Sunday, December 22, 2024

Russia’s Goal is to Erase all Ukrainians from Human Memory

Put aside Putin’s untrue explanations about why Russia again invaded Ukraine. In reality, Putin’s sacred mission is to annihilate all living Ukrainians from human memory.

This war of Russia’s that it’s been waging for more than 1,000 days has only one goal: to subjugate the people, turn future generations of Ukrainians into docile Russians, remove the border between Ukraine and Russia, and rub out all memory of a nation known as Ukrainian.

History is replete with examples of Moscow’s tsars, commissars or today’s dictators trying to do this.

It’s comparable to what Hitler hoped to do with Jews.

Since this latest iteration of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine began in February 2022, its brutality has been well documented. It has been detailed at the United Nations, international organizations, and the capitals of free-world countries.

Unarmed civilians have been summarily killed in their homes, churches, hospitals, schools; others on the street waiting for food parcels; children have been raped and murdered, or forcibly taken to Russia from their living or dead parents. The list of war crimes screams to high heaven for retribution.

The record also includes the sudden execution of Ukrainian soldiers who have been forced to surrender, thus becoming prisoners of war. None of this matters to Russian cutthroats.

Last week the BBC published an article detailing that Russia is executing “more and more” Ukrainian POWs.

You may recall the heartless fate of Ukrainian sniper Oleksandr Matsievsky, who was killed after digging his own grave while taking his last drag of a cigarette, and proudly declaring to his captors “Glory to Ukraine.”

The BBC observed that Oleksandr Matsievsky is one of many Ukrainian combatants who were killed in violation of international norms that protect prisoners of war. International humanitarian law, particularly the Third Geneva Convention, offers protection to prisoners of war, and executing them is a war crime.

The BBC wrote that in October on 2024, nine captured Ukrainian soldiers were shot dead by Russian forces in Kursk region. Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating the case including a photo showing half-naked bodies lying on the ground. This photo was enough for one of the victims, drone operator Ruslan Holubenko, to be identified by his parents. His frantic mother recognized her son by his underwear that she had bought for him.

“The list of executions goes on. Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating reports of beheadings and a sword being used to kill a Ukrainian soldier with his hands tied behind his back. In another instance, a video showed 16 Ukrainian soldiers apparently being lined up and then mowed down with automatic gunfire after emerging from a woods to surrender,” the article states.

Some of the executions were filmed by Russian cutthroats themselves, while others were observed by Ukrainian drones hovering above. The killings captured on such videos usually take place in woods or fields lacking distinctive features, which makes confirming their exact location difficult. BBC Verify said it has been able to confirm in several cases – such as one beheading – that the victims wear Ukrainian uniforms and that the videos are recent.

“The upward trend is very clear, very obvious,” Yuri Belousov, the head of the War Department at the Ukrainian Prosecutor-General’s Office, was quoted as saying.

“Executions became systemic from November last year and have continued throughout all of this year. Sadly, their number has been particularly on the rise this summer and autumn. This tells us that they are not isolated cases. They are happening across vast areas and they have clear signs of being part of a policy – there is evidence that instructions to this effect are being issued.”

Rachel Denber, deputy director of the Europe and Central Asia Division at Human Rights Watch, told BBC there is no shortage of evidence supporting allegations of Ukrainian prisoners of war being executed by Russian troops. According to her, impunity plays a key part, and the Russian army has some serious questions to answer.

“What instructions do these units have, either formally or informally from their commanders? Are their commanders being quite clear about what the Geneva Conventions say about the treatment of prisoners of war? What are Russian military commanders telling their units about their conduct? What steps is the chain of command taking to investigate these instances? And if higher ups are not investigating, or not taking steps to prevent that conduct, are they aware that they too are criminally liable and can be held accountable?” she ponders.

According to Human Rights Watch, since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022 the Russian forces have committed “a litany of violations, including those which should be investigated as war crimes or crimes against humanity.”

Keep these crimes in mind when next to encounter a Russian diplomat on the streets of New York or Washington, DC.

Thursday, December 19, 2024

Soldiers or Civilians, ‘All Ukrainians Deserve to Die’ – Say Russians

You wouldn’t treat your own dog like this, but Russians have historically maligned Ukrainians like the Nazis did – regarding them as untermensch who deserve to die.

Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya, permanent representative of Ukraine to the United Nations, speaking in the Third Committee on December 17, 2024, about “Human rights situations and reports of special rapporteurs and representatives,” described the inhuman, horrific conditions facing Ukrainians in their own land as Russian cutthroats pursue their war against Ukraine.

Kyslytsya recounted to the representatives of the member-states one civilian’s description of how insecure the lives of everyday Ukrainians are: "They (the Russians) don’t care whether you’re a soldier or a civilian—what matters is that you’re Ukrainian, which means, in their eyes, you deserve to die." The Ukrainian diplomat pointed out that the woman, sharing her harrowing experiences of living under Russian occupation, is a resident of Rubizhne, a city in the Luhansk oblast of eastern Ukraine, situated on the left side of the Donets River.

“While she and her family were fortunate to escape to Ukrainian-controlled territory, her testimony reflects the grim reality faced by millions of Ukrainians in areas under Russian control,” Kyslytsya said. “This is not an isolated story. It is part of a well-documented and deliberate policy by Russia to terrorize and dehumanize Ukrainians.”

He cited another example from a brochure titled “Practical Recommendations to the Participant in Combat Actions” published on December 12, 2022, on the official website of the Russian Ministry of Defense under the title “Who Are Ukrainians?” 

“[…] Someday, … they [Ukrainians] will become Russians again. But for now, they are enemies—cruel and treacherous. This means that we need to beat them until they put their hands up, without stopping, until our victory,” he read.

Kyslytsya pointed out that these quotes highlight “the atmosphere of fear, repression, and lawlessness imposed on Ukrainians under Russian occupation.” Since 2014, when Russia seized the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, the temporarily occupied territories have become “zones of impunity, where gross human rights violations and war crimes are systematic and pervasive.”

Fortunately, he noted, unlike previous Russian wars against Ukraine, Russia’s war crimes in this one are thoroughly documented. 

“This extensive documentation will undoubtedly support the pursuit of justice and ensure that all perpetrators are held accountable. I therefore urge all alleged war criminals not to place false hope in evading responsibility, but to actively cooperate with investigations and provide their testimonies,” he said.

Reports from the United Nations, including the International Commission of Inquiry, and findings from other international monitors credibly document Russia’s widespread and deliberate perpetration of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and gross human rights violations and abuses.

“These include summary executions, enforced disappearances, torture, sexual and gender-based violence, and inhumane treatment of civilian detainees and prisoners of war,” Kyslytsya detailed, specifically pointing out that “These atrocities are not random acts of violence, but part of a calculated and systematic policy aimed at erasing Ukrainian identity—obliterating cultural and historical markers while forcibly indoctrinating those who remain.”

He explained that the Ukrainian civilian population has no recourse because those who “dare to oppose face arbitrary detention, torture, extrajudicial executions, and the additional threat of having their children taken away or deported to Russia.”

To offer some form of solace and help, Kyslytsya said the Ukrainian delegation is proposing a draft resolution titled “Situation of human rights in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, including the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.”

According to him, the resolution aims to maintain the General Assembly and the UN’s focused attention on the dire human rights situation and provide essential protection for those affected, particularly the thousands of Ukrainian children forcibly deported or displaced by Russia. It calls on the Russia to immediately and unconditionally return all Ukrainian children, including those unlawfully adopted or placed in foster care. Ukraine and its partners will continue to fight for the safe return of every child.

“The resolution serves as a practical tool for the UN for ongoing monitoring and reporting on the human rights situation in the temporarily occupied territory, providing a crucial mechanism for accountability,” he said.

However, Kyslytsya added, “the only way to guarantee full respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms for the residents of these territories is their de-occupation from Russia. Restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders is not only a matter of justice for Ukrainians but also essential for European and global security.”

In other words, liberating Ukrainian lands currently held illegally by Russia and allowing the nation to live freely.

He thanked the 49 member-states that have co-sponsored the draft and called on all “responsible” member-states to stand with Ukraine by voting in favor of the draft resolution.

Despite the world’s hope for negotiations to end the war, in the words of the late Israeli prime minister Gold Meier, how can you talk to someone who wants you dead while you want to live.


Sunday, November 24, 2024

Regional Security Alliance—Its Time has Come

Caught in the death throes of Russia’s historic unprovoked war against Ukraine with its concurrent threat against Europe, the ministers of defense and representatives of the Northern Group of European nations voiced their strong support for the establishment of a regional security alliance to fend off the real possibility of Russia’s invasion against them.

The government representatives meeting in Denmark reaffirmed on November 20 their steadfast support for Ukraine and their commitment to continue and develop Northern Europe’s military assistance to Ukraine and to strengthen industrial cooperation. The coalition includes representatives from the Baltic States, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Britain, Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands.

According to their post-meeting statement, based on an assessment of Ukraine’s strategic challenges and current and future needs from the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov and Minister of Strategic Industries Herman Smetanin, the ministers presented and discussed ways to enhance the military support to Ukraine.

The ministers agreed to reinforce and advance the military support to Ukraine, including through the involvement of Northern European and Ukrainian defense industries. The participants noted that this will further bolster Ukraine’s industrial and technological capacities as well as the potential of European defense industry. Participants reaffirmed that Russia, as it has demonstrated in Ukraine, remains the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security.

Despite several false starts in the past decade, hopefully this effort will be finally successful. We have been advocating for the establishment of such a coalition since 2014, when we wrote about then Foreign Minister of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin’s idea of creating what he called a Coalition of Freedom.

Outraged by the Russian invasion of his homeland, Klimkin proposed the Coalition of Freedom to defend democracy and Western values in a troubled world. “It is about security for everyone,” said Klimkin. He opined that Ukraine is confronting a threat any nation can face, adding “we need a network of security.”

Klimkin added: "We are in the process of the fight for freedom, for European values and for Western values and we will definitely pull it off."

In February of 2022 Russia fulfilled its destiny and everyone’s fears of invading Ukraine.

Then in 2023 we cheered when the presidents of Poland, Andrzej Duda, Lithuania, Gitanas Nauseda, Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, convened a meeting in Lviv, on January 11, where they signed a joint statement of the presidents of the Lublin Triangle.

“The Presidents of Poland, Andrzej Duda, Lithuania, Gitanas Nauseda, Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. A joint statement of the presidents of the Lublin Triangle has been signed in Lviv today,” the Office of the President of Poland had said on Twitter.

This military, security and commercial agreement was certainly designed to safeguard the needs of the countries involved. The joint declaration signed by the presidents of Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland following the second summit of the Lublin Triangle supports holding the Global Peace Formula Summit, creating a special international tribunal to prosecute Russia, giving Ukraine EU and NATO membership prospects, and continuing security assistance to Ukrainians. The task and goal of helping Ukraine in its war with Russia was placed high on the list of the agreement’s mission.

Earlier, the three x-captive nations of Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland announced the mobilization of the “Hetman Konstantyn Ostrohskiy” Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian Brigade (LITPOLUKR).

According to military media and the brigade’s website, this unit represents a new era of multilateral security cooperation in Europe. Lithuanian, Polish, and Ukrainian efforts to bolster European stability in the wake of Russia’s destabilizing invasion of Ukraine led to the creation of the unit in 2015.

The brigade’s website notes that each participating country contributes an infantry battalion, staff for the headquarters in Lublin, and specialized smaller units, to create a brigade between 3.5-4,000 soldiers.

One of the most vital contemporary security issues is the ongoing hostile global threat posed by Russia and its war against Ukraine. It has certainly boiled over from a two-country war to a significant regional war with the active participation of North Korea and arms supplier Iran. Some, among them Ukrainian Gen. Valery Zaluzhnyi, former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, have said that humanity is witnessing the start of World War Three.

At the Denmark summit last week, the ministers emphasized that there can be no peace talks without Ukraine’s participation and they agreed to follow up urgently at a meeting in Ukraine in early 2025. They also discussed the threats and challenges to the security of Eastern borders of the alliance.

While most of the free world displays varying degrees of support for Ukraine, especially in view of Donald Trump’s election victory as the next President of the United States of America, the countries of Eastern Europe, the former captive nations of the Russian prison nations, maintain a strong unified position about the individual and collective danger of living on the border with Russia. They understand that by reason of geography and Russia’s historical, insatiable imperial appetite they are in daily jeopardy.

Furthermore, these countries’ leaders use every occasion to tell the world that the fate that has befallen Ukraine awaits other countries across Eastern Europe and beyond, including the United States. The x-captive nations have urged the West to stand up to Russia’s aggression and not surrender to or else Europe could descend into a major war for the first time since the end of World War II in May 1945 as we are witnessing now.

A regional mini-NATO, this latest security coalition, an updated Anti-Bolshevik Bloc of Nations (ABN), would noticeably promote and safeguard collective security against Russia.

Friday, November 22, 2024

World War Three is upon us Thanks to Russia

World War Three is upon us Thanks to Russia

Ukraine’s former military commander in chief said the direct involvement of Russia and Russian allies in their unprovoked war against Ukraine means that World War Three has officially begun.

“I believe that in 2024 we can absolutely believe that the Third World War has begun,” Gen. Valery Zaluzhny warned Thursday, November 21, according to Politico .

Ask anyone: who are the three greatest threats to world peace & security? Answer: Russia, Iran & North Korea. Who is fighting all three, tryin to save itself and the world? Answer: Ukraine.

Moscow is seeking to subjugate all of Ukraine, from the Polish border to the river Don, before the free world wakes up to its evil designs. Fortunately President Biden has approved Kyiv using long-range missiles against targets in Russia. Great Britain also actively supports this. But where are the others?

As with World War Two, an international alliance of free-world countries was needed to defeat Nazi Germany, so too today a global coalition is needed to defeat and subdue Russia. 

The free world must not lose Ukraine to Russia—again.

Monday, November 11, 2024

Ahead of One Thousand Days

Seven days after the 2024 Presidential Elections in the USA and 10 days short of 1,000 in the latest iteration of Moscow’s war against Ukraine and Russia still hasn’t let up on bombing Ukrainian cities and homes and killing innocent, unarmed civilians.

President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on a platform of not caring whether Ukraine lives or dies and his buddy Vladimir Putin is taking full advantage of this dangerous, anti-Ukrainian political climate. The incoming president apparently isn’t going to complain or threaten Moscow into submission. President Biden, fortunately, has declared his intention to help Ukraine’s war effort as long as he is in office but that will only last some two and a half months. After that, it could be smooth sailing for Russian cutthroats in uniforms. They could continue bombing nonmilitary targets and killing civilians without reproach.

In the meantime President-elect Trump will be fulfilling his promise to end the war within more or less 72 hours without consideration for the lost, dead or subjugated people of Ukraine. After all, as the new foreign policy experts said, the United States doesn’t care about the permanent losses. The USA only cares about ending the war and returning to its interpretation of peace. This is a perfect example of what happens when ignorant, negligent officials hold the reins of foreign policy. The 1000-year history, heritage, culture, and people of Ukraine are meaningless so long as Putin and his heathens have achieved their peace. That word and goal are becoming an insult.

On Monday, yes, the one that boasts 11/11/11, Russian glide bombs, drones and a ballistic missile smashed into cities in southern and eastern Ukraine, officials said, killing at least six civilians and injuring about 30 others.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was quoted as saying that Russia recently intensified strikes that have long tormented civilian areas, in an apparent effort to unnerve Ukrainians and wear down their willingness to keep up a war that is approaching its 1,000-day milestone.

“Every day, every night, Russia commits the same terror,” Zelenskyy said in a post on the Telegram messaging app. “Except that an increasing number of civilian objects are becoming targets.” These Russian war crimes are persisting regardless of who is in the Oval Office. We can only guess what they’ll look like after Trump takes the Oath of Office.

The Ukrainian army intends to expand its mobile units, which are primarily tasked with shooting down drones, in the regions most frequently targeted by Russian strikes, Zelenskyy said on Telegram.

Zelenskyy also said that Ukraine is working on producing its own much needed glide bombers as part of a domestic missile program.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine would conduct a “substantial reinforcement” in areas near the Donetsk settlements of Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, where Ukraine’s army is in danger of being overrun.

Zelenskyy added that Ukraine is holding its positions in Russia’s Kursk border region, where Western and Ukrainian officials say Russia is being helped by thousands of newly arrived North Korean troops. He said Russia has deployed some 50,000 troops to Kursk. Most if not all of these murderers come from the non-Russian peoples of Russian-occupied Asia.

Also in Donetsk, near the recently captured settlement of Hirnyk, the Russians have damaged a dam at the Kurakhove reservoir, according to regional Gov. Vadym Filashkin. This is the second dam in Ukraine that could fail after the collapse infamous Kakhovka dam in June 2023 that killed hundreds of people. Russia is guilty of that environmental catastrophe as well as this impending one.

The local water level in the Vovcha River has already risen by 1.2 meters, though no homes have been affected, and possible flooding threatens both the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, he said.

“We continue to monitor the water level in the river and are prepared for any developments,” Filaskin said.

The major cities struck Monday by Russia are close to the approximately 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line.

Russian drones hammered the southern city of Mykolaiv, killing five people and injuring a 45-year-old woman, local authorities said. Around two dozen people sought psychological help following the attack that damaged houses and stores, officials said.

Mykolaiv, about 60 kilometers (40 miles) northwest of the front line in the Kherson region, frequently comes under Russian attack.

An overnight attack on Zaporizhzhia, also in the south, with three powerful glide bombs killed one person and injured 21, including a 4-year-old boy, Ukraine’s National Police said. The strikes partially destroyed a two-story apartment building and damaged a dormitory.

A five-story apartment building in Kryvyi Rih, Zelenskyy’s hometown in central Ukraine, was hit by a Russian ballistic missile, injuring at least eight people. The missile destroyed all five stories in one part of the building, said Oleksandr Vikul, head of Kryviy Rih Military Administration.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s intelligence agency claimed in a statement it destroyed a Russian Mi-24 assault helicopter parked at the Klin-5 airfield in the Moscow region.

Trump team’s focus on peace at any cost will not bring lasting peace to Ukraine and the region. All of the former captive nations bordering Ukraine believe any concession to Moscow would imperil their existence, forcing them into an updated Russian prison of nations.

Regardless of who’s in the Oval Office, Republican or Democrat, if Washington doesn’t embrace the conviction that the nations of Eastern Europe have an intrinsic right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness that must be safeguarded and Russia threatens that belief, then no amount of soldiers and weapons will ensure their peaceful, sovereign existence.

Every Iranian-made Russian missile that hits a Ukrainian city is courtesy of Mr. Trump.

Every Iranian-made Russian drone that hits a Ukrainian apartment building killing civilians is courtesy of Mr. Trump.

Saturday, November 9, 2024

With Trump in White House, Ukraine Stands to Suffer at the Hands of Russia

Donald Trump’s second victorious election to the White House last week was both historic and foreboding.

As the world waits for what a convicted felon would do as the chief executive of the United States and moral leader of the free world, Ukrainians around the world waited with trepidation to see if the new White House team would in fact betray Ukraine. After all, Trump did not express admiration for Ukraine as he did for Putin and the Kremlin.

The answer came on Thursday, November 7, just two days after Election Day. Up until then, the current Administration didn’t offer any qualifications or prerequisites for its support for Ukraine. It was adhering to the premise stated two years ago by President Biden that America would support Ukraine against Russia as long as it takes.

The former captive nations cheered America. Old Europe probably moaned but complied because it understood that it could be the next captive region.

US Cabinet departments until recently echoed this steadfast support for Ukraine.

And then came one shocking revelation.

The US will support President Volodymyr Zelenskyy if he decides to start negotiations with Moscow, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said during a Nov. 7 briefing.

“It's not something that it is appropriate for us or for any other country to push him into. And we would support him in any process to try and ensure a just and lasting peace, but that is ultimately his decision, not ours,” Miller said.

Miller also stressed that, per the UN Charter, Ukraine has the right to maintain its borders, territorial integrity, and sovereignty.

He added that the US has “seen no indication” that Putin plans to “drop his demand to continue to gobble up Ukrainian territory.”

“I’m sure there’s a negotiation that Putin would accept where he gets everything that he wants, and Ukraine gets nothing that it is entitled to under the law, but that is not a negotiation that President Zelenskyy has been interested in, nor should it be,” he added.

In political nomenclature, hinting at a hypothetical conclusion is synonymous with expressing support for it in anticipation of its realization. Miller’s clarification is enlightening only for Putin as he’s waiting for an unraveling of America’s uncompromisingly strong support for Ukraine. The State Department’s bureaucrat has open Pandora’s door to needless speculation about something that Zelenskyy has disavowed since the first days of the latest iteration of Moscow’s war against Ukraine.

Moscow now as the opportunity to convince all of Washington that the world exists in a new reality and that Ukraine and its ardent former captive nations allies must follow the beat of this drummer. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu said two days after Trump became president-elect, that the West should accept that Russia was winning its war against Ukraine and negotiate an end to it. “Now, when the situation in the theater of military operations is not in favor of the Kyiv regime, the West is faced with a choice – to continue financing it and destroying the Ukrainian population or to recognize the current realities and start negotiating,” Shoigu said.

A senior advisor to Trump echoed the president-elect’s version of a new pro-Russian realpolitik, saying that the incoming administration will focus on achieving peace in Ukraine rather than enabling the country to gain back territory occupied by Russia. Bryan Lanza, a Republican Party strategist, told the BBC the Trump administration would ask Zelenskyy for his version of a “realistic vision for peace.”

What if the allies in World War II had insisted that for the sake of peace, the Poles and the French surrender their historical lands that were annexed by the Nazis?

Lanza opined “And if President Zelenskyy comes to the table and says, well we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he’s not serious. Crimea is gone.”

Lanza, Trump’s political adviser since his 2016 campaign, didn’t mention areas of eastern Ukraine, but he said regaining Crimea from Russia was unrealistic and “not the goal of the United States.”

“When Zelenskyy says we will only stop this fighting, there will only be peace once Crimea is returned, we’ve got news for President Zelenskyy: Crimea is gone,” he told the BBC World Service’s Weekend program. “And if that is your priority of getting Crimea back and having American soldiers fight to get Crimea back, you're on your own.”

Lanza said he had tremendous respect for the Ukrainian people, whose “hearts are made of lions.” But he said the US priority was "peace and to stop the killing.”

This dangerous, anti-Ukrainian point of view is only a step from promoting the notion that Kyiv should also surrender to Moscow Luhansk and Donetsk for the sake of an elusive peace. Furthermore, where do the incoming foreign policy experts draw the line in their panicky pursuit of peace: Kyiv, Lviv, Ternopil, Krakow?

The former captive nations as well as besieged Ukraine believe that giving in to Russian pressure is a fatal mistake. Nothing will stop Moscow from pursuing its manifest destiny to subjugate all of Ukraine and leaders of Eastern European countries, who know the meaning of so-called Russian liberation, agree with that mortal eventuality.

Zelenskyy on many occasions has said that the idea of any concessions to Russia is unacceptable for Ukraine, and he considers it suicide for the whole of Europe.

“And some of those present here strongly advocated that Ukraine should make ‘concessions’ to Putin. This is unacceptable for Ukraine and suicidal for the entire Europe. So what's next? Should Europe hope for Kim Jong Un's sympathy that he will also leave Europe alone? No strong leader who has helped build a united, strong and peaceful Europe could even imagine that.”

At the same time, he correctly advised that the tried and true concept of “peace through strength” has repeatedly proved its realism and effectiveness. “Now it peace through strength is needed once again. And there should be no illusions that you can buy a just peace by showing weakness or surrendering any European positions or the positions of any European country.”

There are hundreds of thousands brave Ukrainian men and women in uniforms on the eastern frontline of Ukraine pondering if they’ll survive the winter without suitable weapons and warm apparel. Both are dependent on foreign budgets and funding for both is stalled. Monies even for humanitarian projects in the USA such as U4U for Ukrainian refugees are again stuck in a bureaucratic morass.

Fortunately, the Biden administration is planning to rush the last of more than $6 billion remaining in Ukraine security assistance out the door by Inauguration Day, as the outgoing team prepares for the weapons flow to end once President-elect Donald Trump takes office.

The plan, according to two administration officials who were granted anonymity to discuss internal matters, is the only option the White House has to keep sending equipment to Ukraine to fight off continued Russian offensives. But the problems are immense. It normally takes months for munitions and equipment to get to Ukraine after an aid package is announced, so anything rolled out in the coming weeks would likely not fully arrive until well into the Trump administration, and the next commander in chief could halt the shipments before they’re on the ground.

One big holdup to pushing that aid out the door quickly is that the US can only send equipment already on its shelves. While the money allocated reimburses the Pentagon for that equipment, it is dependent on how fast new artillery shells and weapons can be produced or contracted to replace them.

“We have been sending whatever industry can produce each month, but the problem is you can only send these things as they are produced,” said Mark Cancian, a former Department of Defense budget official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The administration could dip into the stockpiles and send equipment more quickly, but it’s unclear the Pentagon would want to do that since it would affect its own readiness.”

During his campaign, Trump said he will “not give a penny to Ukraine.” Part of his plan to end the war “in one day” – he is overdue as of today – is that he would the Ukrainian president no more. You got to make a deal.” But if Russia is allowed to conquer and subjugate Ukraine, it would only be a matter of which democracy gets colonized next by the neighboring dictatorship: Poland, the Baltic States, Moldova, or Taiwan. This is an important point, overlooked by the president-elect. Ukraine, for all of its crimes, misdemeanors and faults, is still a democratic country and Trump is willing to send it into Putin’s waiting arms.

In addition to military viciousness, Russia, through its relentless violence, has thousands of unarmed civilians in Ukraine and displaced millions.  “It has razed Ukraine’s infrastructure and is threatening global food security.  Russia undermines our collective work to advance economic security in the OSCE region. Russia’s forces have waged a systematic campaign against Ukraine’s agricultural sector, destabilizing global food markets.  Moscow has sought to break Ukraine’s exports at every link of the supply chain, whether destroying the food itself or the means to produce and ship it.  Russia has set fire to fields, mined seabeds and farmland, torn up roads, bombed grain silos, and reportedly rendered millions of hectares of Ukraine’s farmland unusable,” said US Chargé d’Affaires Katherine Brucker to the Permanent Council, Vienna on November 7.

Even as the final votes are still being counted, Russia resumed it brutal missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities.

Russian missiles, bombs and drones battered three regions of Ukraine in targeted nighttime attacks, officials said Friday, November 8, as Russia mounts an intensified aerial campaign that Ukrainian officials say they need more Western help to counter.

Since the war began almost three years ago following Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor, the Russian military has repeatedly used its superior air power to destroy civilian targets across Ukraine. More than 10,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed in the conflict, according to the United Nations.

A 500-kilogram (about 1,000 pounds) glide bomb severely damaged a high-rise apartment building in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, in the middle of the night, regional Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said. At least 25 people, including an infant, were injured, he said.

Russia is unleashed two days earlier near-constant waves of long-range drone strikes on Ukrainian cities as its troops advance in the east. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned Moscow was firing about 10 times as many drones as it did last fall. Missiles and drones for the most part are being manufactured in Iran, which together with Russia and North Korea are waging a singularly devastating war against Ukraine.

As well as drastically increasing the number of strikes, Russia has begun to fire decoy drones without warheads to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses. Decoy drones carry a “3D-printed ball wrapped in foil” to imitate the warhead of an Iran-made Shahed-136 drone, Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s air defenses, told CNN. These cheaper drones confuse Ukraine’s air defenses, which may shoot down decoy drones instead of ones carrying a lethal warhead. Decoy drones now account for as many as half of all Russian drones fired at Ukraine, Ihnat said.

The x-captive nations are still holding fast to their commitment to help Ukraine overcome Russian aggression. For example, the fundamentals of Estonian foreign policy have not changed because of the American president elections. After all, Putin hasn’t changed his objectives. He’s still waging a war of aggression with the aim of controlling the whole of Ukraine and creating a buffer zone in Europe, pushing NATO’s military activities back to the pre-1997 borders, which makes this an existential issue for us. 

The Estonian foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna, on November 6 issued a statement, saying that Trump’s victory does not change Estonia’s foreign policy aims.

“Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential elections of the United States of America does not change Estonia’s foreign policy aims and actions towards the United States because the foundations of Estonia’s foreign policy have not changed,” the foreign minister said. “Russia still wants to destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty and dismantle the security architecture based on the European Union and NATO. Our task is to make sure that Russia does not achieve its goal, and a just and long-lasting peace is achieved in Europe.”

Many in Ukraine fear Trump’s return to the White House would leave Eastern Europe vulnerable.

Fewer than 5% of American voters consider foreign policy a top issue, according to polls, suggesting that Russia’s war on Ukraine has not played a central role in the campaigns of either Harris or Trump.

Nevertheless, Trump has promised to “end the war in 24 hours” without providing details on how he intends to do so.

Ahead of the final US presidential election results, Euronews spoke to several Ukrainians about their thoughts on the outcome and its potential impact on their future.

“I’m really scared,” said Denys, a Ukrainian journalist, in an interview with Euronews. He is not alone. A Ukrainian woman living in Poland told Euronews that, for her, a Trump victory would feel like “the end of the world.”

Poland, which fears Russian aggression as much as Ukraine and other East European countries do, announced last week plans to invest 3 billion zlotys ($750 million) to boost ammunition production, according to a bill published late on Monday, aiming to ensure it has sufficient supplies in the event of an attack from Russia.

Since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland has become NATO’s biggest spender on defense in relation to the size of its economy, with the 2025 budget allocating 4.7% of gross domestic product for the purpose.

“The draft act aims to create opportunities to provide financing for activities aimed at increasing the capacity for ammunition production,” the bill says, with a particular need to expand large-caliber production to bolster the potential of the Polish Armed Forces.

If all else fails, as we’ve written many times in the past, Ukraine and the former captive nations must build a strong multilateral military and political alliance, a mini-NATO, to protect themselves against ongoing Russian aggression.

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

When Hypotheticals become Reality

Thanks to a social media follower, Oleg Kotsour, I was reminded of an incident that occurred years ago when I was a young journalist, relatively speaking, and I had the opportunity to ask President Bill Clinton a question about US-Ukraine relations.

The event is meaningful because of the history that has transpired before and since that press conference and how hypotheticals can become reality and like the shark in “Jaws” it swims up and bites you on the ass.

The setting: A presidential press conference on March 4, 1994, at the White House with President Clinton and President Leonid Kravchuk. I was a correspondent with The National Tribune, a Ukrainian American newspaper based in New York City.

It was taking place amid the euphoria of Ukraine’s agreement to eliminate its nuclear arsenal, sadly in favor of Russia. Earlier that year, the Verkhovna Rada approved the trilateral agreement and unconditionally ratified the START Treaty and the Lisbon Protocol. Then, Ukraine joined the NATO Partnership for Peace. Ironically, Ukraine’s accession to NATO continues to be stuck in the mud despite fulfilling all requirements and Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. Boris Yeltsin at the time was president of Russia, some six years before Vladimir Putin was to assume the corner office in the Kremlin.

“In our meeting today I strongly reaffirmed American support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. I urged President Kravchuk to continue to work to achieve Ukraine’s accession to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,” Clinton assured.

The two presidents shared views on developments in Russia and their impact on Ukraine. “We discussed ways to expand cooperation between our two nations. At the core of our agenda is developing a closer economic relationship. While Ukraine is going through a difficult period of transition, it remains a nation with enormous economic potential, endowed with abundant natural resources and human talent,” Clinton observed three decades ago.

Clinton expressed his view that the best way to develop the full measure of these resources, Ukraine’s most promising future clearly lies with market reform. “That’s why I was pleased that President Kravchuk today expressed his determination to move forward toward comprehensive market reform,” he added.

Clinton also said, “As Ukraine proceeds with reform, the United States is prepared to mobilize support from the G-7 nations and from international financial institutions. We’re also prepared to increase our bilateral economic assistance to $350 million this year for privatization, small business creation, and other priorities, and to help Ukraine dismantle nuclear weapons we've committed $350 million in Nunn-Lugar funds. Total US assistance available to Ukraine this year will therefore be $700 million. This represents a major increased commitment to an important friend in the region.”

Life for newly independent Ukraine then was not worry free. In addition to centuries of Russian invasions, war and subjugation, Moscow was not pleased that on August 24, 1991, Ukraine finally declared its independence and broke loose from its yoke.

Not being pleased with the course of the questions and answers, I posed two of my own which dealt with American support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine in case Russia seizes Crimea and will the reemergence of Russian imperialism, which was previously cited in the bilateral discussions, harm Ukraine?

President Clinton observed: “Well, the United States supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine, and I personally have been very impressed that all the parties involved in the Crimean issue seem to be very responsible in their comments and their policies recently, so I think you are asking me a hypothetical which doesn’t seem too probable in light of the policies and the statements which have been made.”

Watch the C-Span link that I included at the conclusion of this post.

Since then that hypothetical in the minds of American officials but not historical records became an ironic reality. In early 2014 Russia invaded Ukraine and occupied Crimea and later than spring it invaded and occupied the Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk. Eight years later Moscow invaded Ukraine and sparked the first war in Europe since the end of World War Two that rages until today.

This scenario, that plagues the world affairs, harkens back to a question posed during the recent XXIII Congress of Ukrainian Americans – the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America – that was held in Philadelphia. Michael Sawkiw Jr., director of the Ukrainian National Information Service (UNIS) who would be elected UCCA president at that conclave, posed a question to a group of panelists discussing the war about what should be done to prevent Russia from ever invading Ukraine again.

Outside of giving Ukraine NATO membership and continually raising awareness about the never ending Russian desire to invade and subjugate all independent countries in its so-called near abroad, the international community should never allow the free world to forget about Russian imperialism and its individual and collective victims.

It has been an intellectual discussion about why were the allies successful in defeating Hitler’s Nazi war machine in 1945? On the surface, there’s no difference. A saber-rattling dictator threatens his near abroad, invades weak Poland and triggers a bloody European war that ends in victory for the allies some six years later.

However, World War Two became everyone’s war. Everyone had a stake in it so everyone anted up. Everyone equally wanted to end the war with an allied victory, Nazi defeat in order to restore peace, stability and harmony, and bring home the boys.

The stakes aren’t identical. Ukrainian allies, especially its near aboard that know the meaning of Russian imperialism, subjugation and repression, broadly support Ukraine and actively strive for Russia’s defeat and Ukraine’s victory. But still something is missing from this puzzle that keeps the free world from vigorously committing itself to ending this war. Is it local boys’ blood? Is it accession to NATO? Right now its Ukraine’s war but it must become the world’s war like it did eight decades ago. Everyone should have a stake in its conclusion. The farther the allies are from Ukraine, the more passive is their support, and the more they or some of their citizens need to be convinced that what is happening in Ukraine could happen on the streets of New York.

The Washington cannot afford to be gullible and naive in its relations with Moscow. The New York Post wrote in its October 19 edition that Putin outsmarted three US presidents. That was kind. Moscow has been outwitting America for decades.

Russians have always lived up to our worst expectations of their behavior. Ukrainian towns, farms, infrastructure and industries have been destroyed. Civilian men, women and children have been targeted for death. Dead bodies, burned out, rusting tanks, trucks and jeeps, unexploded ordnance and missiles pollute wheat fields and threaten the lives of farmers and their children, while unknown chemicals, petroleum and other liquid contaminants will seep deep into the underground aquifers.

Ukraine is not isolated on the map of Europe. The hypothetical that Bill Clinton discounted has become a reality. Now Europe’s health and existence are threatened. So for the good of mankind, it’s time for Europe and the free world to ante up and change reality on the planet. Supplying weapons that merely give Ukraine time to persevere and survive is insufficient. It’s time to destroy Russia’s evil.

https://x.com/OlegKostour/status/1847871877559308806?s=19