German Think Tank Expects Russian War with NATO in 6 Years – if Ukraine Loses

Let’s examine what some on Capitol Hill are saying about refusing to provide Ukraine with a wide range of military equipment in its fateful, existential war with Russia. Yes, for the most part this disheartened group of legislators is composed of Republicans, descendants of the GOP that stood up in defense of the captive nations of russian aggression during the long reign of the Evil Empire.

Basically, this gaggle of lawmakers preaches that this first major war in Europe since the end of World War II is some 5,000 miles from the United States; it’s Ukraine’s war not America’s; it doesn’t affect America; we don’t want American soldiers fighting on the Ukrainian steppes; the war is already too costly; russia won’t expand the war beyond Ukraine’s borders; who cares; and so on and so forth.

On the other hand, the White House, NATO, the former captive nations and, of course, Ukraine, believe that Ukraine’s future is not only at stake. Ukraine is fighting russian aggression not only to defend its sovereignty and independence, but also the freedom of the western world. If Ukraine were to succumb to russian aggression again, the world would truly face Armageddon.

The German Council on Foreign Relation (GCFR), among others, believes that if Ukraine were to be defeated by moscow, its age-old, unquenched territorial ambitions would turn russia’s guns against NATO and the free world.

“With its imperial ambitions, russia represents the greatest and most ­urgent threat to NATO countries. Once intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine, the regime in moscow may need as little as six to 10 years to reconstitute its armed forces. Within that timeframe, Germany and NATO must enable their armed forces to deter and, if necessary, fight against russia. Only then will they be in a position to reduce the risk of another war breaking out in Europe,” the council said in a recent analysis.

Actually, the council said that a Ukrainian defeat is not necessary for russian tanks to roll over Europe. It believes that even if the full-scale war it unleashed against Ukraine is frozen, moscow would have enough cause to launch a military campaign against NATO. The German think tank’s line of thinking substantiates the notion that russia regardless of the adjectives that define its socio-political governance has always been imperialistic, militaristic, and aggressive. These characteristics have been engrained into its national DNA.

“Russia has consistently shown its aggressive motivation over two decades. President Vladimir putin and kremlin elites and intelligentsia have long cherished the ambition to restore russia’s powerful empire and push back the influence of NATO and the EU. The historical categories in which they think are based on analogies with the tsarist empire and the ­soviet union. In their thinking, russia exists well beyond its current borders (a concept called ‘rusky mir’) – it extends to any place where russians have ever lived in or where the russian empire or the soviet union have ever ruled. Putin does not consider the borders established after the break-up of the soviet union to be binding. Countries belonging to NATO today include the Baltic States, which used to be part of russia and the soviet union,” the German study noted.

According to the analysis, it is moscow that determines the timing, combining long-held motivation with a military buildup, and the window for a possible invasion will open “as soon as russia believes that an attack, for instance on the Baltic states, could meet with success.”

The GCFR indicated “Putin’s ideology and interpretation of history ­already motivated the wars in Chechnya and Georgia. ­Russia’s constitution includes a provision to reintegrate ­belarus into the russian state; this is currently being implemented. In 2014, putin started the war in Ukraine. Despite having failed to achieve even one of its war goals to date, moscow has escalated the conflict into Europe’s largest war in 75 years.”

The experts pointed out that during its war against Ukraine, russia has put its arms industry on a war footing. The basis for calculating the period of time for NATO to prevent a possible war by strengthening its deterrence potential is the assumption that the kremlin will manage to freeze the war against Ukraine. Thus, moscow would have time to rebuild its ground forces.

“Any troops or systems that NATO countries deploy only a short time before russia’s reconstitution is achieved will not impact russia’s considerations,” the analysts wrote. “russia would underestimate NATO’s combat readiness and could be tempted to start a war.”

The analysts place the hope of the free world on Germany, which must deliver “a quantum leap” – “Within the shortest time ­possible, it must build up the Bundeswehr in terms of personnel, expand arms production, and improve resilience. This will only be possible if there is a change of mentality in society.”

The question for NATO and Germany no longer is whether they will ever need to be able to fight a war against another country, the report stated, but only when. In its new strategic concept, NATO describes russia as the greatest and most urgent threat to the security of its 31 allies and for peace and stability in the Euro-­Atlantic area. In contrast to earlier analyses, the ­alliance no longer rules out a Russian attack.

One redeeming option for the alliance would be to integrate Ukraine into the European Defense Sector.

“Europe should immediately begin to work with Ukraine to plan and implement the country’s long-term integration into Western defense and armaments. Ukraine is already part of the Western defense system. The announced membership in EU and NATO will further strengthen this connection. Given that the conflict with russia is likely to continue for decades, Ukraine’s location on the border to russia and ­belarus means that the country will continue to be of outstanding geostrategic importance to Europe’s security,” the council said.

The recalcitrant American lawmakers should study well the topic of russian imperialism and the russo-Ukraine War and understand that not only Ukraine’s fate but also the destinies of America and the free world hang in the balance of their faulty pro-russian policies.