Zelenskyy Tactfully Says End of War is near, but Russian Bombing Stands in the Way

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, after his July Fourth telephone call with President Donald J. Trump, tactfully expressed a positive view about a “real prospect” for ending Russia’s more than four-year war against Ukraine.

However, while this time he overlooked Russia’s deleterious role in the peace process, Zelenskyy did emphasize that “There is a real prospect to end this war and American resolve will have a crucial meaning,” according to official records.

The aggressor’s records reported a “business-like and quite constructive” atmosphere in the 90-minute call between Trump and Putin. According to Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, Trump, as always, reaffirmed his readiness to facilitate a rapid cessation of hostilities. However, Putin used the telephone call to falsely claim that Russian forces are “confidently advancing” on the battlefield, specifically pointing to the contested stronghold of Kostyantynivka in the Donetsk region. Ukraine’s General Staff has strictly denied this claim, calling it “just another Russian lie.” Putin also accused Kyiv and its European allies of trying to escalate the conflict.

While world was watching unproductive diplomacy at work, Russia intensified its aerial assaults across Ukraine. Russia launched a massive UAV and missile barrage against Ukraine: On the night of July 4-5, Russian forces launched a coordinated strike using 125 drones, one Kh-31 anti-radiation missile, and three Kh-59/69 guided air-launched missiles.

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy again cited intelligence warnings of further attacks. He issued an urgent warning to citizens on July 5, stating that Ukrainian intelligence indicates Russia is actively preparing an even larger, massive wave of strikes. Zelenskyy noted that launching heavy strikes immediately following Independence Day and right before a major NATO summit is a signature pattern of Putin’s strategy to exert pressure. He renewed calls to international partners to expedite the delivery of Patriot air defense batteries directly to the front line rather than keeping them in warehouses.

Zelenskyy reported that Ukraine faced approximately 2,200 attack drones, over 1,730 guided aerial bombs, and 106 missiles in just one week. While Ukrainian forces typically intercept over 90% of drones, Zelenskyy stressed the critical lack of anti-ballistic capabilities.

Specifically, he detailed the volume of weaponry deployed by Russian forces over the past seven days, the Ukrainian President reported the following figures:

· Approximately 2,200 attack drones

· More than 1,730 guided aerial bombs (KABs)

· 106 missiles of various types, with nearly half classified as ballistic.

The pattern of these urgent intelligence-backed warnings over the last fortnight highlights a highly intensified period of the air war:

· Warning #1 (Around June 20–21): Zelenskyy warned citizens to strictly heed air raid sirens, stating that intelligence showed Russia had prepared a massive wave of strikes. Shortly after, heavy bombardments struck various regions, including a highly destructive strike in Kyiv that heavily damaged the historic Pechersk Lavra monastery.

· Warning #2 (July 1): Speaking at a press conference in Dublin, Zelenskyy announced he had to cut his travel short and return to Ukraine immediately due to “very unpleasant” intelligence data indicating another massive Russian attack was imminent. This warning was tragically realized just hours later on July 2, when Russia unleashed what Kyiv officials called the heaviest, most massive coordinated strike on the capital since the start of the full-scale invasion, killing over 20 people and hitting residential blocks.

· Warning #3 (Today, July 5): The latest warning, noting that intelligence points to an imminent strike timed precisely to exploit the post-July 4th holiday weekend and create leverage right before the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara.

The sheer frequency of these warnings—three distinct, massive waves predicted in about 15 days—underscores exactly why the diplomatic phone lines were ringing so heavily this weekend, and why the push for active Patriot batteries on the ground has become so desperate. Zelenskyy’s concern is genuine. When a dictator like Putin tells you what he intends to do, like bomb your cities and towns, and kill your citizens, it is a statement of policy, not a bluff. When someone repeatedly shows you and tells you exactly who they are, believing them isn’t cynical; it’s the only baseline for survival.

Interestingly, just today, Vice President JD Vance gave an interview to The Sunday Times where he claimed that the Trump Administration actually believes the Kremlin is “asking for too much” in terms of concessions to end the conflict. In that same interview, Vance argued that Russia’s actual offensive capabilities on the battlefield are ‘negligible and approaching zero” because Ukraine’s defensive strategy has been so effective at grinding them down. Does this mean that the White House is solidly in Ukraine’s court? Time will tell.

So while the rhetoric from the top can often sound baffling – or dangerously naïve – the reality of Putin’s actions speaks for itself. He has not yet fulfilled his goal in Ukraine, that is total destruction or subjugation of the country and people.

Zelenskyy’s observation regarding the telephone call is deeply calculated for the current political moment. With the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, he knows that “American resolve” is the ultimate leverage. By framing peace as a “real prospect” rather than a distant dream, he is actively trying to incentivize the incoming US Administration. It is a tactical move to show that American support isn’t a bottomless investment into a forever war, but rather the final push needed to cross the finish line.

From a purely military and analytical standpoint, there is a realistic foundation to what he’s saying, but it relies entirely on the second half of his sentence. If the US and its allies maintain or accelerate their support – such as deploying the active air defense systems Zelenskyy is begging for – they can continue to grind down Russia’s offensive capabilities. As JD Vance noted in his Sunday Times interview, Ukraine’s defensive strategy has already pushed Russia’s actual offensive capacity to a brutal, costly crawl. The prospect of peace becomes realistic only if Russia realizes it can no longer afford the price of moving forward.

However, as long as Putin continues to read from his rigid imperial script, telling Trump that Russia will not let up on its air campaigns and demanding massive concessions, any immediate end to the war remains firmly in the realm of wishful thinking. Putin is banking on American resolve failing, not succeeding. So far, Trump is playing right into Putin’s game plan.

While Zelenskyy’s words are a realistic description of a potential path forward, the actual execution relies entirely on variables he cannot control. Without that absolute, unwavering Western resolve, it remains a very high-stakes wish. Western Europe, NATO and the former captive nations cannot let up their military and political pressure on Russia or else Ukraine and they will lose.

From a purely diplomatic and analytical standpoint, Zelenskyy is playing a very smart, calculated hand here. He knows exactly who he is dealing with. A few days ago, he publically called the aggressor “Russian scum.” After the intense friction and unpredictable dynamics of past face-to-face meetings – like the highly publicized Oval Office donnybrook last year – Zelenskyy has clearly adjusted his strategy. He understands that trying to publicly back Trump into a corner or flatly contradicting him is a losing game that only risks pushing the US closer to Moscow’s position.

Instead, Zelenskyy is choosing to lower the temperature, speak the language of “prospects and deals,” and keep Trump personally invested. By framing American leadership as the decisive factor that can bring about a “real prospect to end this war,” Zelenskyy is appealing directly to Trump’s desire to be the ultimate dealmaker.

It’s a masterclass in pragmatic diplomacy: you don’t have to agree with someone privately to recognize that, publicly, you absolutely need to keep them on your side of the ledger. For Ukraine, managing the relationship with Washington is just as critical as managing the front line in Donetsk, and Zelenskyy is doing everything he can to ensure that line doesn’t break.

Zelenskyy is playing the diplomatic hand he has been dealt, keeping lines of communication open and maintaining professional decorum to protect his country’s vital strategic relationships. But a polite, diplomatic phone call on a holiday weekend doesn’t rewrite the reality of the situation.

As long as Russian missiles are actively targeting Ukrainian towns, as long as innocent Ukrainians are dying, and as long as the political rhetoric remains highly unpredictable, keeping the skepticism front and center is the only rational approach. History has shown too many times what happens when people celebrate a diplomatic victory before the ink is even dry – or before the actual intent matches the friendly words. It’s a long game, and it’s far too early to assume anyone’s position is locked in.

Zelenskyy still must keep his eyes peeled and his guns primed.