X-Captive Nations Bloc Needed Now More than Ever

One of the recurring themes of this blog has been the establishment of a comprehensive bloc of former captive nations of Russian subjugation. Today’s events near Ukraine and elsewhere demonstrate that such a regional alliance is needed more than ever.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and occupation Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, the former captive nations have understood that their collective and individual destinies are also threatened. Moscow has never denied that its mission is to restore the so-called “glory of the Russian empire” and has warned the international community not to interfere with its plans.

In numerous news media Ukraine, the Baltic States, Poland and others admitted that they feel vulnerable to an attack by Russia in the wake of its relentless, shameless war against Ukraine.

The free world, led by the United States, has warned Moscow against escalating its seven-year war versus Ukraine and provided Kyiv with military and humanitarian aid and funding to endure and hopefully prevail over Russia. Moscow has been undaunted in pursuing the restoration of its empire.

With Russian tanks and troops mobilizing on the southeastern border of Ukraine, officials of the three Baltic States this week in Kyiv unabashedly cast their support for Ukraine and warned Moscow against crossing the border. This sends a palpable signal to Moscow and Washington that must be transformed into action. Russia must be expelled from Ukraine; no compromise; no frozen front lines. All of Ukraine must be returned to Kyiv’s authority. If the free world collectively doesn’t stand up and actively defend Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the former captive nations will protect themselves.

Speaking on behalf of his Latvian and Estonian counterparts, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania Gabrielius Landsbergis, declared that Ukraine will never be alone against the background of Russia’s belligerence.

“The main message of the Baltic states is that Ukraine will never be alone, and this should be clearly understood,” the Lithuanian foreign minister said. He emphasized the consequences for Russia if it crosses the “red lines.”

“We want to send a clear message to Russia that it must de-escalate the situation, cease its actions and return to the only path that we see as effective – the political path, negotiations in the Minsk format and the Normandy format. Because after crossing the ‘red lines,’ political paths will be less realistic, and I completely agree with those who say that the consequences cannot be avoided,” he said.

“The mission of the joint visit is to express strong support to Ukraine and reconfirm support for its territorial integrity and sovereignty,” Estonian Ministry spokeswoman Aari Lemmik told Reuters.

Landsbergis separately expressed support for Ukraine’s reforms and Euro-Atlantic course.

“We support the reforms. We support Ukraine's rapprochement with the European Union and NATO. We stand with you. We stand in solidarity with you and are ready to provide everything you need in the future and move you forward in your aspirations,” he said.

Last month, President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda delivered a speech to Ukrainian lawmakers and the nation, which I wrote would be remembered by generations to come for its inspirational bi-national call to arms that also paid homage to the nations’ glorious past and succinctly pointed to a mutually beneficial future. Noting the commonality of Ukrainians and Lithuanians, Nausėda said: “And we, Lithuanians, were at your side every time the Ukrainian nation would rise to defend its dignity. For centuries, we had been next to each other and even built a common state. We traded, made cultural exchanges, fought back against a common enemy” – an obvious reference to Russia.

The expansion of the Russian empire throughout its former enslaved lands would certainly give rise to a new east-west division and an iron curtain, as Anaïs Marin, UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Belarus, said at the Urgent Debate on the situation of human rights in Belarus Human Rights Council 45th session. She urged the global community to help the small country before an iron curtain again descends on Eastern Europe. “Excellencies, Let’s not allow another iron curtain to descend on the European continent,” Marin pleaded.

Such a former captive nation’s alliance must be multifunctional to benefit all segments of their peoples, however, inasmuch as Russia is waging war in the region – and threatening other areas as well – the bloc should first endeavor to build a solid military group along the lines of the “Hetman Konstantyn Ostrohskiy” Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian Brigade (LITPOLUKR). According to military media and the brigade’s website, this unit represents a new era of multilateral security cooperation in Europe. Lithuanian, Polish, and Ukrainian efforts to bolster European stability in the wake of Russia’s destabilizing invasion of Ukraine led to the creation of the unit in 2015. The brigade’s website notes that each participating country contributes an infantry battalion, staff for the headquarters in Lublin, and specialized smaller units, to create a brigade between 3.5-4,000 soldiers, which perhaps might not be enough to serve a practical mission.

The brigade’s main task is to serve as a peacekeeping force to be deployed with the unanimous consent of all participating states. However, the brigade is also intended to bolster regional military cooperation.

The work of this joint military unit should reinforce in the minds of global leaders the comprehensive concept of what was a captive nation in Russia’s dungeon and what is a former captive nation, now independent state, ready to defend itself and assume its rightful place among the countries of the world. It is important for military leaders to know that they have a trusted, well trained and battle-hardened ally in this brigade as free world seeks to stem Russia’s aggression. They should also take note that if for any reason the free world fails to support the x-captive nations, they will then do so on their own.

Former Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Linas Antanas Linkevičius, an outspoken critic of Russian imperialism, observed “It’s not just that we hear about threats but we testify them because they are real, they are not a big secret. Let’s remember the case of annexing the territory of Georgia, and recently they did so with the Crimea. We are asking ourselves how we can really resist it.

“If you are asking whether or not Russia is threatening our region, this is a different case. Lithuania is a member of NATO and the European Union, so there is no direct threat. However, there are insecurities in the region, and militaristic arguments are used in political debates. This is worrying and we have to understand it as a challenge and react.”

Linkevičius has pointed out that Russia’s threat, or hybrid war as he and others call it, is not only felt in his country but also everywhere around the world.

“It is not only present in the Eastern parts of Europe but also in the West. Inevitable are strategies used in war such as apply energy as a weapon, strategic communication, propaganda, cyberattacks. I think we should really take care of the threats and know how to resist them through best practices. We need to work closely so we cannot underestimate this threat,” he said.

Estonian Minister of Defense Juri Luik had said NATO is an answer. “Russia has become a threat again, and the need for NATO is stronger than ever. This is the framework holding the European defense together – an agreement between states that allows us to continue pursuing our strategic goal despite the internal political flutters,” Luik said. 

Short of the free world’s tangible involvement in safeguarding the independence of the former captive nations, NATO’s visible muscle and the West’s tepid attitude, the former enslaved peoples’ only salvation, as I am proposing again, is for them to form a regional mini-NATO, an updated Anti-Bolshevik Bloc of Nations (ABN), that would noticeably promote and safeguard collective security against Russia.

Moscow today is the world’s main exporter of various threats and instability. The Kremlin has extended Russia’s destructive influence because its leadership’s aggressive actions have not faced a formidable deterrent, as Linkevičius and others have suggested. The free world should learn from its post-World War Two mistake of rejecting warnings about Russian belligerence. Now is the time to build effective deterrents.

Ukraine and the region can’t wait any longer for decisive and principled international action under free world leadership to bring an end to Russia’s destructive ambitions.

The former captive nations must now seize the initiative and form a dynamic regional bloc.