Go Ahead, Knock this Stick off My Shoulder, I Dare Ya

Repetitive threats of tough and tougher sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine and shooting down MH17 remind me of reluctant schoolyard dares to knock it off. Go ahead, knock it off, I dare ya.

To be fair, US, Canada and the EU have imposed punitive sanctions against Russia, which reportedly have cost Russian oligarchs some $14.5 billion. But Russia’s aggression and killings continue unabated. Nothing seems to be convincing Putin that he must cease and desist or else his belligerent polices will bring Russia and Russians Nazi-like disgrace for generations.

Washington and other capitals that are endeavoring to bring Russia to its senses haven’t yet convinced Russia of their resolve because Russia raises its criminal ante everything the US and EU reply by warning Moscow that if it does that once more, they will then really punish Russia. Go ahead, knock it off, I dare ya.

Apparently frustrated by Putin’s aggressive obstinacy, the European Union and the United States on Tuesday, July 29, announced what they consider significant additional sanctions against Russia, targeting its energy, banking and defense sectors. The declared sanctions were touted as the strongest international reaction yet over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in hopes that it would back down from its war to subjugate Ukraine.

“Russia is once again isolating itself from the international community,” President Obama was quoted as saying, claiming that the US sanctions will have an “even bigger bite” thanks to action by the Europeans. 

“If Russia continues on this current path, the costs on Russia will continue to grow,” Obama said in Washington. “Russia’s actions in Ukraine and the sanctions that we’ve already imposed have made a weak Russian economy even weaker.”

Obama said the US sanctions would hit the finance, arms and energy sectors of Russia’s economy. Among the US sanctions, according to the Treasury Department, are penalties that target the Bank of Moscow, the Russian Agricultural Bank and VTB Bank. Also listed on the Treasury designation is the United Shipbuilding Corp., which is based in St. Petersburg. 

Obama said the US is also blocking the export of certain goods and technologies to the Russian energy sector, and suspending credit “that encourages exports to Russia and financing for economic development projects in Russia.”

In Brussels, diplomats said ambassadors from the 28-member European bloc agreed to restrictions on trade of equipment for the oil and defense sectors, and “dual use” technology with both defense and civilian purposes. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Putin’s biggest supporter who had been reluctant to step up sanctions before the crash because of her country's trade links with Russia, said the latest EU measures were “unavoidable.” Russia’s state run banks would be barred from raising funds in European capital markets. The measures would be reviewed in three months and they’re supposed to be enacted August 1.

The word “if” and the lack of immediacy will not convince Putin of the West’s conviction. Also, it is unknown how much financial pain the Russian oligarchs, most of whom are loyal Putinists, are prepared to tolerate. Is $14.5 billion enough? Will $20 billion send them over the top and spark a revolution against Putin?

Regrettably, Putin has shown no sign of backing down now or in the face of future sanctions or threats. Indeed, despite the virtually universal global condemnation following the downing of MH17, Western countries have said Russia hasn’t backed down but rather it stepped up support for Russian terrorists in Ukraine by sending them more tanks, artillery, rockets and heavy weapons.

News media noted that London’s financial could face disproportionate harm from measures against Russian banks. German manufacturing firms could also lose customers. European banks and other creditors that are owed money by Russians may face a greater risk that clients will have trouble refinancing or repaying their loans. Perhaps those are the real reasons for hesitation.

“These sanctions are harder than anything we have ever had before,” said James Nixey of British think tank Chatham House. “It will hurt a little bit but it’s a down payment on the future security of Europe. It's a question of Western credibility.”

So far the down payment has not convinced the aggressor.

Sen. John McCain’s quaint warning that there would be hell to pay if Russia doesn’t cooperate with the international investigation about the downing of MH17 can be extended without exaggeration to Russia’s behavior not only over the past six months but through centuries. Hell wasn’t paid because Russia has a large letter of credit from Lucifer. Last week McCain called Europe’s tepid sanctions on Russia are “a joke” that will only encourage further aggression from Putin.

“It's a joke and they will do nothing and I predicted they would do nothing,” McCain was quoted as aptly remarking. “They will continue to do nothing until the day they become independent of Russian energy. Until then they will talk.”

McCain’s allusion was correct. How long will the US and EU tolerate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its neighbors? The former captive nations feel the threat but when will Berlin and Paris?

The Washington Post stated in an editorial on July 24 that Putin “has responded to the international outrage over the destruction of a Malaysian airliner by his proxies in eastern Ukraine by escalating his aggression.” The newspaper noted that the Russian leader “is clearly not impressed” by the West’s response and sanctions.

Criticizing Obama’s halfhearted response to Russia’s aggression, The Washington Post correctly opined that the US “has already missed the opportunity for swift action to stop Mr. Putin’s escalation. If he does not act soon, it may be too late to save Ukraine.”

Will Ukraine, 23 years after declaring its independence from Russia, be lost on our watch?

Economic sanctions have so far been ineffective because Putin has scoffed at them. He is keenly keeping his eye on regional and then global domination – Russia’s manifest destiny. The US, Canada and EU must up the ante. They must declare Russia a global terrorist state, exclude it from international affairs, ostracize it from the table, stop trading with it, and sever diplomatic relations with Moscow.

They also have to take to heart the sobering conclusion by Leonid Nevzlin of OJSC “Yukos Oil Company,” the Russian petroleum company, that the only salvation for Russia – and the world – is Putin’s ouster from power.