German Think Tank Expects Russian War with NATO in 6 Years – if Ukraine Loses
Let’s examine what some on Capitol Hill are saying
about refusing to provide Ukraine with a wide range of military equipment in
its fateful, existential war with Russia. Yes, for the most part this disheartened
group of legislators is composed of Republicans, descendants of the GOP that
stood up in defense of the captive nations of russian aggression during the long
reign of the Evil Empire.
Basically, this gaggle of lawmakers preaches that this
first major war in Europe since the end of World War II is some 5,000 miles
from the United States; it’s Ukraine’s war not America’s; it doesn’t affect America;
we don’t want American soldiers fighting on the Ukrainian steppes; the war is
already too costly; russia won’t expand the war beyond Ukraine’s borders; who
cares; and so on and so forth.
On the other hand, the White House, NATO, the former
captive nations and, of course, Ukraine, believe that Ukraine’s future is not
only at stake. Ukraine is fighting russian aggression not only to defend its
sovereignty and independence, but also the freedom of the western world. If
Ukraine were to succumb to russian aggression again, the world would truly face
Armageddon.
The German Council on Foreign Relation (GCFR), among
others, believes that if Ukraine were to be defeated by moscow, its age-old,
unquenched territorial ambitions would turn russia’s guns against NATO and the
free world.
“With its imperial ambitions, russia represents the greatest and
most urgent threat to NATO countries. Once intensive fighting will have ended
in Ukraine, the regime in moscow may need as little as six to 10 years to
reconstitute its armed forces. Within that timeframe, Germany and NATO must
enable their armed forces to deter and, if necessary, fight against russia.
Only then will they be in a position to reduce the risk of another war breaking
out in Europe,” the council said in a recent analysis.
Actually, the council said that a Ukrainian defeat is not
necessary for russian tanks to roll over Europe. It believes that even if the
full-scale war it unleashed against Ukraine is frozen, moscow would have enough
cause to launch a military campaign against NATO. The German think tank’s line
of thinking substantiates the notion that russia regardless of the adjectives
that define its socio-political governance has always been imperialistic, militaristic,
and aggressive. These characteristics have been engrained into its national
DNA.
“Russia has consistently shown its aggressive
motivation over two decades. President Vladimir putin and kremlin elites and
intelligentsia have long cherished the ambition to restore russia’s powerful
empire and push back the influence of NATO and the EU. The historical
categories in which they think are based on analogies with the tsarist empire
and the soviet union. In their thinking, russia exists well beyond its current
borders (a concept called ‘rusky mir’) – it extends to any place where russians
have ever lived in or where the russian empire or the soviet union have ever
ruled. Putin does not consider the borders established after the break-up of
the soviet union to be binding. Countries belonging to NATO today include the
Baltic States, which used to be part of russia and the soviet union,” the
German study noted.
According to the analysis, it is moscow that determines the
timing, combining long-held motivation with a military buildup, and the
window for a possible invasion will open “as soon as russia believes that
an attack, for instance on the Baltic states, could meet with success.”
The GCFR indicated “Putin’s ideology and interpretation
of history already motivated the wars in Chechnya and Georgia. Russia’s
constitution includes a provision to reintegrate belarus into the russian
state; this is currently being implemented. In 2014, putin started the war in
Ukraine. Despite having failed to achieve even one of its war goals to date, moscow
has escalated the conflict into Europe’s largest war in 75 years.”
The
experts pointed out that during its war against Ukraine, russia has put
its arms industry on a war footing. The basis for calculating the period of
time for NATO to prevent a possible war by strengthening its deterrence
potential is the assumption that the kremlin will manage to freeze the war
against Ukraine. Thus, moscow would have time to rebuild its ground
forces.
“Any
troops or systems that NATO countries deploy only a short time before russia’s
reconstitution is achieved will not impact russia’s considerations,” the
analysts wrote. “russia would underestimate NATO’s combat readiness and could
be tempted to start a war.”
The
analysts place the hope of the free world on Germany, which must deliver “a
quantum leap” – “Within the shortest time possible, it must build up the
Bundeswehr in terms of personnel, expand arms production, and improve
resilience. This will only be possible if there is a change of mentality in
society.”
The question for NATO and Germany no longer is whether
they will ever need to be able to fight a war against another country, the
report stated, but only when. In its new strategic concept, NATO describes russia
as the greatest and most urgent threat to the security of its 31 allies and for
peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area. In contrast to earlier
analyses, the alliance no longer rules out a Russian attack.
One redeeming option for the alliance would be to integrate
Ukraine into the European Defense Sector.
“Europe should immediately begin to work with Ukraine to plan and
implement the country’s long-term integration into Western defense and
armaments. Ukraine is already part of the Western defense system. The announced
membership in EU and NATO will further strengthen this connection. Given that
the conflict with russia is likely to continue for decades, Ukraine’s location
on the border to russia and belarus means that the country will continue to be
of outstanding geostrategic importance to Europe’s security,” the council said.
The recalcitrant American lawmakers should study well
the topic of russian imperialism and the russo-Ukraine War and understand that
not only Ukraine’s fate but also the destinies of America and the free world
hang in the balance of their faulty pro-russian policies.