Putin: Waiting to Be Crowned Tsar of the World

Russia’s conspicuous belligerence is not as astounding as is the Western leaders’ paralysis and fear. Western intelligence services have been criminally guilty of not accurately analyzing Russian intentions and history, and anticipating its actions. This fiasco has been going on since the United States diplomatically recognized the Soviet Union in 1933, at the height of Moscow’s murder by starvation of up to 10 million Ukrainian men, women and children.

In the past 81 years Washington and the West have failed to understand Moscow’s objectives in Eastern Europe, the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czecho-Slovakia, the dissident movement and even the downfall of the Soviet Russian empire and the Spring of Nations.

Russia’s strategic goal has been victory and domination while the West’s has been containment and peaceful coexistence. Moscow is proactive while Washington is reactive.

The US, EU and NATO have been consistently missing Moscow’s signals in the false hope of not upsetting the sleeping bear. Vladimir Putin forewarned the world about today’s Russian invasion and seizure of Ukrainian territory during a visit to Kyiv in the summer of 2013. He talked of the brotherhood of the Russian and Ukrainian peoples and their reunification, cautioned Kyiv about seeking membership in NATO, warned NATO not to creep up to its near abroad, and laid the groundwork for the reestablishment of the prison of nations.

Consequently, the West’s docile manner led to a bloody Russian war in Ukraine, panic among the former captive nations about who’ll be next, and head scratching by Western leaders as they ponder what just happened. There has been a fatal dearth of assertive ideas and actions on the part of the Western leaders with regard to Moscow.

In the meantime, Putin has been busy dictating terms of surrender for Ukraine, its former captive colleagues and the West.

The crux of the matter is Ukraine’s intention to realign its foreign policy from Russia to the West. Not only by joining the European Union but also establishing a strong relationship with NATO – both win-win situations for Kyiv. Moscow adamantly declared its opposition to Ukraine’s membership in NATO.

“Ukraine in NATO would be an unprecedented challenge to European security, the biggest since the collapse of the Berlin Wall,” said Vladimir Chizhov, Russia’s envoy to the European Union, echoing oft repeated admonitions by his bosses.

“Our message to the EU is: don’t undermine the Ukraine peace process by supporting the party of war in Ukraine,” said Chizhov, referring to President Poroshenko and the patriotic forces that have surfaced in the Ukrainian government since the ouster of Viktor Yanukovych earlier this year. “Only the UN Security Council has the right to impose sanctions. But sanctions have never been an effective tool. The EU’s unilateral measures against Russia are wrong, unfair and misleading, based on the assumption that Russia is part of the conflict. It never was, it is not and will never be.” Actually, Russia’s involvement is not an assumption but a fact that everyone is aware of.

Russia has also denounced the EU’s ineffective sanctions that have not forced Russia to stop its invasion of Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement: “As for the new list of sanctions from the European Union, if they are passed, there will undoubtedly be a reaction from our side.”

For its part, NATO has been woefully ineffective as pundits observed that after nearly 65 years it still is grappling with an adequate response to Russian aggression.

Attempting to counter Russian warnings against Ukraine’s bid to join the Western alliance, NATO did assert that no third country could veto its enlargement policy.

“No third country has a veto over NATO enlargement,” Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told a news conference on the second day of the NATO Summit, adding: “NATO’s door remains open. Each country will be judged on its merits.”

Actions are louder than words and NATO’s passive posture resounds loudly around the world. Ukraine and the former captive nations are left to console themselves and hope for the best with President Obama’s inadequate words expressed at the NATO Summit press conference in Newport, Wales: “Our Alliance is fully united in support of Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity and its right to defend itself.  To back up this commitment, all 28 NATO Allies will now provide security assistance to Ukraine.  This includes non-lethal support to the Ukrainian military -- like body armor, fuel and medical care for wounded Ukrainian troops -- as well as assistance to help modernize Ukrainian forces, including logistics and command and control.”

Note the phrase “its right to defend itself” not “our collective responsibility to defend Ukraine.” As for the non-lethal support, we’ll believe when we see it.

In the scenarios of war that are played in the top-secret situation rooms in Washington or Brussels, the possibility of Russia launching a war against a former captive nation or any other country is no longer hypothetical. It is reality and the only unanswered question is who’ll be next and what can be done to stop Russia.

Artis Pabriks, Latvia’s former minister of defense and foreign minister, a member of the European Parliament, observed in The New York Times that it’s NATO’s moral responsibility to defend Ukraine.

“NATO and the European Union are both based on moral values that demand us to support weaker nations suffering foreign invasion who have chosen to become democratic countries. What is going on is a crime against humanity and we can’t silently walk away. This especially applies to our elected European and American leaders.

“Unfortunately, we have already been delaying such support and time is ticking away. We have to act now to avoid a greater disaster and to uphold our common beliefs in liberal democracy, freedom, justice and human rights.”

Will NATO leaders be able to look into the eyes of future generations if it fails to uphold these beliefs?

Russia Voluntarily Withdrawing Troops from Ukraine?

Reuters moved a story earlier today that sounded plausible but didn’t feel right. The news service reported that President Poroshenko said today Russia had removed the bulk of its forces from Ukraine, “raising hopes for a peace drive now underway after five months of conflict.”

I tweeted the news, noting that this a hopeful sign but let’s not cheer too loudly.

Reuters went on to report that Poroshenko delivered his remarks during a televised cabinet meeting, during which he noted that “Ukraine would remain a sovereign, united country under the terms of a peace roadmap approved last Friday, but said parts of the east under rebel control would get special status.”

Poroshenko was quoted by Reuters as saying almost in the next breath: “According to the latest information I have received from our intelligence, 70% of Russian troops have moved back across the border. This further strengthens our hope that the peace initiatives have good prospects.”

Have the Russians voluntarily agreed to abide by the terms of the truce? Have they voluntarily ordered their troops to withdraw from Ukraine? Has the truce succeeded and all of the sides are cooperating like schoolyard buddies?

Reuters certainly would have you believe that from its article.

However, checking the transcript of the speech, Poroshenko did not leave that impression.

He said: “Due to the courage and valor of Ukrainian militaries, glorious soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the State Border Service in June-August, we managed to significantly reduce the area controlled by militants.

“Millions of Ukrainian citizens, primarily residents of the Donbas, have been liberated from terrorist captivity.

“But our heroic attack forced the enemy to resort to the direct invasion of the territory of the Ukrainian state, the use of units of the regular army of the Russian Federation, massive supply of technology and precision weapons with experts who know how to use it professionally and who calmly kill Ukrainians.

“Human life is the highest value, and we must do everything possible to stop the bloodshed and put an end to suffering.”

As I have suggested previously, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard of Ukraine and the volunteer battalions had scored numerous victories against the Russian mercenaries and liberated many towns and villages from them. The victories ultimately compelled Moscow to send in its regular army in order to save the situation because Ukraine seemed to be on the verge of defeating Russia – an outcome that the European Union is deathly afraid of.

While citing the victories at the beginning of his speech, Poroshenko referred to the 70% almost at the end of it.

“I would like to provide recent data from the main intelligence directorate: 70% of Russian troops had been withdrawn from Ukraine. It creates grounds for the prospects of peace initiatives. Today, future developments depend on our joint efficient and coordinated work, on the unity of the whole country.

“We are going to establish order in the organization of management of troops, when the front line, the line of defense will be maintained by the brigades, when battalions of territorial defense will have their own tasks not in direct clash with the enemy, but in the defense of territory. When integrated units of the Ministry of the Interior will have their own function and protect the cities liberated from occupants,” he said.

In the middle of his address, Poroshenko was as inspiring and steadfast as he has been since becoming president. He said the truce was declared during difficult conditions and the terrorists have been periodically provoking Ukrainian troops – Ukrainian soliders and civilians were killed during the ceasefire. He also assured his listeners that Ukraine did not make any concessions regarding its territorial integrity and political system.

Poroshenko stated: “Once again I emphasize, this is a war for the independence of Ukraine, for the existence of our country. We will not surrender the issue of sovereign government, the issue of the independence or territorial integrity issues to anyone.

“We remain a unitary state.

“The very idea that every meter of the Ukrainian land will burn under the feet of invaders should become a factor restraining from large-scale invasion.

“Strengthening the defense is a way to fight for peace.

“We do not want war, we want peace, but if you want peace, we must keep the powder dry.”

He also warned that war could return to Ukraine at any time and consequently all Ukrainians must be prepared for it.

“We shouldn't take off our guard and should remember that war can emerge anywhere. We must explain to the people of Ukraine, which deserves fair and open discussion, what is the situation in the country, what are the threats for Ukraine, what responsible steps from politicians and senior officials are required. I have no doubt that we will manage to organize this. There will be peace in Ukraine. We will do everything for that. I believe that everything will be fine with Ukraine.”
Despite a vicious ground war with Russian soldiers and mercenaries and EU pressure not to defeat Moscow, Poroshenko has stood resolutely and bravely at the helm of his ship. He intends to lead Ukraine to victory and ensure that it will not be vanquished.

He has the right stuff to do it.

12-pt Protocol Agreements – 11 pts Too Many

The so-called trilateral contact group composed of representatives of Ukraine, Russia and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe met last week in Minsk and hammered out a 12-point protocol agreement that was to lead to a genuine ceasefire in the war that Russia launched against Ukraine in its eastern regions.

As for the truce, Russia violated it and Ukrainian soldiers and civilians were killed.

As for the 12 points, there were 11 too many.

The most important one was No. 10 and it stated: Remove illegal military formations, military equipment and militants and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine.

That should have been the first and only condition for the truce. Russia was to halt the invasion, stop the shooting and withdraw its regular and mercenary armies to a safe distance inside Russia.

Period.

The remaining 11 points are not conditions pertaining to the contact group since they are regular considerations that any legitimate, democratic government demonstrates to all of its inhabitants. Those points pertain to the Ukrainian government’s relationship with its citizens from the Carpathian Mountains to Luhansk and south to the Black Sea. They are of no business to Russia and the OSCE.

1. Provide for immediate and two-sided ceasefire – this would be guaranteed because Russian troops would have been removed from Ukraine.

2. Provide monitoring and verification from the side of OSCE of the ceasefire – yes, but patrol on Russia’s side of the border and make sure its soldiers don’t get lost anymore.

3. Conduct decentralization of power, including through approval of the Law of Ukraine “On temporary order of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions” (Law on special status) – all of Ukraine is undergoing soviet-styled decentralization and there’s no reason to speed it up only there.

4. Provide permanent monitoring at the Ukrainian-Russian state border, and verification by OSCE, with creation of a safety zone in the areas adjacent to the border in Ukraine and Russian Federation – a 10 km buffer zone on Russia’s side of the border would be appropriate.

5. Immediately free all hostages and illegally held persons – and bring to justice those responsible for kidnappings.

6. Approve a law to prevent persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine – no, those suspected of war crimes and crimes against humanity must be brought to justice.

7. Continue an inclusive national dialogue – yes.

8. Take measures to improve the humanitarian situation in Donbas – Kyiv takes care of its citizens everywhere and those in war ravaged eastern Ukraine will benefit first.

9. Conduct early local elections in accordance with the Law of Ukraine “On temporary order of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions” (Law on special status) – not without including a program for all of Ukrainian regions.

10. Approve a program for economic development of Donbas and renew the vital functions of the region – yes.

11. Give guarantees of personal security for participants of consultations – as for the Russians, remember which side of the border is your side and stay there.

AI: Evidence of War Crimes & Russian Involvement

Amnesty International, the US-based human rights NGO, has uncovered mounting evidence of war crimes in eastern Ukraine as well as Russian involvement in them, according to its statement released on September 7.

Amnesty International accused Russia of fuelling what it called separatist crimes as it revealed satellite images indicating a build-up of Russian armor and artillery in eastern Ukraine.

The Ukrainian government, international organizations as well as NATO have offered similar evidence of not only Russia’s build up on Ukraine’s borders but also of Russian regular army’s invasion of Ukraine, abetting Russian mercenaries already battling Ukrainian armed forces.

“All sides in this conflict have shown disregard for civilian lives and are blatantly violating their international obligations,” Salil Shetty, Amnesty International’s Secretary General, who is expected to travel to Kyiv and Moscow in the coming days, said in the statement.
“Our evidence shows that Russia is fuelling the conflict, both through direct interference and by supporting the separatists in the East. Russia must stop the steady flow of weapons and other support to an insurgent force heavily implicated in gross human rights violations.”
Amnesty International said its researchers on the ground in eastern Ukraine have documented incidents of indiscriminate shelling, abductions, torture, and killings. 

The images offered by AI show new artillery positions being established just inside the Ukrainian border between 13 and 29 August, including what appear to be 122-mm Howitzer D-30 artillery units in firing positions pointed toward the west. Two of the positions have a support vehicle and what looks like bunkers. On 29 August, six armoured amphibious vehicles (likely BRDM-2s) can be seen.
Another similar artillery position can be seen in a field northeast of the first, also within Ukrainian territory. Imagery from 26 August 2014 shows six relatively advanced self-propelled howitzers (likely 2S19 Msta-S 152-mm) in firing positions facing southwest at Ukrainian army locations.
Between 26 and 29 August 2014 the artillery has been moved into a west facing firing position still within Ukraine. On August 29 the imagery shows what look like numerous military vehicles in the area along the tree line and in the neighboring field.
“These satellite images, coupled with reports of Russian troops captured inside Ukraine and eyewitness accounts of Russian troops and military vehicles rolling across the border, leave no doubt that this is now an international armed conflict,” said Shetty.
Amnesty International also said its researchers on the ground in eastern Ukraine interviewed eyewitnesses fleeing from fighting near Alechevsk, Donetsk, Kramatorsk, Krasny Luch, Lisichansk, Lugansk, Rubeznoe, Pervomaisk and Slovyansk. Researchers also interviewed Ukrainian refugees in the Rostov region of Russia.
Civilians from these areas told Amnesty International that the Ukrainian government forces subjected their neighbourhoods to heavy shelling. Their testimonies suggest that the attacks were indiscriminate and may amount to war crimes. Witnesses also said that separatist fighters abducted, tortured, and killed their neighbours.
In an illustrative incident, residents of Slovyansk told Amnesty International that separatist fighters kidnapped a local pastor, two of his sons and two churchgoers, and requested a $50,000 ransom for their release. By the time the local community managed to collect the requested ransom, the witnesses said, the captors had killed all of the men.  
Amnesty International has also received credible reports of abductions and beatings carried out by volunteer battalions operating alongside regular Ukrainian armed forces.

“Civilians in Ukraine deserve protection and justice,” Salil Shetty said. “Without a thorough and independent investigation, there’s a real risk Ukrainians will harbour the scars of this war for generations.” 

Amnesty International is just the latest major organization to categorically state that Russia is perpetrating war crimes and abetting their commission in eastern Ukraine. Russia has been accused of this offense by Washington, OSCE, EU institutions and the United Nations, and Putin couldn’t care less. It’s as if he doesn’t care what the world thinks of him. He has a mission – to re-subjugate Ukraine and the other former captive nations – and nothing seems to be able to stay him from reaching his goal.

Russian Nuclear Threats Persist

Russian Army Gen. Yuri Yakubov has launched a campaign to officially adjust Russia’s military doctrine to allow for a pre-emptive nuclear attack against the USA and NATO, reported Interfax, according to the website Newsmax.com.

Yakubov said the doctrine, last revised in 2010, should be updated to classify the USA and other NATO members as the main enemy of Russia.

His efforts should not be misinterpreted as meaning that Russian military doctrine is docile. The latest version does champion the Russian manifest destiny of spreading Russia’s influence to the so-called near abroad—the former captive nations—as well as to restore the imperial glory of Mother Russia.

Furthermore, taken in the context of recent nuclear threats against USA and Ukraine as well as reports of Putin’s desire to invade other countries, a belligerent, nuclear armed Russia that is not afraid to use its weapons of mass destruction should cause civilized world leaders to consider how to save mankind from Russian insanity.

Last week Putin told children at a Kremlin-sponsored youth camp, “I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers.”

Yakubov, who is from the defense ministry’s inspector general’s office, also said in prepared remarks that appeared in Moscow Times, it is time “to hash out the conditions under which Russia could carry out a pre-emptive strike with the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces."

Russia warned Saturday that this time it would react if the European Union imposed fresh economic sanctions against it for invading Ukraine.

“As for the new list of sanctions from the European Union, if they are passed, there will undoubtedly be a reaction from our side,” the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement. Today the Kremlin said it would suspend air flights to countries that institute sanctions.

Moscow said that by announcing new sanctions that are expected to be formally approved on Monday, the EUs leadership “is practically sending a signal of direct support to the ‘party of war’ in Kyiv, which is not happy with the results of the Minsk meeting,” Russia’s foreign ministry said. “Instead of feverishly searching for ways to hurt the economies of its own countries and Russia, the European Union would do better to work on supporting the economic revival of the Donbass region” of eastern Ukraine, it added.

Moscow continues to excel at twisting agreements into sounding as if it is beyond reproach. Western leaders should be very leery of ever allowing Russia to return to the table of global diplomacy because sooner or later Moscow will resume its dyed-in-the-wool belligerent behavior.

Enough of NATO’s Benevolence: 4 Turn Backs on Ukraine

The NATO summit in Wales last week almost sounded as a love fest with Ukraine in the center of everyone’s attention. Words of support by the five NATO countries rained down upon Ukraine and President Poroshenko was thrilled by this historic display of favoritism toward Ukraine.

And then came the morning after.

Four NATO members denied Poroshenko’s contention that Kyiv had agreed on the provision of weapons and military advisers from five countries.

NATO officials have previously said the alliance will not send arms to non-member Ukraine, but have also said individual allies may do so if they wish. A NATO official contacted by Reuters on Sunday reiterated this policy.

“At the NATO summit agreements were reached on the provision of military advisers and supplies of modern armaments from the United States, France, Italy, Poland and Norway,” Poroshenko aide Yuri Lytsenko said on his Facebook page.

A senior US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, denied that the United States had made such a pledge. The official told Reuters, “No US offer of lethal assistance has been made to Ukraine.”

Asked about Lytsenko’s comments, defence ministry officials in Italy, Poland and Norway also denied plans to provide arms.

A Polish defence ministry spokesman, Lt. Col. Jacek Sonta, said by email, “There (was) no agreement concerning supply of modern arms from Poland to Ukraine at the NATO summit.”

NATO words of support in fact turned out to be cheap. Favorable platitudes touched Ukraine while strong condemnations were targeted at Russia. But the result turned out to be an updated variety of we’re sacred of Russia. No one is ready to call it an invasion; no one is prepared to publically offer consequential support. Ukraine is left to fend for itself – as it has always been forced to do through the ages. The NATO members, led by the USA, are only willing to compliment Ukraine like a storefront mannequin.

Truce in Ukraine? Tell It to the Dead

The much anticipated truce between Russian and Ukrainian armies in eastern Ukraine can be chalked up as another failure – again due to Russian violations.

An airborne officer friend of mine emailed this morning saying that Russians can’t be trusted – an often repeat observation in many quarters.  Russian soldiers have deceitfully bombarded Ukrainian military positions as well civilian homes, resulting in fatalities. Russian regular troops are also bombarding the terrorist organizations referred to as Luhansk People’s Republic and Donetsk People’s Republic.

Russian troops have been seen amassing in Crimea for debarkation to eastern Ukraine, he said. The city of Mariupol is also being barraged.

Moscow is attempting to create a supply chain to Crimea because it can’t provide assistance via air or sea. Russia is also seeking to divide Ukraine into two parts, hopefully seizing the eastern regions as it did Crimea,

“We are hoping for the best and expecting the worse,” he concluded.

Was this another NATO gambit to save Russia from defeat? Give it time to regroup during a ceasefire while it bombards Ukrainian troops and civilians?

The Associated Press yesterday reported shelling and other clashes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists threw the ceasefire agreement into deepening peril Sunday, two days after it took hold.

At least two houses hit by artillery fire blazed in the rural village of Spartak, which lies just north of the main rebel-held city of Donetsk and adjacent to the airport, reported the AP.

A man whose house was struck by a shell said Russian mercenaries had fired from a spot nearby, and that apparently provoked a retaliatory attack from Ukrainian government troops.

A group of Russian mercenaries in the village danced and drank Sunday morning in celebration after what they said was a successful assault on a Ukrainian military encampment in the area, the AP reported. One said the group had captured eight government troops, though no captives could be seen.

Courageous Russian-language websites have reported that Russian mothers who are claiming the dead bodies of their soldier-sons are not told where and why their sons have died. They are not allowed to see the bodies but only glance through a peephole in the coffin to see a small portion of the faces. Perhaps worst of all, they are strictly forbidden from crying.

Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine are also not aware where they are. In reply to queries by locals, they have reportedly replied that they are in the Rostov region of Russia fighting Ukrainian invaders. They could not believe when told that they are in Ukrainian Donetsk.

Kyiv said Russian mercenaries and soldiers targeted Mariupol after President Petro Poroshenko announced his visit to the frontline city in the country’s east, further damaging a four-day cease-fire.

Road blocks near the port city on the Sea of Azov came under fire from militants, presidential spokesman Svyatoslav Tseholko said on Twitter. Shelling and small-arms fire continued during the past 24 hours across the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, said Col. Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.

“I am not optimistic at all -- I have not been optimistic from the beginning,” Didier Burkhalter, chairman of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which helped mediate and is monitoring the cease-fire, said at a news conference in Geneva. Even so, “we want to give it a chance.”

Poroshenko is visiting Mariupol against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which the United Nations estimates has claimed at least 3,000 lives since mid-April. Poroshenko said Ukraine would defend Mariupol to the bitter end. He also declared that he is willing to fight and die in this war that Russia instigated. Not mere words uttered by the commander in chief of Ukraine, whose eldest son is also on the frontlines defending his country against Russian invaders.