End of russian War won’t Result in Peace

Despite the displays of camaraderie, adulation, support, back slapping, respect, awe, and humanitarian and military aid at the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius, the leaders of the free world’s bastion of defense stopped short of inviting Ukraine to cross the threshold into the hallowed ranks of the alliance, disappointing its President Zelenskyy and Ukrainians around the world.

In lieu of immediate membership, the alliance devised a list of its commitments to Ukraine’s military capability to defend itself and then to rebuild its country. The consensus among the NATO leaders was to develop a multi-lateral scheme that would ensure Ukraine’s future as a free independent, democratic, and sovereign nation.

“We will not waver,” Biden vowed after the summit in Lithuania ended. “I mean that. Our commitment to Ukraine will not weaken. We will stand for freedom today, tomorrow and for as long as it takes.”

That takes the sting out of rejection.

However, the leaders had enumerated a handful of reasons or excuses for their verdict but none of them hold any water. Interoperability with NATO – done, battlefield skills – done, unique combat skills and superiority versus the enemy, russia – done.

However, their complaints about Kyiv’s tardy democratic development and the prevalence of corruption and graft are bogus complaints by those who realize they can’t lob any other stones at Ukraine because they, themselves, aren’t without sins but they’re afraid of the enemy, russia.

Consequently, the leaders of the alliance made their decisions from behind a desk while Ukrainians are heroically defending their country and Europe with their proven skills, determination, blood, guts and latest weaponry against NATO’s sworn enemy, russia.

As for their concerns about Ukraine’s war with russia, I’ll address that later.

Zelenskyy, who arrived in Vilnius with chants of Ukraine will make NATO stronger, was visibly and understandably infuriated by the decision that Ukraine didn’t make the cut. After all, Ukraine’s greatest attribute for being accepted has been its singular ability to stand up to unprovoked russian aggression, which can be regarded as the historic, anticipated battle for the country’s existence. The Ukrainian president had been travelling the world over, meeting with national leaders, urging, even pleading for Ukraine’s acceptance.

That gesture would have been the political shot heard round the world.

At the end, Zelenskyy was simply told Ukraine would be invited to become a member “when allies agree and conditions are met.” The answer itself was obnoxious.

Not surprisingly, Zelenskyy justifiably hit the roof, saying it was “absurd” for NATO leaders not to reveal even so much as a timetable. The conditions, he said, were “vague,” to say the least.

President Joe Biden, who sought to shine on the global stage, and his fellow leaders, in an effort to mollify the disappointment, did unveil a substantial multifaceted show of support for Ukraine, not really a consolation prize, but rather an eternal joint declaration of support for Ukraine aimed at bolstering the war-torn country’s military capability.

Biden acknowledged that the alliance did not invite Ukraine to join during the summit as the country works on “necessary reforms,” but, he said, “We’re not waiting on that process to be finished” to boost the country’s security. Biden has emphasized that Ukraine is not ready to enter NATO, admitting earlier that russia’s war in Ukraine needs to end before the alliance can consider adding Kyiv to its ranks.

“Mr. Zelenskyy and I talked about the kind of guarantees we could make in the meantime… And so today, the long-term commitments we’re making are backed up by the notion that in the meantime, we’re going to provide security to Ukraine for its needs and against any aggression that may occur.”

However, it appears Zelenskyy heard enough to return home satisfied, saying, “The results of the summit are good” in a news conference with the alliance’s chief. Among the moves NATO took was agreeing to remove one requirement for Ukraine’s entrance to the group – a Membership Action Plan – given Kyiv’s close relationship with NATO nations.

While sitting with Biden before their meeting on the summit’s sidelines, Zelenskyy reiterated that he felt the summit was a “success” for Ukraine despite his earlier frustrations – which Biden acknowledged during his remarks.

In an event with Zelenskyy and G-7 leaders, Biden told the Ukrainian president that American support is not going anywhere. The declaration, Biden said, “starts a process by which each of our nations, and any other nation who wishes to participate, will negotiate long-term bilateral security commitments with and to Ukraine.”

“We’re going to help Ukraine build a strong defense across land, air and sea,” Biden vowed, calling it “a force of stability in the region to deter against any and all threats.”

“The Ukrainian delegation is bringing home significant security, victory for the Ukraine, for our country, for our people, for our children. It opens for us absolutely new security opportunities, and I thank everyone who made it possible,” he said.

“Today we are launching negotiations with Ukraine to formalize – through bilateral security commitments and arrangements aligned with this multilateral framework, in accordance with our respective legal and constitutional requirements – our enduring support to Ukraine as it defends its sovereignty and territorial integrity, rebuilds its economy, protects its citizens, and pursues integration into the Euro-Atlantic community,” the declaration said, adding that those discussions will begin “immediately.”

A joint declaration issued by the G7 lays the groundwork for each nation to negotiate agreements to help Ukraine bolster its military over the long term. Zelenskyy described the initiative as a bridge toward eventual NATO membership and a deterrent against russia. The process will work on “bilateral, long-term security commitments and arrangements towards” three goals.

The first goal is “ensuring a sustainable force capable of defending Ukraine now and deterring russian aggression in the future,” through continued provision of security assistance and modern military equipment, support for Ukraine’s industrial base development, training for forces, intelligence sharing and cooperation, and support for cyber defense, security and resilience initiatives.

The second is “strengthening Ukraine’s economic stability and resilience, including through reconstruction and recovery efforts, to create the conditions conducive to promoting Ukraine’s economic prosperity, including its energy security.” And the third is “providing technical and financial support for Ukraine’s immediate needs stemming from russia’s war as well as to enable Ukraine to continue implementing the effective reform agenda that will support the good governance necessary to advance towards its Euro-Atlantic aspirations.”

The announcement will start a process of bilateral negotiations with Kyiv, National Security Council senior director for Europe Amanda Sloat told reporters.

There will be a “long-term investment in Ukraine’s future force” aimed at “ensuring Ukraine has a sustainable fighting force capable of defending Ukraine now and deterring russian aggression in the future, a strong and stable economy, and the help Ukraine needs to advance the reform agenda to support the good governance necessary to advance Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations,” she said.

“We believe the declaration we will announce today seeks to ensure Ukraine’s future as a free independent, democratic, and sovereign nation. It signals in joint long-term commitment to building a powerful defensive and deterrence force for Ukraine, of course for both stability and for peace. This multi-lateral declaration will send a significant signal to russia that time is not on its side,” Sloat said.

In turn, Zelenskyy offered heartfelt thanks to the U.S. for standing “shoulder to shoulder” with Ukraine from the first days of the war. He also acknowledged criticism facing the US following Biden’s controversial decision last week to send his country cluster munitions.

Defining an end to hostilities is no easy task. Officials have declined to define the goal, which could suggest a negotiated cease-fire or Ukraine reclaiming all occupied territory. Either way, putin would essentially have veto power over Ukraine’s NATO membership by prolonging the conflict.

While a firm date for Ukraine’s accession has not been set, the consent focused on an end to the war, which ironically was not defined. Does that mean a defeat of russia; a Ukrainian victory; a draw that focuses on a line of demilitarization; russia’s capitulation and withdrawal from Ukraine; russian reparations; capture and prosecution of war criminals?

After the summit, russia’s foreign minister sergei lavrov chimed in with a warning that the war won’t end until the West gives up plans to dominate and defeat russia.

The goal of the “US-led collective West” is to strengthen its global hegemony, lavrov told the Kompas newspaper. lavrov is due to attend the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Regional Forum in Jakarta this week, as is U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

“Why doesn’t the armed confrontation in Ukraine come to an end? The answer is very simple – it will continue until the West gives up its plans to preserve its domination and overcome its obsessive desire to inflict on russia a strategic defeat at the hands of its Kyiv puppets,” according to a transcript of the interview published on russia’s foreign ministry website. “For the time being, there are no signs of change in this position.”

All of which indicates that the war won’t end in the foreseeable future. Throughout its history, muscovy/russia has repeatedly invaded Ukraine with the goal of subjugating the country and annihilating the nation. Chances are that it will continue doing so. Does that mean that Ukraine will never join NATO so long as the war lasts because Kyiv certainly can’t throw down its weapons just to accede to the alliance? If Ukraine does become a member at some time in the future, will the NATO allies have to continue sitting on the ramparts, waiting for russia to make another move against Ukraine or the other former captive nations?

So wouldn’t it have been better to allow Ukraine to join now, when russia is weak, crumbling and in disarray?