Polish Minister: If Ukraine Falls to Russia so will Europe

Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said in a major policy speech last week that Ukraine’s defensive war against Russia is “our war” and warned that if Ukraine loses the danger from Russia will only grow, reported Intellinews.com.

“This war will decide which actor becomes the third pillar of the new global balance of power alongside the United States and China — whether it is Russia or the European Union,” Sikorski said.

It would be a serious mistake if this war were treated as a distant or secondary issue, Sikorski said. A Russian victory would shift the burden directly to NATO’s eastern flank and increase the financial and military cost of deterrence for Poland and its allies, he said.

“If Ukraine loses, the danger from Russia will only grow ... In 2022-25, the EU and its member states supported Ukraine with nearly €200 billion ($234,095,000,000. Defending NATO’s eastern flank in the event of a Russian aggression would have cost €1,200 billion (1,404,660,000.00) at least,” Sikorski said.

To ensure that Russia does not consider attacking Poland or NATO in Eastern Europe, Poland must maintain high defense spending and build an “army strong enough to deter Russia,” Sikorski said.

The minister cited defense spending in this year’s budget at 4.8% of GDP, the highest proportion in NATO, Sikorski said.

Ukraine’s ambition to join the European Union is part of that strategic calculation, Sikorski said. Enlargement would anchor democratic reform in Kyiv and extend stability eastwards, however accession will require meeting strict criteria and sustained reform, Sikorski said.

Integrating Ukraine into European structures also enhances Poland’s long-term security, Sikorski pointed out.

Sikorski praised Ukrainians who have settled in Poland since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Ukrainians have high employment rates, contribute taxes and social security payments and help fill labor shortages across sectors from services to manufacturing, he said. Their contribution to public finances exceeds the value of benefits received, Sikorski added that solidarity has strengthened, rather than weakened, the Polish economy.

Continuing about the effects of Russia aggression in Ukraine, former Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė told The New Voice of Ukraine who should be responsible for Ukraine’s security after the war ends, outlining the roles of allies and long-term guarantees needed to prevent renewed aggression on February. 27.

Ukraine must receive security guarantees that would serve as a real deterrent to the Russian dictator, Ingrida Šimonytė said, especially as Vladimir Putin seeks to influence the debate on security guarantees in order to make them nominal rather than substantive.

“I think they must be real legal commitments. Not another Budapest Memorandum, which is a declaration of goodwill. This must be a political commitment. They must be ratified by parliaments. These must be real obligations of the participating states,” she added.

At the same time, Šimonytė emphasized that the main security guarantee will always be the Ukrainian army. “This is the security guarantee that has worked throughout these four years. Despite the fact that Russia is larger and has more manpower,” she said. “The Ukrainian army is well equipped and well trained, with all the new technologies it has managed to develop during the war.”

Another example of the former captive nations’ fear and distrust of Russia is Estonia’s plan to install up to 600 concrete bunkers along its eastern land border as part of the joint Baltic Defense Line with Latvia and Lithuania.

The Estonian Center for Defense Investments (ECDI) and Latvia’s Ministry of Defense have launched a public procurement for the bunkers. The total cost is estimated at €60 million, with about €30 million allocated for this year, ECDI spokesperson Krismar Rosin said.

“The first Baltic Defense Line bunkers have been delivered, and installation is proceeding gradually in Southeastern and Northeastern Estonia,” ECDI deputy director Asko Kivinuk said. “The experience gained gives us the confidence to move forward with the larger-scale procurement.”

Estonia has also deployed all acquired barriers to pre-deployment areas and is continuing work on the defense line’s anti-tank ditches. The ECDI aims to complete the Baltic Defense Line at its currently planned scale by the end of 2027.

The initiative is designed to halt a potential military attack right at the eastern borders of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.