Will Next Round of Trilateral Talks Bring Peace? Moscow Ensures There’ll be only More Meetings but No Peace
The world is looking at the upcoming three-way negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine with bated breath. After 1,718 days of the latest iteration of Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine the free world is rightly tired but naively hopeful. Moscow doesn’t want to end the war, it wants to re-subjugate Ukraine and rebuild its empire.Nonetheless, the United States, Ukraine and Russia will attend Moscow’s meaningless diplomatic ouroboros of bad faith—recycling the exact same maximalist demands, dragging out the negotiations to buy time, and then pointing to the lack of progress as a pretext to launch another round of attacks.
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are representing the American mediation team, even though in the wake of the midterm elections last week some have called for their resignation. The Ukrainian delegation is led by Rustem Umerov alongside intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, while Russian diplomatic and military envoys are representing Moscow.
The talks again will center on parameters for a potential settlement—including territorial security questions, post-war security guarantees, and mechanisms for ending active hostilities. Russia’s demands have been clear since before this war began — return Ukraine to Moscow’s concentration camp.
Ukraine’s position has also been declared: Kyiv will continue to decide its fate, Kyiv will not surrender an inch of Ukrainian territory, Ukraine will decide whether or not it will accede to NATO. The final point is also of paramount importance for Ukraine: security guarantees. Knowing Russia’s never ending desire to subjugate Ukraine, third party security guarantees are essential bulwark against future Russian invasions.
Following preliminary US-European consultations in Brussels, European nations pressed Washington to ensure European security concerns are integrated into any broader peace framework.
French diplomatic statements confirmed that European representatives will participate alongside or on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi format to ensure continental security guarantees are upheld.
Moscow has publicly signaled caution regarding initial US ceasefire proposals, stating through Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov that Russia cannot accept the proposed models “as is.”
American mediators continue attempting to bridge the distance on post-war security guarantees and regional control before the end of the year.
Moscow is largely sticking to its core maximalist posture, though the specific structural dynamics of the mediation framework have shifted.
Rather than offering genuine concessions, the Russian side is recycling foundational demands while attempting to maneuver around the new US proposal.
Washington is under immense pressure to force a rapid breakthrough, driven by an egotistical desire to resolve the conflict before key domestic and international deadlines.
The "scare" is not physical, but strategic and political. American mediators are operating with extreme urgency, aiming to bridge the immense gap between the two sides and secure a deal, potentially by the end of the year. This rush is fueled by political timelines and the immense cost of ongoing support.
In their eagerness for a resolution, American mediators are proposing frameworks that Ukrainian and European allies fear are premature or under-guaranteed. The US "scare" is that if they fail to force a deal now, the entire situation could collapse, creating a wider security crisis that will be even harder to manage. It will also undermine President Trump’s promise to bring an end to the war regardless of the conclusion.
This powerful visual and metaphorical assessment cuts through the diplomatic phrasing to show the true stakes: a Russia that views "negotiation" as a tool for conquest, a Ukraine that correctly identifies this trap, and an America whose rush for a resolution risks validating the predator's strategy.
Moscow's intention is to create facts on the ground while simultaneously standardizing its maximalist demands as the starting point for talks.
Russia pair's its core territorial demands—for the full Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions—with constant escalations of aerial bombardments of civilian homes. This also includes continuous strikes on energy infrastructure and military advancements, designed to physically weaken Ukraine and reduce its future leverage.
By insisting on the exact same terms—including Ukrainian "neutrality" and "demilitarization"—Moscow is not looking for a genuine compromise, but rather a surrender that validates its territorial captures and allows it to reload for the future. This endless cycle, where negotiation is merely a tactical pause to gather strength for the next attack, is the essence of the ouroboros metaphor.
The Ukrainian delegation is approaching the talks with profound skepticism, refusing to accept any framework that compromises its long-term security.
A primary concern is that a ceasefire without immediate, binding security guarantees—especially in a transitional security environment—would simply hand Russia a strategic victory. Kyiv fears any pause will be used by Moscow to rebuild its depleted forces, creating an even more dangerous invasion later.
The Ukrainian position is to ensure that any "freeze" in hostilities does not create a permanent security vacuum, which is why they are pressing hard for substantial, specific commitments from Western allies. They are guardedly watching to see if any real guarantees materialize from the US or European proposals.
In the meantime, Russia continues bombing, killing and destroying.
Russian cutthroats conducted a wave of drone and missile strikes on November 8, targeting critical infrastructure and civilian areas across multiple regions of Ukraine.
Overnight strikes hit the Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy regions.
A barrage of long-range drones and missiles targeted power grid facilities in Dnipropetrovsk, leaving over 600,000 residents temporarily without electricity as the frigid temperatures settle in.
Heavy strikes near Enerhodar caused a power loss to external safety and cooling systems at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, forcing it to rely on backup power.
At least 7 civilian fatalities and several dozen injuries were confirmed nationwide.
Shelling targeted port and logistics infrastructure, destroying a large food warehouse in Odesa and killing at least 1 person.
Dnipropetrovsk & Zaporizhzhia: Strikes inflicted heavy damage on transmission lines, substations, and residential structures. Local rescue operations remain underway to clear rubble from hit civilian sites.
It seems as if Ukraine knows its mission, Russia is fighting for its form of peace without honor for Ukraine while Washington is muddling on with no intention of standing with Ukraine.
