X-Captive Nations Mobilize vs. Russian Aggression

This blog was to have appeared last night but in respect for the killed and wounded in the horrible terrorist attacks in Paris, I delayed posting it until today.

The historic words by Colonel Charles E. Stanton voiced in 1917 are quite poignant today: “Lafayette, nous voilà.” (Lafayette, we are here)

East Europeans and the Baltic states are not giving too much credence to western analyses that Putin has abandoned his master plan of subjugating Ukraine in favor of military incursions into Syria. Those x-captive nations are “gravely concerned” especially by regional Russian aggression and have initiated their own defense preparations.

Reuters, The Baltic Times and other news media have reported that leaders of nine Central and Eastern European and Baltic states said in a joint statement on November 4 they were gravely concerned about Russia’s “continuing aggressive posturing” and endorsed a sustainable NATO military presence in the region. (See also my blog “X-Captive Nations United vs. Russian Aggression, Monday, November 9.)

Despite NATO’s vacillation about its mission, the x-captive nations, the countries that were to be beneficiaries of the alliance’s military protection, still believe in its ability and commitment to defend their collective independence.

“We will stand firm on the need for Russia to return to respect of international law as well as of its international obligations, responsibilities and commitments as a pre-condition for a NATO-Russia relationship based on trust and confidence,” they said in the joint declaration.

Polish President Andrzej Duda said NATO simultaneously faces threats from the east and the south, necessitating “more troops, more infrastructure and more common actions” as he and his colleagues urged the alliance to take an active role in safeguarding their and by association global freedom.

Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukrainian Crimea in February 2014 and Moscow’s support for pro-Kremlin rebels in eastern Ukraine as well as its own involvement in the war have alarmed neighboring Baltic and Eastern European countries.

At the same time, leaders of the NATO alliance have been expressing concern at what they see as Moscow’s growing military presence from the Baltics to Syria after Russia launched air strikes in support of President Bashar al-Assad five weeks ago. However, NATO has been caught without an obvious workable response plan.

News reports noted that the x-captive nations’ declaration also said the leaders would join efforts to secure “a robust, credible and sustainable” allied military presence in the region, and would advocate deeper cooperation between NATO and the European Union.  ‘Hybrid’ warfare, cyber defense, energy security and strategic communication were listed in the statement as key areas needing their attention.

The statement was issued after a meeting in Bucharest, Romania, of heads of state including Lithuania’s Dalia Grybauskaite, Latvia’s Raimonds Vejonis, Estonia’s Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Slovakia’s Andrej Kiska, Bulgaria’s Rosen Plevneliev and Hungary’s Janos Ader.

The talks were co-chaired by Romania’s President Klaus Iohannis and Poland’s President Andrzej Duda. The President of the Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic, Jan Hamacek, and Deputy Secretary-General of NATO, Alexander Vershbow, also attended.

Unfortunately, there was no mention of an official Ukrainian presence.

The declaration continues East European leaders’ anxieties about their future in the wake of Russian belligerence that they have voiced publically or privately since the fall of the iron curtain.

At a NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in Antalya last spring, Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Linas Linkevičius emphasized that Russia has tested the alliance’s vigilance and unity, and called on NATO to ensure a permanent presence of its troops in the Baltic states.

He noted that activity of the Russian fleet had interfered with international shipping and legitimate commerce in the exclusive economic zone of Lithuania. As for the threats from the south, Linkevičius assured that Lithuania would contribute to joint efforts to fight the Islamic State and search for solutions to problems concerning migration at the European level.

At the meeting, Linkevičius called on NATO to continue its open door policy, especially with regard to Eastern European countries, and to keep the attention on Georgia. The participants also discussed NATO’s response to security threats from the east and south. The meeting was attended by the European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini.

The ministers expressed a consensus about the threat of Russian aggression and increasing military power, and the need to take long-term measures to enhance security in the Alliance’s east region and prevent any possible aggression.

Russia’s enhanced militarization and invasions have prompted several nations to announce plans to boost their military and defense spending. Poland is in the midst of modernizing its armed forces, and the Czech Republic also announced its intention to purchase more weapons. Nordic states also reported Russian aggression along their borders and in the Arctic, with Norway saying it needs to update its defense forces.

The Czech Republic has become the latest European nation to announce the purchase of new weapons to modernize its armed forces, Defense News reported on November 2. Czech Defense Minister Martin Stropnicky said the procurements would allow the military to take part in NATO exercises and help secure the country’s border.

“The reason behind this was, in particular, the deteriorating global security situation, which represents a threat to the security of the Czech Republic and Czech citizens,” said Stropnicky. “After a thorough evaluation of the current risks and threats, the ministry decided to make an effective and adequate response.”

The Czech Republic joins an expanding list of countries in the region looking to bolster their defense capabilities. Its military was expected to add armored personnel carriers and reconnaissance systems, as well as technology to prevent electronic attacks to its inventory and additional weaponry to be used by the army, air force and reserves. Prague increased the military budget for 2015 by 4.2% and was expected to spend $1.78 billion on its military.

Several Central and Eastern European states have also started cutting their defense equipment purchases from Russia and shifting instead to buying from NATO member states, Defense News reported. Slovakia said it was planning to replace old military equipment with new purchases likely coming from NATO member states.

Nordic states have also taken notice of Russia’s military buildup in Arctic with Norway announcing a need to modernize its armed forces, Reuters reported. Norway, a NATO member state, shares a small border with Russia in the Arctic where there has been increased military activity.

“Our neighbor in the east has built up its military capacity, also in areas close to us,” said Admiral Haakon Bruun-Hanssen of Norway’s navy. “They have shown that they are willing to use military force to achieve political ambitions.”

Norway’s defense forces would need more than $21 billion beyond what was budgeted for the next 20 years, Bruun-Hanssen said. Russia’s military actions in both Ukraine and Syria have created uncertainty across Europe. Norway also mentioned it was now facing cyber and terrorist threats, as well.

Norway’s Defense Minister Ine Eriksen Søreide said Western relations with Russia had been permanently altered over Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

“We are faced with a different Russia,” Søreide told CNN. “I want to warn against the fact that some people see this as something that is going to pass. The situation has changed. And it has changed profoundly.”

Other European countries have begun to modernize their defense capabilities amid fear and uncertainty over Russia. Poland has begun a military modernization program at a cost of more than $35 billion. Poland and Sweden signed a military cooperation agreement in September that also cited Russian military fears. Sweden said it had increased its own military spending by 11%.

“Once a sea of peace, the Baltic has become a sea of danger,” observed Polish Defense Minister Tomasz Siemoniak.

Russia has endangered the region and world and disrupted regional and global peace and stability. The x-captive nations are preparing to meet this threat by bolstering their defenses in hopes of changing Russia’s plans.

They at least deserve the active support and involvement of the US and the free world. G20 leaders have their agenda full this weekend, but unfortunately terrorist Russia is in their midst.

X-Captive Nations must Unite vs. Russian Aggression

Twenty-six years ago today, the German people on behalf of the captive nations struck a major blow against the Russian empire by tearing down the infamous Berlin Wall – the physical symbol of the iron curtain that Winston Churchill talked about and Moscow had built to preserve its colonial subjugation.

Germans wielding sledge hammers destroyed the cinderblock, cement and steel structure that divided their nation and the world, allowing the winds of freedom and democracy to sweep into countries that had been oppressed by Russia in some cases for centuries.

This iconic gesture gave hope to millions that perhaps for the first time in their lives the threat of Russian aggression and subjugation would go the way of the Berlin Wall. Unfortunately, the ugly head of historical Russian imperialism and belligerence is still sowing fear and death in Ukraine and beyond.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2014, other former captive nations – those that were in the USSR and the so-called East European satellites of Moscow – for the most part recognized the latest version of Russian aggression. They’ve expressed their support for Ukraine, condemned Russia and announced renewed efforts to bolster their defenses in case Russia turns its guns against them.

This has not been the case among the countries east of the Caucasus, where most have sided with Russia or haven’t taken sides. Until this month.

During Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s recent meeting with Turkmenistani President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov in Ashgabat, the host country expressed formal support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, according to a report from Agence France-Presse.

Writing in The Diplomat website, Casey Michel observed: “To date, Turkmenistan had remained mum in the 20 months following Russia’s incursion into southern Ukraine. While Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan recognized the Crimean ‘referendum’ to join Russia – although Astana later backpedaled, and now claims support similar support for Ukrainian ‘territorial integrity’ – Ashgabat had kept its silence on the matter, wary of unnecessarily provoking Moscow. But no longer. Nearly two years after the Euromaidan protests first began rocking Ukraine in late 2013, Turkmenistan has tossed its rhetoric behind Kyiv.”

Michel explained this move that he said made sense for Turkmenistan:

“First, the Turkmenistani economy’s tailspin shows no signs of slowing – hence, the outreach for new clients.

“Second, Russia recently unveiled a Caspian militarism the sea that has never seen in the post-Soviet period, effectively quashing any momentum behind a trans-Caspian pipeline, to Turkmenistan’s detriment.

“And third, Russia-Turkmenistan relations are further chilled by a drop-off in gas trade, with Moscow’s import of Ashgabat’s gas continuing its precipitous decline.”

He writer concluded:  “As such, these factors came to a head with Poroshenko’s visit. Instead of the bastion of neutrality Turkmenistan has long presented, Ashgabat suddenly thrust itself into Eurasia’s greatest territorial flashpoint. How – or if – Russia responds will be something to watch.”

Turkmenistani support for Ukraine is important because it shows Russia and third party countries that disapproval of Russian belligerence is growing. It also sends an encouraging signal to countries in its region that they should also discard their Russian yoke.

I have written about the need for a revival of a global democratic, anti-aggression movement akin to the Anti-Bolshevik Bloc of Nations, the National Captive Nations Committee and the World Anti-Communist League, today known as the World League for Freedom and Democracy. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin alluded to such an alliance in a speech in New York City a year ago.

The threat of Russia restoring its prison of nations cannot be disparaged as the 19-month-long Russo-Ukraine War of 2014-15 demonstrates.

Fortunately, some US military leaders have cautioned that Russian military expansion will definitely endanger not only regional peace and stability but also on a global level.

Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of the US Army Europe, this week warned that Russian military capabilities in the Kaliningrad region and the Suwalki corridor in Poland could hinder the defense of the Baltic states if they should fall victim to Russian military adventurism, reported The Baltic Times. At a meeting with US troops serving in Lithuania at the end of last week, Hodges said that Russian army brigades, a naval brigade, two military airbases, plus part of the Russian Baltic Fleet are already deployed in the Kaliningrad region. 

“Kaliningrad now has the ability to deny access of our Navy or any NATO Navy to come to the Baltic Sea,” Hodges said. “From Kaliningrad Russia can stop from entering coming into the Baltic Sea, and there we have three NATO Allies – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.”

He added that the possibility for Russia to block access to the Baltic Sea is a “serious threat to our allies and friends.”

Fox News and The Wall Street Journal also reported this week that US military officials have proposed sending more troops to Europe to deter the threat of aggression by Russia and have increased training exercises aimed at countering possible interference with troop transfers by Moscow.

The Wall Street Journal reported that proposals for the deployment of several US brigades in Europe were made this past weekend at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, CA.

The US Army currently has two infantry brigades based in Eastern Europe, totaling some 7,000 soldiers. One other brigade rotates in and out of Europe on a regular basis. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told the WSJ that he would like to send attack helicopter units and artillery brigades to Europe as well as more rotating brigades.

Gen. Philip Breedlove, supreme allied commander of NATO and a staunch supporter of Ukraine, told the WSJ that decisions on the proposals would be made “in the next couple of months.” Plans for a troop increase must first be developed by the Pentagon, then approved by President Obama and finally funded by Congress. The paper reported that funding for the troop increase would be included in a budget request sent to Congress early next year.

The discussion of such a suggested troop increase comes a day after Defense Secretary Ash Carter warned against Russian aggression in what some have said were his strongest remarks since becoming Pentagon chief this past February. He detailed Russian forces’ “challenging activities” at sea, in the air, in space and in cyberspace. Carter also said Moscow was “violating sovereignty in Ukraine and Georgia and actively trying to intimidate the Baltic states.”

“We do not seek a cold, let alone a hot, war with Russia,” Carter said. “We do not seek to make Russia an enemy. But make no mistake; the United States will defend our interests, our allies, the principled international order, and the positive future it affords us all.”

The x-captive nations can’t wait and hope for the best. They know firsthand the danger of procrastination. The Baltic Times reported that Lithuania and eight more countries approved a declaration in Bucharest last week, warning NATO about Russian threats and calling for increased presence to deter Moscow. Ukraine is hoping that the White House will recognize the global threat of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and actively participate in the defense of Europe and the world.

The former captive nations and the free world are caught in a dilemma – do nothing and watch Russia re-subjugate the Ukraine and the other countries or prevent Russian aggression and risk provoking Moscow into a war that would stretch beyond Ukraine and Syria.

“The challenge here is to deter further aggression without triggering that which you are trying to deter,” Gen. Milley told the WSJ. “It is a very difficult proposition.”

On the one hand, the former captive nations must unite to protect and defend their countries from Russian aggression, they must be supported in this urgent task by the US and NATO, the global political campaign against Moscow must continue relentlessly, and sanctions against Russia must be maintained – and expanded – until Moscow withdraws from the occupied territories.

Otherwise, what the West wishes to avoid and prays will not happen may come to pass by default.