost 169 billion euros ($196 billion) of financial support since the
full-scale war started in 2022. This includes over 63 billion euros ($73 billion)
in military support for Ukraine. This year alone, Member States will provide
more than ever before – 25 billion euros ($29 billion) to date. They have now
also provided 80 percent of our 2 million rounds of ammunition target. We aim
for 100% by October. This is all so that Ukraine can defend itself, can defend
its civilians and push back the aggression,” she said.
Russia demands that Ukraine should surrender its
national territory in order to secure peace and President Trump favors this
notion. However, the former captive nations and old Europe are against it.
Ukraine shouldn’t have to give up territory as part of
a peace deal with Russia, Kallas said after Trump pushed Kyiv to give up land
to end the war.
“If we just give away the territories, then this gives
a message to everybody that you can just use force against your neighbors and
get what you want,” Kallas told journalists in Luxembourg after a meeting of
foreign ministers. “I think this is very dangerous. That’s why we have the
international law in place, [so] that nobody does that.”
“What you can conquer back is one question, but the
other question is also what do you recognize as the territory of another
country?” said Kallas, a former prime minister of Estonia. “I come from a
country that was occupied for 50 years, but [a] majority of the countries in
the world didn’t recognize them to be Russian territories. And that also meant
a lot.”
A couple of recent salient observations by President Zelenskyy:
“I think this support will really strengthen the
armed forces, I pray, and we will have a chance at victory if Ukraine really
gets the weapons system, which we need so much, which thousands of soldiers need
so much.”
“Probably it will be very, very, very difficult.
And of course, in all the difficult situations, you have a chance … But we will
have low chance, low chance, to survive without support of the United States. I
think it’s very important, critical.”
The issue is whether the free world and its nominal leader
are committed to protecting Ukraine and ensuring that it will exist as an
independent, sovereign and democratic country or else face the painful question
“Who lost Ukraine?”
