Good Time to Force Russia to Accept Ukraine’s Peace Terms

After 50 months of observing with trepidation a “neighborhood” war launched by Russia against Ukraine, European nations are finally feeling realistically anxious though not because they could become collateral damage for Moscow. Consequently, they have asked Ukraine to pause its highly successful drone attacks against Russian oil refineries.

The logical question is why?

Apparently, the purse strings that stretch from Ukraine to Russia then to Iran, Israel and the Persian Gulf and finally across Europe are causing real pain as consumers in those countries and are forced to pay a lot more for gasoline and other petroleum-based products than they did earlier this year.

According to Presidential Office Head Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s foreign allies have asked Kyiv to pause its attacks as the US-Israeli war in Iran drives up fuel prices worldwide, he said in an interview published April 4 by Bloomberg.

Oil prices have skyrocketed amid the escalating war in Iran, which is in its sixth week. Energy facilities in the Middle East have been targeted throughout the conflict, while Iran has also shut down the Strait of Hormuz — a key waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply transits.

Budanov told Bloomberg that Ukraine has received requests from its allies to stop its regular campaign of strikes on enemy oil refineries in Russia due to the price surge.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine’s allies, who have been very supportive of Ukraine in its time of great need, have urged him to scale back attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure amid the ongoing global fuel crisis – but that they would only end if Russia stopped targeting Ukraine’s first.

Aggressor Russia has been attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since start of the war in February 2022. In the ensuing months, Ukraine’s military-industrial complex has developed enviable skills in building its own brand of deadly drones. Its efforts have hit Russian bulls’ eyes enough to cause significant pain to anyone buying Russian and Persian petroleum products.

Zelenskyy told journalists in a WhatsApp voice message that, by launching attacks on Russia’s energy system, Ukraine was only responding in kind.

Zelenskyy’s comments come amid a string of long-range Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy sector, including the key oil export terminal at the port of Ust-Luga outside St. Petersburg.

“We have received messages from some of our partners asking about how our responses against Russia’s oil sector – the energy sector – can be reduced,” Zelenskyy said in the voice message. “If Russia is ready not to strike Ukraine's energy, then we’ll respond by not attacking theirs.”

So why Ukraine should listen to cries of “stop” and show mercy to its enemy’s energy lifeline? It seems to me that this could be the useful mechanism that could solve two problems. Yes, given the right circumstances, Kyiv could consider retargeting its drones to hit other Russian targets rather than its oil refineries. But that should be only half of Ukraine’s demand.

In return for such a favorable accommodation, Kyiv should insist that all countries that are suffering the pain of high gasoline prices and other petroleum-based products must put their collective heels on Russia’s throat and demand that it immediately and forever not only stop attacking Ukrainian cities and killing innocent civilians but also pack up and leave Ukraine with appropriate NATO security guarantees.

If not, what has Ukraine got to lose? In the past week Russia has continued to strike its favorite targets of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Mariupol, Zaporizhzhia, Chornobyl, and other towns along with commuter trains, leaving death and destruction in its wake.

No matter how you slice and dice the wasteful Witkof-Kushner negotiations, a cessation of hostilities on Ukraine’s terms would be a win for Ukraine and Europe.