A Word to the Wise …

In the eight months since the start of the Russo-Ukraine War of 2014, the international community has reluctantly recognized Russia’s aggressive nature as well as its historical manifest destiny to subjugate Ukraine and the other former captive nations and restore the glory of “holy mother Russia.”

World leaders and national lawmakers have condemned Russia for invading Ukraine and occupying Crimea and eastern regions of Ukraine. The United States, Canada and European Union have instituted economic sanctions against Russia.

These comprehensive sanctions and rapidly declining oil prices have visibly hurt Russia, forcing it to issue a plea to the EU to lift sanctions in exchange for waiving counter measures but not exiting from Ukraine.

Despite daily evidence of Russia’s military escalation against Ukraine, military excursions around the world, and east European fear of Moscow’s aggression, western leaders are not taking their demands and threats against Moscow to the next level that would hopefully expel Russia from Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea. Their trepidation-laced procrastination, inactivity and rhetoric are only exacerbating the political and diplomatic situation and increasing civilian and military deaths.

The free world – and that geopolitical description has returned to relevancy today – is confounded about what to do next. Should it station more troops near Ukraine? Should it proclaim Russia an international terrorist state and expel it from global events? Should it provide Ukraine with military armament or lethal arms so it can protect itself and subdue Russian invaders?

Among several outspoken legislators, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is resolutely in Ukraine’s corner.  In an interview last week that appeared in Euronews.com, McCain urged the White House to demonstrate global leadership and stand up to Putin’s belligerence and invasion of Ukraine.

“In other words we have to have a robust policy to give the lesson, one, to Vladimir Putin that he can’t just move across Europe,” McCain said. “I said that if we didn’t stand up to Vladimir Putin and help the Ukrainians that he would move further south and consolidate his control over eastern Ukraine.”

The Arizona senator said Russia seized Crimea, solidified its positions in eastern Ukraine, moved more tanks and equipment into Ukraine, and slaughtered more than 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers.

“Are you worried about provoking Vladimir Putin? Are you crazy? Look what he’s doing? He is winning. He is, for the first time since the end of WWII a country is being dismembered in Europe and we won’t give them weapons to defend themselves. My, my! Listen those 300,000 people I saw in Maidan in sub-freezing weather, they don’t want to be part of Russia, they don’t want to see their country dismembered as is happening today and they deserve our help, by providing them with weapons. I mean, to think that we shouldn’t, and worry about provoking Vladimir Putin….”

Despite his pugnacious observations, McCain doesn’t believe that they would provoke a hot war with Russia.

“I know of no scenario where that would happen. But wouldn’t it be nice if these people who are having their homeland invaded to have some weapons with which to defend themselves.” he suggested.” I would like to see the Europeans, particularly through NATO, provide the Ukrainians with weapons with which to defend themselves from Russian aggression. He’s now got control of eastern Ukraine. In recent days he’s moved more tanks and equipment into Ukraine and he’s going to take Mariopul, so he has a land bridge to Crimea. Then he will be contemplating what kind of price he has to pay to move over to Moldova.”

Canada, among other US allies, is similarly on board with verbal and practical support. Its Defense Minister Rob Nicholson has called on Russia to get out of Ukraine, saying that what’s happening there is “completely unacceptable.” Ottawa is providing Ukrainian troops with millions of dollars of aid, including winter wear.

US military commanders comprehend the renewed global threat posed by Russia. General Philip Breedlove, four-star US Air Force general who serves as commander, US European Command, as well as the 17th Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO Allied Command Operations, has been warning of Russia adventurism since before the start of the Russo-Ukraine War of 2014.

Breedlove believes that US and NATO must enhance their military presence in Europe because of Russia’s belligerence.

“Because of the increased pressure that we feel in Eastern Europe now, and because of the assurance measures that we are taking in the Baltics, in Poland and in Romania, we require additional rotational presence. What we are doing is working with the Army and other services to use their regionally aligned forces to get them forward, to get their experience forward, to bring that capability to interact with our partners and allies,” he said.

Breedlove told Department of Defense News that among the challenges faced by the European military command is a revanchist Russia.

Noting the recent uptick in Russian air incursions over Europe, Breedlove said, “What is significant is that across history, most of these incursions have been very small groups of airplanes, sometimes singletons or at most, two aircraft. What you saw this past week was a larger, more complex formation of aircraft carrying out a little deeper -- and I would say a little bit more provocative -- flight path.”

He criticized the Ukraine-Russia border as being wide open and completely porous with “Russian equipment, resupply, training flows back and forth freely across that interborder space.”

Breedlove earlier this month strongly warned that Russia is seeking to militarize Crimea. He said Moscow’s actions are forcing the West to beef up its military capabilities, and it is discussing plans to put aircraft in Ukraine’s Crimea region that have a full range of capabilities, including possibly tactical nuclear weapons.

“Hybrid war is what we are coming to call what Russia has done clearly in Crimea and in eastern Ukraine,” Breedlove indicated, saying that Moscow has brought military, political and economic pressure on Ukraine, eroding the border and shifting it toward a line of demarcation further west. “I’m concerned that the conditions are there that could create a frozen conflict,” one that creates a new reality.

A frozen conflict would be devastating for Ukraine, potentially mirroring the one that exists in the Middle East with random urban terrorist attacks, bombing and drive-by shootings taking countless innocent lives from Luhansk to Lviv.

Breedlove, speaking later in the Bulgarian capital of Sofia, said: “What worries me the most is that we have a situation now that the former international border between Ukraine and Russia is completely porous, it is completely wide open.”

He added: “Forces, money, support, supplies, weapons are flowing back and forth across this border completely at will and that is not a good situation.”

“Across the last two days we have seen the same thing that OSCE is reporting. We have seen columns of Russian equipment – primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops – entering into Ukraine,” Breedlove said. "I am concerned about the increased movement."

During his all-important visit to Ukraine last week, when he met with President Poroshenko and other top officials, Breedlove emphasized the strategic importance of Crimea, saying at a press conference: “We are very concerned with the militarization of Crimea. The capabilities that are being installed in Crimea will bring an effect on almost the entire Black Sea.”

He said cruise and surface-to-air missiles on the peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine in March, could be used to “exert influence” over the strategic region.

Russian militarization of Crimea and the Black Sea region will pose definite, amplified problems for Turkey, Greece, the European Union, NATO as well as Ukraine and destabilize the region. Polish news media took note of Breedlove’s comments about Russia’s militarization of Crimea, saying that it could lead to Moscow’s expansion throughout the eastern European and Black Sea region.

While in Ukraine, Breedlove made his boldest warning, saying that Russia has enough troops along Ukraine’s border to mount a major incursion and Moscow is using its military might to affect political developments inside Ukraine. He said a large number of Russian troops are active inside Ukraine, training and advising separatist rebels.

“We are going to help Ukraine’s military to increase its capacities and capabilities through interaction with US and European command,” Breedlove said, adding that it “will make them ever more interoperable with our forces.”

Another high-ranking military professional, Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling (ret.), who commanded the 1st Armored Division and US Army Europe before retiring in 2013, has advocated more aid for Ukraine. He said in a recent interview with Army Times:

“My military background has taught me that those who adapt during conflict the fastest, tend to survive. Ukraine is adapting, and fast. Faster than they have in the past.

“They are no longer talking about gradual change, eradication of corruption, elimination of the old guard, budget reform, and military transformation. They have developed plans to do all these things, and they have a group of young mavericks who are smart and up to the task of leading and acting. War and the specter of potential destruction provide a passion and energized focus that quickly overcomes inertia.

“We must help them. Vice President Biden also visited Ukraine in November, and while he likely did not give Ukraine all the support they need, I sincerely hope he has offered more support in a variety of areas. The U.S. needs to continue actively supporting Ukraine, even as we are faced with other crisis.

“We must expand economic sanctions against Russia. We must find new ways to counter the information campaign Mr. Putin is waging. We must influence NATO and EU nations to make the continued hard choices that show Mr. Putin we stand united in not allowing this attack on a sovereign nation to stand. And, we must increase our training, advising, and assisting Ukraine's military in the face of bold aggression.”

Indeed, one aggressive response by NATO could be a new fast-reaction force, considered the centerpiece of its response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Unfortunately, it is proving harder to set up than expected because of shortages of vital equipment and arguments over funding. NATO leaders meeting in Wales in September agreed on a new “spearhead” force of up to 5,000 ground troops with air, sea and special forces support as part of a plan to reassure eastern European allies nervous about Russia’s actions in Ukraine. NATO leaders envisioned a force able to quickly reinforce eastern Europe in case of trouble. Some units would be ready to move in two days, compared with the five needed by NATO’s current response force.

“We’ve found that standing up that capability has more difficulty involved than perhaps the alliance expected when it took the decision at Wales,” Britain’s ambassador to NATO, Adam Thomson, was quoted as saying. “We have moved so far away from the capabilities that the alliance developed for collective defense through the Cold War.”

Faced with the prospect of having to defend themselves, Lithuania, Ukraine and Poland are planning a joint brigade that will provide an opportunity for Ukraine to learn from Lithuania’s and Poland’s experience of NATO integration and to develop efficient armed forces.

The plan grew out of a meeting between Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite and Poroshenko. Grybauskaite, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, announced that Lithuania would be providing Ukraine with military aid, but did not specify if this would include weaponry or be of the non-lethal kind.
Contrast these calls for aid for Ukraine with knee-jerk appeals for Ukraine to settle the crisis with Russia expressed last week.

John Thornhill in the Financial Times wrote that Ukraine and west must offer Russia a deal to end the war. Nikolas Kozloff opined in Huffington Post that Ukrainians should reconsider their Cossack (sic) pride in dealing with Russia. Samuel Charap said in Foreign Policy that it’s high time for Ukraine to bargain for peace with Russia. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy suggested the solution to the conflict in Ukraine can be the federalization and decentralization of the country. 

All of these are examples of panic talk by officials and pundits who do not have any creative ideas in their minds except not wanting to embarrass Russia by forcing it to concede defeat in Ukraine.

The onus of a solution must not be placed on Ukraine, which did not invade Russia. Ukraine is the victim not only of this Russian invasion but of nearly 400 years of Russian occupation, persecution and russification.

The free world must force Russia to admit its flawed scheme, withdraw its army from Ukraine, cease aiding its mercenaries and pay reparations. The free world must support Ukraine at all levels to accomplish this, including increasing sanctions at a time when the Russian economy is tumbling every day.

However, NATO boots on the ground is not a viable option because it would be dangerous especially if a Russian regular soldier or mercenary were to shoot and kill an American soldier. The ramifications would be too difficult to imagine.

It would be unjust if Ukraine were to be forced to compromise. Once and for all, the free world must muster all of its political and moral strength, and loudly, in unison confront Putin for his aggression and stare him down to submission.

A popular contemporary rhetorical question asks what would happen if the free world were to step up its support for Ukraine and opposition to Russia? A more practical question would be is what would happen to the free world if Ukraine and the other former captive nations were re-subjugated by Moscow? Which way would the balance of power pendulum then swing?

Russia’s crimes have been exposed for everyone to see and a word to the wise about the scope of support for Ukraine should suffice.