X-Captive Nations must Unite vs. Russian Aggression

Twenty-six years ago today, the German people on behalf of the captive nations struck a major blow against the Russian empire by tearing down the infamous Berlin Wall – the physical symbol of the iron curtain that Winston Churchill talked about and Moscow had built to preserve its colonial subjugation.

Germans wielding sledge hammers destroyed the cinderblock, cement and steel structure that divided their nation and the world, allowing the winds of freedom and democracy to sweep into countries that had been oppressed by Russia in some cases for centuries.

This iconic gesture gave hope to millions that perhaps for the first time in their lives the threat of Russian aggression and subjugation would go the way of the Berlin Wall. Unfortunately, the ugly head of historical Russian imperialism and belligerence is still sowing fear and death in Ukraine and beyond.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2014, other former captive nations – those that were in the USSR and the so-called East European satellites of Moscow – for the most part recognized the latest version of Russian aggression. They’ve expressed their support for Ukraine, condemned Russia and announced renewed efforts to bolster their defenses in case Russia turns its guns against them.

This has not been the case among the countries east of the Caucasus, where most have sided with Russia or haven’t taken sides. Until this month.

During Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s recent meeting with Turkmenistani President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov in Ashgabat, the host country expressed formal support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, according to a report from Agence France-Presse.

Writing in The Diplomat website, Casey Michel observed: “To date, Turkmenistan had remained mum in the 20 months following Russia’s incursion into southern Ukraine. While Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan recognized the Crimean ‘referendum’ to join Russia – although Astana later backpedaled, and now claims support similar support for Ukrainian ‘territorial integrity’ – Ashgabat had kept its silence on the matter, wary of unnecessarily provoking Moscow. But no longer. Nearly two years after the Euromaidan protests first began rocking Ukraine in late 2013, Turkmenistan has tossed its rhetoric behind Kyiv.”

Michel explained this move that he said made sense for Turkmenistan:

“First, the Turkmenistani economy’s tailspin shows no signs of slowing – hence, the outreach for new clients.

“Second, Russia recently unveiled a Caspian militarism the sea that has never seen in the post-Soviet period, effectively quashing any momentum behind a trans-Caspian pipeline, to Turkmenistan’s detriment.

“And third, Russia-Turkmenistan relations are further chilled by a drop-off in gas trade, with Moscow’s import of Ashgabat’s gas continuing its precipitous decline.”

He writer concluded:  “As such, these factors came to a head with Poroshenko’s visit. Instead of the bastion of neutrality Turkmenistan has long presented, Ashgabat suddenly thrust itself into Eurasia’s greatest territorial flashpoint. How – or if – Russia responds will be something to watch.”

Turkmenistani support for Ukraine is important because it shows Russia and third party countries that disapproval of Russian belligerence is growing. It also sends an encouraging signal to countries in its region that they should also discard their Russian yoke.

I have written about the need for a revival of a global democratic, anti-aggression movement akin to the Anti-Bolshevik Bloc of Nations, the National Captive Nations Committee and the World Anti-Communist League, today known as the World League for Freedom and Democracy. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin alluded to such an alliance in a speech in New York City a year ago.

The threat of Russia restoring its prison of nations cannot be disparaged as the 19-month-long Russo-Ukraine War of 2014-15 demonstrates.

Fortunately, some US military leaders have cautioned that Russian military expansion will definitely endanger not only regional peace and stability but also on a global level.

Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of the US Army Europe, this week warned that Russian military capabilities in the Kaliningrad region and the Suwalki corridor in Poland could hinder the defense of the Baltic states if they should fall victim to Russian military adventurism, reported The Baltic Times. At a meeting with US troops serving in Lithuania at the end of last week, Hodges said that Russian army brigades, a naval brigade, two military airbases, plus part of the Russian Baltic Fleet are already deployed in the Kaliningrad region. 

“Kaliningrad now has the ability to deny access of our Navy or any NATO Navy to come to the Baltic Sea,” Hodges said. “From Kaliningrad Russia can stop from entering coming into the Baltic Sea, and there we have three NATO Allies – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.”

He added that the possibility for Russia to block access to the Baltic Sea is a “serious threat to our allies and friends.”

Fox News and The Wall Street Journal also reported this week that US military officials have proposed sending more troops to Europe to deter the threat of aggression by Russia and have increased training exercises aimed at countering possible interference with troop transfers by Moscow.

The Wall Street Journal reported that proposals for the deployment of several US brigades in Europe were made this past weekend at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, CA.

The US Army currently has two infantry brigades based in Eastern Europe, totaling some 7,000 soldiers. One other brigade rotates in and out of Europe on a regular basis. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told the WSJ that he would like to send attack helicopter units and artillery brigades to Europe as well as more rotating brigades.

Gen. Philip Breedlove, supreme allied commander of NATO and a staunch supporter of Ukraine, told the WSJ that decisions on the proposals would be made “in the next couple of months.” Plans for a troop increase must first be developed by the Pentagon, then approved by President Obama and finally funded by Congress. The paper reported that funding for the troop increase would be included in a budget request sent to Congress early next year.

The discussion of such a suggested troop increase comes a day after Defense Secretary Ash Carter warned against Russian aggression in what some have said were his strongest remarks since becoming Pentagon chief this past February. He detailed Russian forces’ “challenging activities” at sea, in the air, in space and in cyberspace. Carter also said Moscow was “violating sovereignty in Ukraine and Georgia and actively trying to intimidate the Baltic states.”

“We do not seek a cold, let alone a hot, war with Russia,” Carter said. “We do not seek to make Russia an enemy. But make no mistake; the United States will defend our interests, our allies, the principled international order, and the positive future it affords us all.”

The x-captive nations can’t wait and hope for the best. They know firsthand the danger of procrastination. The Baltic Times reported that Lithuania and eight more countries approved a declaration in Bucharest last week, warning NATO about Russian threats and calling for increased presence to deter Moscow. Ukraine is hoping that the White House will recognize the global threat of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and actively participate in the defense of Europe and the world.

The former captive nations and the free world are caught in a dilemma – do nothing and watch Russia re-subjugate the Ukraine and the other countries or prevent Russian aggression and risk provoking Moscow into a war that would stretch beyond Ukraine and Syria.

“The challenge here is to deter further aggression without triggering that which you are trying to deter,” Gen. Milley told the WSJ. “It is a very difficult proposition.”

On the one hand, the former captive nations must unite to protect and defend their countries from Russian aggression, they must be supported in this urgent task by the US and NATO, the global political campaign against Moscow must continue relentlessly, and sanctions against Russia must be maintained – and expanded – until Moscow withdraws from the occupied territories.

Otherwise, what the West wishes to avoid and prays will not happen may come to pass by default.