Tension on the High Seas: Russia

Readies Third Front vs. Ukraine

Despite warnings, threats, condemnations and sanctions, Russia has turned a deaf ear and is escalating apace its war against Ukraine and by association Europe and the free world.

Moscow’s third front against Ukraine – after Crimea and eastern Ukraine – is in the Sea of Azov, a 15,000-square-mile body of water north of the Black Sea and southeast of Ukraine – where it is interfering with maritime shipping lanes and raising tensions between itself and Kyiv. Russia set its eyes on what is called in Ukrainian Ozivske More ever since the World Cup tournament in Russia concluded this summer. The Russian navy has blocked commercial vessels from docking in Ukrainian ports and engaged in dangerous cat-and-mouse games with Ukrainian ships.

This latest Russian intensification of its military intent does not bode well for a restoration of regional peace and stability while simultaneously underscoring Moscow’s desire to widen its military campaign beyond the borders of Ukraine.

In May, Russia opened a bridge across the Kerch Strait connecting mainland Russia to the Crimean Peninsula—the Ukrainian territory Russia invaded and seized in 2014, obnoxiously declaring its sovereignty over territory it seized from Ukraine.

The Kerch Strait is the only water passageway from the Black Sea to the Sea of Oziv. Consequently, all maritime traffic now has to pass under Russia’s new bridge. Maritime traffic in the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol has dropped by 15 percent, and the port of Berdyansk has decreased by one-third, Ukrainian officials report.

Russia has effectively taken control of the sea-lanes in the Sea of Oziv—a move tantamount to a military blockade, Ukrainian military experts have pointed out.

With its new bridge complete, western pundits have observed, Russian officials swiftly moved to limit the tonnage of ships passing through the Kerch Strait. That paralleled a spike in activity by Russian naval forces this summer—comprising mostly gunboats, corvettes, and submarines—to board and harass Ukrainian merchant ships in the sea.

Russia has stopped at least 16 vessels bound for Ukrainian ports in recent weeks, and delayed hundreds of others since April. Some Ukrainian officials warn the Russian move this summer could escalate the ongoing land war.

“We see this being done to block the Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Oziv, to escalate tension, and possibly to conduct a military operation, attack Mariupol that exports ferrous metals, as well as attack other ports of the Sea of Azov,” Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in July.

The United States made note of this latest Russian provocation against Ukraine on Thursday, August 30, when it called on Russia to cease what it called “harassment of international shipping” in the Sea of Oziv and Kerch Strait, accusing Moscow of trying to destabilize Ukraine.

“Russia’s actions to impede maritime transit are further examples of its ongoing campaign to undermine and destabilize Ukraine, as well as its disregard for international norms,” the department’s spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a statement.

“The United States supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, extending to its territorial waters,” she said.

Strong statement, indeed. Hopefully, the United States will have the temerity to stand side-by-side with Ukraine if and when Russia opens begins bombarding Ukrainian ships and ports.

According to an international relations expert, with its military adventurism growing in the Sea of Oziv, Russia is apparently working out the algorithm of further aggression against Ukraine’s interests in the Black Sea. Russia could repeat in the Black Sea its scenario of the blockade of Ukrainian seaports, now being worked out by Russian coast guard vessels in the Sea of Oziv, according to Andriy Karakuts, He believes such a step by the Kremlin would entail serious consequences, according to Obozrevatel. “Russia in the Sea of Oziv is in many ways working out options for blocking the Black Sea, precisely the part controlled by Ukraine. Unlike in the Sea of Oziv, where large warships can't enter because of its status, and because it’s a small sea, such scenario unfolding in the Black Sea would cause much more serious consequences,” he pointed out.

With Russia dead set to escalate its invasion of Ukraine and consequently threaten Europe, it is encouraging that the United States is ready to widen arms supplies to Ukraine to help build up the country’s naval and air defense forces in the face of continuing Russian support for eastern separatists, Kurt Volker, the US special envoy for Ukraine was quoted as saying in Britain’s The Guardian.

Volker said in an interview published on September 1 that pro-Western, anti-Russian sentiment was growing in Ukraine and that the Trump Administration was “absolutely” prepared to go further in supplying weaponry to Ukrainian forces than the antitank missiles it delivered in April.

“They are losing soldiers every week defending their own country,” Volker, a former US ambassador to NATO, said in the interview.

“And so in that context it’s natural for Ukraine to build up its military, engage in self-defense, and it’s natural to seek assistance and is natural that other countries should help them. And of course they need lethal assistance because they’re being shot at,” he added.

Fortunately, the Trump Administration’s absolute support to send Ukraine more arms is definitely sustained by the Senate and Congress.

“We can have a conversation with Ukraine like we would with any other country about what do they need,” Volker told the Guardian. Considering Russia’s threating incursions in the Sea of Oziv, he added:

“I think that there’s going to be some discussion about naval capability because as you know their navy was basically taken by Russia. And so they need to rebuild a navy and they have very limited air capability as well. I think we’ll have to look at air defense.”

At a time of Russia’s dangerous sabre rattling, it is noteworthy to hear increasing American support for Ukraine. A day after the funeral of Senator John McCain, Samantha Power, former US permanent representative to the United Nations, and a recognized vehement supporter of Ukraine and detractor of Russia, observed in a tweet “Surely [it is] no coincidence that John McCain – who planned every detail of today’s memorial – invited Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko and seated him beside Jens Stoltenberg, head of NATO. A parting message to Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump: America stands with our friends & allies.”

Indeed, today Ukraine and the other former captive nations depend on America and the free world for their independence and sovereignty. Despite the shortcomings of sanctions and condemnations, Washington and other capitals must maintain them until Russia evacuates from Ukraine.

A dependable political solution to the Russo-Ukraine War of 2014-18 would be welcome compared with a bilateral escalation of hostilities. However, even in face of that unwanted eventuality Ukraine can stand its own ground. According to DefenseNews.com, Ukrainian state-run defense firm Ukroboronprom has announced a successful test of the new Neptun cruise missile. The anti-ship missile struck a maritime target 100 kilometers away from its launch point in the south of the Odesa region on August 17.

Locally developed by the Kyiv-based state design bureau Luch, the Neptun reportedly is a subsonic anti-ship cruise missile with a reported maximum range between 280 and 300 kilometers. More significantly, ground- and air-launched variants that could be used to strike targets as far away as Moscow are reportedly in development. Thus the Russian war against Ukraine could be brought to the source.

Following the test, Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksandr Turchynov observed: “Ukrainian cruise missiles are capable of providing reliable defense of the Black Sea and Oziv coast, affecting enemy vessels at distances up to 300 kilometers, if necessary, even in the ports they are based.”

Therefore, the alternative is obvious: the United States and the free world must now steadfastly join ranks with Ukraine to subdue and expel Russia from Ukraine and save mankind from the scourge of Russian aggression and imperialism.