European Support for
Ukraine is Sadly Uneven
European support for Ukraine in its seven-year war against recurring
Russian aggression regrettably isn’t universal even in the wake of the recent
escalated, mass deployment of enemy soldiers on its border.
Yes, countries like Germany and France participate in the negotiations
and hope the war will end soon for their own sakes regardless if Ukraine
emerges damaged or weakened politically or militarily. Bonn and Paris are
betting on a peaceful outcome of the useless, interminable talks, which are
merely platforms for Moscow’s dissemination of false promises.
However, there are significant bright spots in how some
countries are reacting to Moscow’s belligerence and treatment of Ukraine. Great
Britain actively supports Ukraine and the former captive nations unequivocally
stand in Ukraine’s corner. The latter experienced extensive repression while in
Moscow’s subjugation and are doing all they can to avoid a return to that hell
hole while building new sovereign lives for themselves.
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz
Blaszczak emphasized last week that Warsaw is closely monitoring what is
happening on the eastern border of Ukraine, and the situation is causing
concern in Poland. The minister knows intimately the ongoing goal of the
Kremlin’s benevolent and malevolent actions.
“Undoubtedly, President Putin’s policy is aimed at restoring
the Russian Empire,” Blaszczak was
quoted as saying by Radio Poland.
He recalled the ominous historical prediction lately uttered
by the late Polish President Lech
Kaczynski regarding Russia’s possible plans for its neighboring countries:
“First Georgia, then Ukraine, then the Baltic States, then, possibly, Poland.”
This not outlandish maxim signals the fear of all former captive nations that
when Russia launches its invasion against them, it will first have to conquer
Ukraine and then the others will fall like dominoes. If Moscow isn’t stopped in
Eastern Europe, Western Europe will then have to deal with its armies.
According to Blaszczak, Poland expects such an eventuality
because Russia did invade Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, when Crimea was
annexed and the war in Donbas began. Yes, there were also other Russian
military excursions in other regions before, during and after those events.
Blaszczak noted that since then there have been significant
appropriate changes in the region’s security preparedness and NATO. Allied
troops are now located on the eastern flank of the alliance, and American
troops are present in Poland, he said, and Poland is modernizing its army and
increasing mobilization.
If the region and world feel threatened by another world
war, the oppressed nations cannot be blamed.
Earlier this month, Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Prof.
Zbigniew Rau confirmed during his
visit to Kyiv a solid front of x-captive nations not only in defense of Ukraine
but their mutual sovereignty and security. I have repeatedly called for the
formal creation of such a bloc.
Rau explained his presence in the Ukrainian capital by saying
it “was to reaffirm our policy that Ukraine is not alone in defending its sovereignty,
territorial integrity, and inviolability of its borders – and, he added
emphatically – that Ukraine has every reason to defend itself.” That by itself
is an affirmation that is upheld by numerous international covenants including
the United Nations Charter.
Rau declared that an independent, secure Ukraine “is an
inalienable part of a Europe,” which remains true to the fundamental principles
of the Charter of Paris for a New Europe.
Despite Moscow’s hopes and plans to the contrary in the near
term, Ukraine must demonstratively commemorate its 30th anniversary of
independence with the enthusiastic participation of the free world.
In conversations with Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Rau said both officials
agreed that the Nord Stream 2 gas
pipeline threatens Europe.
“We see clearly that this project allows synchronization of
pressure—political, economic, and military. This pipeline, if completed, will
create a state of clear and present danger to peace in Europe,” Rau said.
The massing of troops along Ukraine’s eastern border and in
the occupied territory of Crimea should be taken into account when shaping and
conducting policy of non-recognition of the annexation of Crimea and violations
of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, he said. Then, addressing Kyiv’s
partners, Rau said this course of events should lead them to be prepared to
have “a serious debate on the scope and criteria of selective cooperation with
states that are in breach of fundamental norms of international law.”
He reminded his Ukrainian colleagues that Poland will take
over the chairmanship of the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and will represent all
participating member-states, which are interested in shaping a new Europe and
effective implementation of the principles of the Paris Charter and the Helsinki
Final Act, the latter being a historical document on rights adopted 45
years ago.
As Rau indicated, it is obvious that Ukraine and Poland have
paved the way to cooperate in strengthening peace and cooperation in Europe and
jointly countering attempts to influence the policy of European countries by
means of military and economic pressure.
Indeed, a breath of fresh air will then blow through the
European continent.
On the other side, there is the hesitant support offered by
Germany and France.
Last week, to protect its coastline in the wake of rising
tensions on the border with Russia, Ukraine asked Germany to supply defensive
weapons – the use of German corvettes, anti-ship missile components, air
defense systems and mine-clearing equipment, reported the Frankfurter
Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.
However, Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas did not agree
with the idea of supplying arms to Ukraine, according to the same newspaper.
Paris is not convinced that a normal border between two
countries is enough to contain aggression and has proposed that for the color
blind the free world should designate red lines with Russia.
“This is the only way to be credible. I think that sanctions
are not sufficient in itself, in themselves, but sanctions are part of the
package. I do prefer constructive dialogue, but to have a constructive and
efficient dialogue, you need credibility,” French President Emmanuel Macron
said.
“I think we have to define clear red lines with Russia,” in
order to be credible, Macron said.
He acknowledged that the international community has had
what he called a “naive approach” with Russia, which may be overcome with a bright
red line.
His argumentation belongs in the category of let’s go
through the motions of making a serious suggestion about how to end Russia’s
war against Ukraine – not, as most like to say, a conflict in the Donbas region
of Ukraine.
Fortunately, Ukraine has on its side the United States. Last
week the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee unanimously approved a bill to deliver military assistance to
Ukraine, including lethal weapons, to help the Eastern European country counter
Russian aggression. The Ukraine Security
Partnership Act would provide Ukraine with up to $300 million per year in
military assistance until 2026, $150 million of which is subject to conditions.
While it still needs to be passed by both the House and Senate and be signed by
President Joe Biden to become law,
the politically active Ukrainian American community will make sure that happens.
Russia withdrew its troops from the Ukrainian border, but large
numbers of its soldiers still remain in occupied Crimea and Donbas. Moscow’s vast
military machine is within an about-face of crossing Ukraine’s border. We have
regularly underscored this eventuality by naming this blog “The Torn Curtain
1991.” Ukraine declared its independence in 1991 – three decades ago – and then along
with the other captive nations finally destroyed Moscow’s iron curtain.
However, Russia is primed to repair it and re-subjugate the now independent
nations, some of which have come members of NATO.
Vadym Denysenko,
executive director of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future; Ihor Popov, Ihor Tyshkevych and Ilya
Kusa are experts at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future also
expounded on this possibility in their recent article on The Atlantic Council website.
They wrote regarding Moscow’s withdrawal from the border:
“Even if the immediate danger has indeed passed, Vladimir
Putin’s bout of springtime saber-rattling has succeeded in sending a clear and
unmistakable message to Kyiv that Moscow has not yet ruled out a military
solution to its Ukrainian problem…
“The Ukrainian authorities have no time to waste. What we
have just witnessed was nothing less than a dress rehearsal for the full-scale
invasion of Ukraine…
“Putin’s saber-rattling behavior is a wake-up call for
anyone who believed the Russo-Ukrainian War was no longer a major threat to
international security. Since 2014, Russia’s refusal to accept the loss of
Ukraine has sparked a new Cold War that has reverberated across the globe. In
this high stakes geopolitical confrontation, a dramatic military escalation
cannot be ruled out. It is therefore in the interests of Ukraine and the entire
Western world to deter Russia now before it is too late.”
Yes, it is up to the free world to prevent this from taking
place on its watch.
