Ukrainians really do Believe They could Defeat Russia

In my post of August 31, I wrote that the widespread belief in Ukraine is that Russia could be defeated in its war and the Ukrainian nation could emerge victorious.

I wrote that at a gathering last month of senior Ukrainian government officials and Ukrainian American civic leaders at the Ukrainian Institute of America in New York City, this point – victory – was enunciated.

In a brief overview of the issues at hand, Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President, who is regarded as the most powerful official in Kyiv after President Zelenskyy, unabashedly used the word “victory” in his statement. I decided to pursue this in the Q&A and asked him to confirm that Ukraine’s victory over Russia is possible and it’s not a naïve wish of Ukrainians in Ukraine and around the world.

Yermak said, yes, and elaborated that all of Ukraine, led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is committed to that real end.

As pompous as that sounds, Yermak was not exaggerating – much to the irritation of President Donald J. Trump.

According to a recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), a total of 76% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine can defeat Russia in the war if it receives appropriate support from the West, including sanctions against Russia and assistance in weapons and funding.

“The absolute majority of Ukrainians – 76% – believe in the possibility of winning the war if Ukraine is properly supported by the sanctions policy and receives enough weapons and money. Believe that even under such conditions Ukraine is not capable of winning – 15%. The remaining 9% could not decide on their opinion,” the poll revealed.

KIIS noted that a similar question was posed to respondents in December 2023 and September 2024, but at that time it referred not to victory but to achieving success. In September 2024, 81% believed that Ukraine was capable of achieving success, while 14% thought it was impossible even with the relevant Western support. Sociologists stated that this indicates that over the past year there has been no significant decline in belief in the possibility of victory with proper Western support.

While an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians remain committed to resisting Russia’s invasion and reject Moscow’s latest peace proposals, as many respondents recognize that the war is unlikely to end soon, according to the survey.

Moscow’s latest plan, which includes the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas and recognition of Russian control over occupied territories, was rejected outright by 75% of respondents. Just 17% said they would accept such terms, even with reservations. 65% said implementing such a deal would mark a failure for Ukraine, and 69% feared it would encourage Russia to attack again.

By contrast, 74% of Ukrainians said they would support – albeit reluctantly – a settlement that freezes the conflict along the current front line without legal recognition of territorial losses, if it came with security guarantees for Ukraine. Only 30% would view such an arrangement as a success, while 44% saw it as a mixed outcome. A majority, 56%, still expected Russia to resume hostilities in the future even under that scenario. Indeed, this has been our belief as well – as long as the Russian imperial mentality persists, future Russian leaders will again attempt to re-subjugate Ukraine.

The survey highlighted strong willingness among Ukrainians to continue resisting. KIIS reported that 54% of adults not currently serving in the military were ready to join the Defense Forces if needed, including 63% of men and 46% of women. While 23% declared themselves “definitely ready,” another 31% said they were “rather ready.” Roughly 38% said they were not prepared to take up arms.

The findings suggest that while Ukrainians are open to pragmatic compromises, most remain wary of Moscow’s intentions and pessimistic about the prospects for a swift resolution.

Hungary, a member of the EU, has consistently opposed Kyiv’s accelerated accession to the bloc, arguing it would damage Europe’s economy and risk direct conflict with Russia. Ukrainian leaders, meanwhile, have insisted that EU membership and continued Western military assistance are essential to withstand Russian aggression and prevent further escalation.

Public opinion strongly favors maintaining ties with Western partners: 76% of respondents said Ukraine should continue resisting even if US aid were cut, relying instead on support from European allies. That figure has dipped slightly since March 2025, when it stood at 82%, but remains high.

KIIS noted that war conditions make polling difficult, and while the margin of error for the survey is formally around 4.1%, systematic deviations cannot be excluded. For specific questions on peace plan scenarios, the margin of error was estimated at no more than 5.8%.

Despite the strain of a conflict now in its fourth year, Ukrainians appear to retain both resilience and skepticism. The survey indicates broad rejection of concessions that would undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty, coupled with cautious backing for temporary freezes if tied to credible guarantees.

“Ukrainians remain determined to fight for their independence, even as they face tough choices about the future,” KIIS concluded.

The White House and Capitol Hill should take these percentages into consideration before criticizing Zelenskyy and his team for their so-called stubbornness. Nobody wants the war to end more than the President of Ukraine and the people of Ukraine. Nobody wants Ukrainians to defeat Russians more than Ukrainians around the world. Listen to them.