Reaching the Terminus a Quo, again

The free world certainly seems to be an assembly of very patient, likeminded countries, governments and leaders that favor freedom and democracy but prefer to talk, negotiate and pronounce even with international criminals.

While Russia continues waging its seven-year war against Ukraine and conducts a wide range of dirty tricks around the world, the free world stands should-to-shoulder in condemning Moscow and threatening greater recriminations against its governing junta.

However, Vladimir Putin and his cronies remain unfazed, displaying a “What me?” attitude. Where would the world be if Adolf Hitler couldn’t care less about Winston Churchill’s verbal reprisals?

Regional organizations continue to support Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity as well as a return of Crimea to Ukraine.

On April 27 the European Parliament adopted a resolution, which condemned Russia’s military escalation on Ukraine’s border and warned “Should military build-up lead to an invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the EU must make clear the consequences for such a violation of international law and norms would be severe. Such a scenario must result in an immediate halt to EU imports of oil and gas from Russia, the exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT payment system and the freezing of assets and cancellation of visas for Europe of all oligarchs tied to the Russian authorities.”

The resolution was approved by 569 votes in favor, 67 against with 46 abstentions.

The European legislature, consisting of 705 legislators from 27 member-states, declared that Russia “poses not only an external threat to European security, but is also waging an internal war on its own people in the form of the systematic oppression of the opposition and arrests on the streets.”
It said that if the Russian army would be used to invade Ukraine, “imports of oil and gas from Russia to the EU [should] be immediately stopped’ and Russia should be “excluded from the SWIFT payment system” of international bank transfers.
It also said “assets in the EU of oligarchs close to the Russian authorities and their families” need to be frozen and their EU visas canceled if those Russian forces invade Ukraine.

The European Parliament expressed that it “Supports Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders; reiterates its strong support for the EU’s policy of non-recognition of the illegal annexation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the City of Sevastopol; welcomes all of the restrictive measures taken by the EU as a consequence of the illegal annexation; calls for the immediate release of all illegally detained and imprisoned Ukrainian citizens in the Crimean peninsula and in Russia, and deplores the continued human rights violations perpetrated in Crimea and the occupied territories in eastern Ukraine, as well as the large-scale conferral of Russian nationality (passportization) among citizens in those areas; underlines that Russian officials whose actions or inaction have enabled or resulted in war crimes in Ukraine will have to face international criminal justice.”

It seems as if Moscow is in violation of all of the parliament’s strictures and warnings.

On a closer scale, Ukraine and four former captive nations of Russian subjugation met in Warsaw on May 3 to commemorate the 230th anniversary of the adoption of the May Third Constitution and dedicated themselves to reinforcing their democratic mutually beneficial relations.

The event was attended by President of Poland Andrzej Duda, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Estonia Kersti Kaljulaid, President of Latvia Egils Levits and President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda. It is particularly significant that Moscow was not included in this forward-looking remembrance.

The presidents said: “We express the conviction that the prosperity of our common heritage and common home, rooted in the European civilization, demands that, just like home, also Europe be built on the basis of fundamental values and principles. These are with no doubt: freedom, sovereignty, territorial integrity, democracy, the rule of law, equality and solidarity…We believe that to all of us the solidarity of nations, especially under current threats to our common security, is one of the cornerstones of peace, stability, development, prosperity and resilience.”

Separately, in bilateral talks, President Duda said Poland is ready to fully support Ukraine’s European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations. For Ukraine, Poland and the region, this is a declaration of singular importance. It means uniting the futures of the former captive nations into a united bloc for their mutual benefit and security, which is a goal that I have advocated on numerous occasions.

“Our bilateral meeting ended today with the signing of a joint declaration on the European prospect for Ukraine, i.e. belonging to the EU. In this issue, Poland has always supported Ukraine,” Andrzej Duda said at a joint briefing on the results of bilateral talks.

“It is also very important for us because this will be the first important summit with the participation of our friends and partners related to the deoccupation of the Ukrainian Crimea,” said Ukraine’s Zelenskyy. Furthermore, Zelenskyy said, Duda once again emphasized his support for the European and European integration aspirations of the Ukrainian state.

“This is a very important signal. I am grateful that Poland, led by President Duda, always protects our sovereignty and territorial integrity, and does not recognize the occupation of the Ukrainian peninsula,” Zelenskyy said. “Because we really understand one another very well.”

Indeed, Kyiv, Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn understand each other very well having individually and collectively experienced Russian subjugation and the joy of liberation.

As the free world looks on the region in the wake of Moscow’s withdrawal from Ukraine’s border, political and military observers, including an honest Russian one, believe the threat has not dissipated. Russia can return to Ukraine’s frontier at any time.

The threat of a major Russian military operation against Ukraine and the West more broadly has not disappeared, Pavel Felgengauer, a Russian military analyst known for his publications about Russia’s political and military leadership, opined, according to EuroMaidan Press.

Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing about worldwide threats, on Thursday, April 29, the Russian military is an “existential threat” not only to the region and world but also to the United States. The ocean is not a defense perimeter.

Berrier said Russia’s military is being used to maintain influence over states “along its periphery, compete with US global primacy and compel adversaries who challenge Russia’s vital national interests.” He also said “Moscow continues to invest in its strategic nuclear forces, in new capabilities to enhance its strategic deterrent, and that places the US homeland at risk.”

Again we’re at the terminus a quo. Russia continues to do what it has been doing for centuries. Ukraine and the former captive nations along with European countries closest to Russia’s border are hoping for the best while preparing for the worst. While the free world is watching, talking and threatening.