Rising Tide for x-Captive Nations Own Security Bloc

One of the most vital contemporary security issues is the ongoing hostile global threat posed by Russia and its six-year war against Ukraine.

While most of the free world displays varying degrees of interest and support for Ukraine, the countries of Eastern Europe, the former captive nations of the Russian prison nations, maintain a unified position about the individual and collective danger of living on the border with Russia. They understand that by reason of geography and Russia’s insatiable imperial appetite they are in daily jeopardy.

Furthermore, these countries’ leaders use every occasion to tell the world that the fate that has befallen Ukraine awaits other countries across Eastern Europe and beyond. The x-captive nations urge the West to stand up to Russia over its invasion of Ukraine or else Europe could descend into a major war for the first time since the end of World War II in May 1945.

There is no specific evidence that Russia is moving its armed divisions up to the borders with the captive nations even though the lack of movement is really no relief because, for example, its invasion and occupation of Crimea in 2014 was not surreptitious. Furthermore, bullets and bayonets are not the only weapons in Russia’s arsenal. Moscow also takes advantage of psychological warfare, propaganda and cyberattacks in spreading its tentacles around the world.

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine vividly imprinted in the minds of the former captive nations, they recognize that the main security challenges of the region are related to the increasing military capabilities of the Russia and various military provocations, as detailed in an annual report by Latvian Foreign Affairs Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs about accomplishments and planned activities in its foreign policy and European affairs in 2019.

Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Linas Antanas Linkevičius, an outspoken critic of Russia, observed “It’s not just that we hear about threats but we testify them because they are real, they are not a big secret. Let’s remember the case of annexing the territory of Georgia, and recently they did so with the Crimea. We are asking ourselves how we can really resist it.

“If you are asking whether or not Russia is threatening our region, this is a different case. Lithuania is a member of NATO and the European Union, so there is no direct threat. However, there are insecurities in the region, and militaristic arguments are used in political debates. This is worrying and we have to understand it as a challenge and react.”

Linkevičius has pointed out that Russia’s threat, or hybrid war as he and others call it, is not only felt in his country but also everywhere around the world.

“It is not only present in the Eastern parts of Europe but also in the West. Inevitable are strategies used in war such as apply energy as a weapon, strategic communication, propaganda, cyberattacks. I think we should really take care of the threats and know how to resist them through best practices. We need to work closely so we cannot underestimate this threat,” he said.

Following a meeting in Russia about the status of temporarily occupied Crimea, Linkevičius had pointed out the comprehensive regional danger of Russia’s activities: “We can call them (Russia’s actions) as certain hybrid threats directed against us in the areas of energy and propaganda.”

Linkevičius correctly noted that Russia’s goal is to create the impression that the current state of regional and global affairs that demonstrate its stranglehold is in fact the “new normal” – so Moscow insists that the world accept it and move on.

“The legitimization of this ‘new normal’ by committing illegal actions in international law is one of the goals. Of course, dialogue and the impression of cooperation consolidate the position that everything is happening the way it should be, and that things are going the same way. We need to be cautious about that,” he said.

Linkevičius has consistently advocated a strong, united free world stance against Russian belligerence. He believes that every Russian threat and criminal action must be met with an equally strong response. For example, he said, Russian continues to violate the Minsk Accords, which are considered by some to be the last great hope for peace in Ukraine. “They (Russians) are testing their force again and look what the reaction will be. It comes alongside criticism of Ukraine that it fails to adhere to the Minsk Agreements, but, obviously, they themselves fail to do so,” Linkevičius said.

The countries of Eastern Europe and NATO cannot acknowledge Moscow’s diabolical plan and behave as it nothing is happening.

As for actual Russian threats on its border, a recent Lithuanian report indicated that Russia has based more tanks and bombers in the Kaliningrad enclave, which borders Lithuania and Poland, and upgraded its bases there to be able to deploy missiles including the nuclear-capable Iskander. The report also said there was a growing risk of “unintentional incidents” from increased military maneuvers on the other side of the Russian-Lithuanian border.

The Baltics, for one region, is also experiencing an uptick in hostile Russian propaganda which denies and twists real regional history. This fabrication mimics Russian lies in connection with the illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea in early 2014 and raises fears of an invasion of the Baltics.

There are Russian claims that Klaipėda, Lithuania’s third largest city, never belonged to Lithuania and that it was the gift of Stalin after World War II. This, Baltic officials say, parallels with Crimea’s seizure from Ukraine.

Minister of Defense of Lithuania Raimundas Karoblis and other military officials have told the British Guardian that they are taking very seriously the threat of disinformation campaigns orchestrated by Moscow that aim to destabilize the region.

“Russia is a threat,” Karoblis, said. “They are saying our capital Vilnius should not belong to Lithuania because between the first and second world wars it was occupied by Poland. It’s history of course, but Russia is using this pretext. Sometimes [the disinformation] is through [the government-run news agency] Sputnik, sometimes through their TV, but usually from politicians in the Duma.”

Karoblis declared this is a danger to the territorial integrity of Lithuania.

Lithuanians are officially warning their population of a genuine threat of invasion by Russia and were relieved when NATO dispatched 1,200 soldiers to the Baltic country.

Poland is also feeling this threat and is responding by creating a Territorial Defense Force to train thousands of volunteers for the kind of low-intensity hybrid warfare seen in eastern Ukraine, including cyber warfare. Also, some of the new volunteers will be assigned to protect Polish territory near Kaliningrad.

In response to calls for guidance from citizens fearing war, Lithuania’s Defense Ministry issued a civilian manual that includes information on survival skills and recognizing Russian weapons.

The best way to prevent war is to “demonstrate to the aggressor that we are ready to fight for our freedom, for every centimeter of our land,” former Defense Minister Juozas Olekas opined. “The capabilities, the readiness, this is the only way to stop Russian aggression in the region.”

The Baltic States have become concerned over the lack of defense from medium-range missiles, and Lithuania has taken the lead in attempting to address the gap. Vilnius has confirmed it is in talks to purchase new missile systems worth up to $110 million, amid concerns over potential aggression from Russia.

Comparing coronavirus threats with Russia, current Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks said Russia is a greater danger. He said during the pandemic Russia has concentrated disinformation and propaganda attacks on Latvia and NATO. “They have become more concentrated, because Russia sees that the pandemic can be used in different ways,” the minister added.

Pabriks cautioned that the world’s biggest blunder will be underestimating Russia.

Nordic countries too share a border with Russia and according to the Baltic News Network that region admits that Russia has become the largest threat to Europe’s security. In a joint declaration, defense ministers of Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Iceland stated that Northern Europe must expect potential crises or incidents because of Russia.

“Russia’s leaders have shown that they are prepared to make practical and effective use of military means in order to reach their political goals, even when this involves violating principles of international law,” stated an announcement in Norwegian Aftenposten newspaper. “There is increasing military and intelligence activity in the Baltics and in our northern areas. The Russian military is challenging us along our borders and there have been several border infringements in the Baltics. Russia’s actions are the biggest challenge to the European security.”

This sentiment is echoed by Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics and the current Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, who said Russia remains the key long-term threat to NATO, and the West’s passiveness on Russia’s military actions only encourages this country’s aggression. He paid attention to the fact that NATO’s presence in the Eastern flank is very modest compared with Russia’s aggressive military posture, especially taking into account the Kaliningrad region.

When – not if – Russia’s invasion of the Baltic States or Eastern Europe comes, it shouldn’t be a surprise. Moscow will be fulfilling its messianic vision of restoring its warped historical vision of being a great empire. It will rumble through the former captive nations like Hitler’s blitzkrieg did across Europe. Brazilian-born Latvian economist and CEO of the Latvian National Academy’s Security and Strategic Research Centre Jānis Bērziņš described this is a possible scenario, “Russia will not ask our Russians if they need protecting. It will simply come and will start protecting. But Russian military leaders do not think it is necessary to attack Latvia in a military fashion. Russia requires a buffer zone against NATO.”

Apparently Ukraine is the theater of operations for such a regional if not global war. Will Ukraine survive Russia’s invasion? Will the free world decide to defend Ukraine? Where will Europeans build the latter-day Maginot Line?

Polish professor, Przemyslaw Zhuravsky, and advisor to the Foreign Minister of Poland, believes the battle for freedom will go on as long as Russia poses a threat. “Until Russia abandons its imperial ambitions, we will have to fight it. This applies not only to Ukraine and Poland, but also to other countries bordering Russia. Russian imperialism has touched everyone – from Central Europe to the Caucasus and the Far East,” Zhuravsky said in a recent interview.

“We have new graves in Ukraine every day, we have them in Georgia and we can have them in any other place where Russia can destabilize. Since its inception, Russia - from the Moscow Principality - has been exporting destabilization to its neighbors. As long as this happens, joint action will be the best option. The peoples of our region are interested in the collapse of the Russian Empire. Others may negotiate with Russia, but we have nothing to talk about. Such a discussion would only boil down to the question of whether or not we exist.”

Fortunately, on the one hand, Zhuravsky had said earlier, the Ukrainian armed forces constitute a regional army to be reckoned with because of its battlefield experience. “The main priority of Polish foreign policy is to strengthen military security in the region in terms of Russian aggression, which continues to threaten Ukraine and other countries, and in a high state of combat readiness of Russian troops as a result of military exercises near the borders of NATO. In this situation, signing an agreement on cooperation in defense - a good step and complements the decisions taken at the Warsaw Summit concerning the strengthening of security in our region.

“Remember that the Ukrainian army – the only one in our region, which has a real combat experience in contact with the Russian army, familiar with the Russian way of doing hybrid war. It also has the technological experience gained on the battlefield that cannot be played back on the training ground, but only in a real war.”

However, unfortunately, he continued, “Ukrainians must remember that they are bordering on a bloodthirsty empire and cannot afford the mistakes that cost independence.”

Thus, regional unity and preparedness in the face of Russian aggression are the key to preserving the former captive nations’ individual independence and sovereignty and collective freedom.

Estonian Minister of Defense Juri Luik said NATO is an answer. “Russia has become a threat again, and the need for NATO is stronger than ever. This is the framework holding the European defense together – an agreement between states that allows us to continue pursuing our strategic goal despite the internal political flutters,” Luik said. 

Short of NATO’s visible muscle and the West’s tepid attitude, the former captive nations’ only salvation, as I have proposed on numerous occasions, is for them to form a regional mini-NATO, an updated Anti-Bolshevik Bloc of Nations (ABN), that would noticeably promote and safeguard collective security against Russia.