With Trump in White House, Ukraine Stands to Suffer at the Hands of
Russia
Donald Trump’s second victorious election
to the White House last week was both historic and foreboding.
As the world waits for what a convicted
felon would do as the chief executive of the United States and moral leader of
the free world, Ukrainians around the world waited with trepidation to see if
the new White House team would in fact betray Ukraine. After all, Trump did not
express admiration for Ukraine as he did for Putin and the Kremlin.
The answer came on Thursday, November 7,
just two days after Election Day. Up until then, the current Administration
didn’t offer any qualifications or prerequisites for its support for Ukraine.
It was adhering to the premise stated two years ago by President Biden that
America would support Ukraine against Russia as long as it takes.
The former captive nations cheered
America. Old Europe probably moaned but complied because it understood that it
could be the next captive region.
US Cabinet departments until recently
echoed this steadfast support for Ukraine.
And then came one shocking revelation.
The US will support President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy if he decides to start negotiations with Moscow, State Department
spokesperson Matthew Miller said during a Nov. 7 briefing.
“It's not something that it is
appropriate for us or for any other country to push him into. And we would
support him in any process to try and ensure a just and lasting peace, but that
is ultimately his decision, not ours,” Miller said.
Miller also stressed that, per the UN
Charter, Ukraine has the right to maintain its borders, territorial
integrity, and sovereignty.
He added that the US has “seen no
indication” that Putin plans to “drop his demand to continue to gobble
up Ukrainian territory.”
“I’m sure there’s a negotiation that
Putin would accept where he gets everything that he wants, and Ukraine gets
nothing that it is entitled to under the law, but that is not a negotiation
that President Zelenskyy has been interested in, nor should it be,”
he added.
In political nomenclature, hinting at a hypothetical
conclusion is synonymous with expressing support for it in anticipation of its
realization. Miller’s clarification is enlightening only for Putin as he’s
waiting for an unraveling of America’s uncompromisingly strong support for
Ukraine. The State Department’s bureaucrat has open Pandora’s door to needless
speculation about something that Zelenskyy has disavowed since the first days
of the latest iteration of Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
Moscow now as the opportunity to convince
all of Washington that the world exists in a new reality and that Ukraine and
its ardent former captive nations allies must follow the beat of this drummer. Russian
Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu said two days after Trump became president-elect,
that the West should accept that Russia was winning its war against Ukraine and
negotiate an end to it. “Now, when the situation in the theater of military
operations is not in favor of the Kyiv regime, the West is faced with a choice –
to continue financing it and destroying the Ukrainian population or to recognize
the current realities and start negotiating,” Shoigu said.
A senior advisor to Trump echoed the president-elect’s
version of a new pro-Russian realpolitik, saying that the incoming
administration will focus on achieving peace in Ukraine rather than enabling
the country to gain back territory occupied by Russia. Bryan Lanza, a
Republican Party strategist, told the BBC the Trump administration would ask
Zelenskyy for his version of a “realistic vision for peace.”
What if the allies in World War II had
insisted that for the sake of peace, the Poles and the French surrender their
historical lands that were annexed by the Nazis?
Lanza opined “And if President Zelenskyy
comes to the table and says, well we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he
shows to us that he’s not serious. Crimea is gone.”
Lanza, Trump’s political adviser since
his 2016 campaign, didn’t mention areas of eastern Ukraine, but he said regaining
Crimea from Russia was unrealistic and “not the goal of the United States.”
“When Zelenskyy says we will only stop
this fighting, there will only be peace once Crimea is returned, we’ve got news
for President Zelenskyy: Crimea is gone,” he told the BBC World Service’s
Weekend program. “And if that is your priority of getting Crimea back and
having American soldiers fight to get Crimea back, you're on your own.”
Lanza said he had tremendous respect for
the Ukrainian people, whose “hearts are made of lions.” But he said the US
priority was "peace and to stop the killing.”
This dangerous, anti-Ukrainian point of
view is only a step from promoting the notion that Kyiv should also surrender to
Moscow Luhansk and Donetsk for the sake of an elusive peace. Furthermore, where
do the incoming foreign policy experts draw the line in their panicky pursuit
of peace: Kyiv, Lviv, Ternopil, Krakow?
The former captive nations as well as besieged
Ukraine believe that giving in to Russian pressure is a fatal mistake. Nothing
will stop Moscow from pursuing its manifest destiny to subjugate all of Ukraine
and leaders of Eastern European countries, who know the meaning of so-called Russian
liberation, agree with that mortal eventuality.
Zelenskyy on many occasions has said that
the idea of any concessions to Russia is unacceptable for Ukraine, and he
considers it suicide for the whole of Europe.
“And some of those present here strongly
advocated that Ukraine should make ‘concessions’ to Putin. This is unacceptable
for Ukraine and suicidal for the entire Europe. So what's next? Should Europe
hope for Kim Jong Un's sympathy that he will also leave Europe alone? No strong
leader who has helped build a united, strong and peaceful Europe could even
imagine that.”
At the same time, he correctly advised
that the tried and true concept of “peace through strength” has repeatedly
proved its realism and effectiveness. “Now it peace through strength is needed
once again. And there should be no illusions that you can buy a just peace by
showing weakness or surrendering any European positions or the positions of any
European country.”
There are hundreds of thousands brave
Ukrainian men and women in uniforms on the eastern frontline of Ukraine pondering
if they’ll survive the winter without suitable weapons and warm apparel. Both
are dependent on foreign budgets and funding for both is stalled. Monies even
for humanitarian projects in the USA such as U4U for Ukrainian refugees are again
stuck in a bureaucratic morass.
Fortunately, the Biden administration is
planning to rush the last of more than $6 billion remaining in Ukraine security
assistance out the door by Inauguration Day, as the outgoing team prepares for
the weapons flow to end once President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
The plan, according to two administration
officials who were granted anonymity to discuss internal matters, is the only
option the White House has to keep sending equipment to Ukraine to fight off
continued Russian offensives. But the problems are immense. It normally takes
months for munitions and equipment to get to Ukraine after an aid package is
announced, so anything rolled out in the coming weeks would likely not fully
arrive until well into the Trump administration, and the next commander in
chief could halt the shipments before they’re on the ground.
One big holdup to pushing that aid out the
door quickly is that the US can only send equipment already on its shelves.
While the money allocated reimburses the Pentagon for that equipment, it is
dependent on how fast new artillery shells and weapons can be produced or
contracted to replace them.
“We have been sending whatever industry
can produce each month, but the problem is you can only send these things as
they are produced,” said Mark Cancian, a former Department of Defense budget
official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The
administration could dip into the stockpiles and send equipment more quickly,
but it’s unclear the Pentagon would want to do that since it would affect its
own readiness.”
During his
campaign, Trump said he will “not give a penny to Ukraine.” Part of his plan to
end the war “in one day” – he is overdue as of today – is that he would the
Ukrainian president no more. You got to make a deal.” But if Russia is allowed
to conquer and subjugate Ukraine, it would only be a matter of which democracy
gets colonized next by the neighboring dictatorship: Poland, the Baltic States,
Moldova, or Taiwan. This is an important point, overlooked by the president-elect.
Ukraine, for all of its crimes, misdemeanors and faults, is still a democratic
country and Trump is willing to send it into Putin’s waiting arms.
In addition to military viciousness, Russia,
through its relentless violence, has thousands of unarmed civilians in Ukraine
and displaced millions. “It has razed Ukraine’s infrastructure and is
threatening global food security. Russia undermines our collective work
to advance economic security in the OSCE region. Russia’s forces have
waged a systematic campaign against Ukraine’s agricultural sector,
destabilizing global food markets. Moscow has sought to break Ukraine’s
exports at every link of the supply chain, whether destroying the food itself
or the means to produce and ship it. Russia has set fire to fields, mined
seabeds and farmland, torn up roads, bombed grain silos, and reportedly
rendered millions of hectares of Ukraine’s farmland unusable,” said US ChargĂ©
d’Affaires Katherine Brucker to the Permanent Council, Vienna on November 7.
Even as the final votes are still being
counted, Russia resumed it brutal missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian
cities.
Russian missiles, bombs and drones battered
three regions of Ukraine in targeted nighttime attacks, officials said Friday, November
8, as Russia mounts an intensified aerial campaign that Ukrainian officials say
they need more Western help to counter.
Since the war began almost three
years ago following Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor, the Russian
military has repeatedly used its superior air power to destroy civilian
targets across Ukraine. More than 10,000 Ukrainian civilians have been
killed in the conflict, according to the United Nations.
A 500-kilogram (about 1,000 pounds) glide
bomb severely damaged a high-rise apartment building in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s
second-largest city, in the middle of the night, regional Gov. Oleh Syniehubov
said. At least 25 people, including an infant, were injured, he said.
Russia is
unleashed two days earlier near-constant waves of long-range drone strikes
on Ukrainian cities as its troops advance in the east. President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy warned Moscow was firing about 10 times as many drones as it did last
fall. Missiles and drones for the most part are being manufactured in Iran,
which together with Russia and North Korea are waging a singularly devastating
war against Ukraine.
As well as drastically increasing the
number of strikes, Russia has begun to fire decoy drones without warheads to
overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses. Decoy drones carry a “3D-printed ball wrapped
in foil” to imitate the warhead of an Iran-made Shahed-136 drone, Yuriy Ihnat,
a spokesperson for Ukraine’s air defenses, told CNN. These cheaper drones
confuse Ukraine’s air defenses, which may shoot down decoy drones instead of
ones carrying a lethal warhead. Decoy drones now account for as many as half of
all Russian drones fired at Ukraine, Ihnat said.
The x-captive nations are still holding
fast to their commitment to help Ukraine overcome Russian aggression. For example,
the fundamentals of Estonian foreign policy have not changed because of the
American president elections. After all, Putin hasn’t changed his
objectives. He’s still waging a war of aggression with the aim of controlling
the whole of Ukraine and creating a buffer zone in Europe, pushing NATO’s
military activities back to the pre-1997 borders, which makes this an
existential issue for us.
The Estonian foreign minister, Margus
Tsahkna, on November 6 issued a statement, saying that Trump’s victory does not
change Estonia’s foreign policy aims.
“Donald Trump’s victory in the
presidential elections of the United States of America does not change
Estonia’s foreign policy aims and actions towards the United States because the
foundations of Estonia’s foreign policy have not changed,” the foreign minister
said. “Russia still wants to destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty and dismantle the
security architecture based on the European Union and NATO. Our task is to make
sure that Russia does not achieve its goal, and a just and long-lasting peace
is achieved in Europe.”
Many in Ukraine fear Trump’s return to the White House
would leave Eastern Europe vulnerable.
Fewer than 5% of American
voters consider foreign policy a top issue, according to polls, suggesting that
Russia’s war on Ukraine has not played a central role in the campaigns of
either Harris or Trump.
Nevertheless, Trump
has promised to “end the war in 24 hours” without providing details on how he
intends to do so.
Ahead of the final US
presidential election results, Euronews spoke to several Ukrainians about their
thoughts on the outcome and its potential impact on their future.
“I’m really scared,”
said Denys, a Ukrainian journalist, in an interview with Euronews. He is not
alone. A Ukrainian woman living in Poland told Euronews that, for her, a Trump
victory would feel like “the end of the world.”
Poland,
which fears Russian aggression as much as Ukraine and other East European
countries do, announced last week plans to invest 3 billion zlotys ($750
million) to boost ammunition production, according to a bill published late on
Monday, aiming to ensure it has sufficient supplies in the event of an attack
from Russia.
Since
Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland has become
NATO’s biggest spender on defense in relation to the size of its economy, with
the 2025 budget allocating 4.7% of gross domestic product for the purpose.
“The
draft act aims to create opportunities to provide financing for activities
aimed at increasing the capacity for ammunition production,” the bill says,
with a particular need to expand large-caliber production to bolster the
potential of the Polish Armed Forces.
If
all else fails, as we’ve written many times in the past, Ukraine and the former
captive nations must build a strong multilateral military and political alliance,
a mini-NATO, to protect themselves against ongoing Russian aggression.