60,000-plus Russian Reasons Why Peace is Failing

With 60,000 fresh Russian troops and associated military hardware stationed on the Ukrainian border and ongoing Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions, why are world leaders and pundits bemoaning the lack of peace, ceasefire and progress in ending what they call the Ukrainian crisis but in reality is the Russo-Ukraine War of 2014-15?

Ukrainian and Russian sources last week confirmed this massive, intimidating buildup of Russian firepower near Ukraine.

First Deputy Chairman of the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Andriy Parubiy said on TV channel 5 on Saturday, March 28, the likelihood of a full-scale Russian attack remains high.

“The likelihood of a full-scale attack by Russian armies is high and remains high. All our intelligence indicates it. There is a concentration of Russian troops on the border and not only in Donetsk and Luhansk but extending up to Kharkiv, a huge expansion of Russian troops is taking place,” he said.

In an interview with “Novoe Vremia” on Friday, March 27, Parubiy, who a couple of weeks ago made the rounds of Capital Hill, updating lawmakers on Russia’s war against Ukraine, predicted that the next invasion could come before May 9 and would be designed to dramatically “demonstrate the might of the Russian army.”

Not only did last week see an escalation of Russian violence against Ukraine, but also a new series of threatening actions against all corners of the world that are setting off alarms among military and civilian officials. Russia has been intensifying the pace of military exercises in Eastern Europe and even the Arctic region.

Bloomberg News reported that Russian bomber aircraft are being sent to Crimea while forces in the Baltics and southern regions have been put on full alert in military exercises ordered by President Vladimir Putin.

Reuters reported that the latest military exercises have taken on a threatening posture. “While the most recent installment is not the largest exercise Russia has conducted, the areas involved and the forces included seem to have been deliberately chosen to send a warning to NATO; the exercise itself seems to simulate a full-scale confrontation with NATO through the forward deployment of nuclear armed submarines, theater ballistic missiles and strategic bomber aircraft. Strategic weapon systems, including assets that are part of Russia's nuclear capabilities, have also been deployed to locations near NATO's borders,” Reuters reported.

The news agency said the more notable systems involved are the Iskander mobile ballistic missiles and fighter aircraft that are being deployed to Kaliningrad, Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers that are being deployed to Crimea, and ballistic missile submarines that have been sent to sea with protective escorts.

The initial announcement about the exercise focused on the role of the Northern Fleet, Reuters reported, explaining the main reason of the drill was to test deployment times to Russian positions in Novaya Zemlya and Franz Josef Land. The agency further said Russia has increased its military presence in the Arctic, and the exercise highlights Russia's plans for the Arctic region.

However, the news service continued, though the obvious focus of the exercises is in the Arctic, operations have extended to include military activities along the Finnish border, the deployment of strategic weapons systems to Kaliningrad and Crimea, and positions throughout the Baltic Fleet, Black Sea Fleet, and in the western and southern military districts.

“This combination lifts the exercise beyond a simple deployment of ground forces and naval exercises in the Arctic and forms a nuclear narrative,” Reuters said.

With an eye toward the war in Ukraine and the faux truce, Reuters noted that “these exercises are an aggressive signal, particularly since they immediately follow Putin’s mysterious disappearance last week.” It also said “Russia has an interest in flexing its military muscle to remind everyone of the havoc it could wreak and to dissuade anyone from taking radical action in Ukraine.”

Reuters and others are inclined to point out that Washington unfortunately has been careful in addressing the war in Ukraine, even delaying the deployment of 300 US troops to western Ukraine as part of a training exercise. For its part, the US government maintains that this deployment is still an option and could order it as early as April. On the positive side, the US Congress favors American military aid for Ukraine.

One of the firmest supporters of Ukraine, Lithuania, as well as other former captive nations in the Baltic region, has been taking visible steps to defend its independence and sovereignty in case Russia crosses its border.

Jonas Vytautas Zukas, Lithuania’s chief of defense, said in several American newspapers Lithuania has learned a few lessons from the war in Ukraine.

According to Zukas, the situation in Ukraine has demonstrated that unconventional threats should be tackled instantly, using suitable military measures, even if martial law has not yet been imposed. The Seimas, Lithuania’s parliament, wisely adopted the Statute on the Use of the Armed Force on December 16, 2014, which proactively states that use of the military is now possible in peacetime when responding to unconventional threats that differ from armed aggression: for example in cases of provocation, attacks by armed groups, armed people crossing the state border etc.

Further, considering Russia’s widespread disinformation campaign, Zukas said another lesson is a better understanding of the importance of the informational war. He asserted that success in the information space plays an important role in an armed conflict. The armed forces and the media must ensure that society has access to objective information, he said. Capabilities are needed to ensure information and cyber-security, strategic communication and anti-propaganda activities.

The Russian war in Ukraine also taught that society – the nation – has to be prepared to act if there is a war, Zukas said. In early 2015 the Ministry of National Defense introduced a publication titled “What We Must Know to Prepare for Extreme Situations and War.” Zukas said a joint mobilization and civic resistance system is being developed. All-important concepts of public-spiritedness and patriotism are currently being promoted, and information about the Lithuanian armed forces and opportunities to undergo military training is also being advertised. Under President Poroshenko, Ukraine has also finally seen the merit of similar public-spiritedness and patriotism.

President of neighboring Estonia Toomas Ilves Hendrick recently said Europe has to have a backup plan that will provide new sanctions against Russia that could make it think twice about launching another war against its neighbors.

Speaking in Brussels, the headquarters of NATO, Ilves said anything could be expected from Russia. If new sanctions against Russian aggression do not stop Putin, EU countries should have a backup plan, he said.

“As for the Ukrainian crisis, it’s about security of the entire Europe rather than of a separate nation. In this connection, Europe must take a clear point of view, show its determination and strength. We are now discussing whether to arm Ukraine or step up sanctions against Russia. If it is decided not to do any of these things, does Europe have Plan B?" said Ilves.

Beyond boots and rifles, a senior Polish general has warned fellow NATO members that Russia will wage “hybrid war” through propaganda and “information aggression” to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region.

Gen. Stanisław Koziej, head of the president’s National Security Bureau, said last week that while many members of NATO are cutting defense budgets, Russia is increasing its defense spending — and aggression — in ways that “must be stopped.”

Latvia fears that a war of words between Russia and the West could degenerate into something worse, with “devastating” consequences, according to its foreign minister.

“I do hope that we all understand that any provocations, any deterioration of the situation, may lead to consequences that would be devastating to everyone, including, of course, to Russia,” Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics told Reuters.

He said a peace plan reached in Minsk in February is floundering, and warned that a “worst case scenario” – the full resumption of hostilities, could not be ruled out.

“But in that case, we should understand that ... there will be grave economic consequences for those who instigate that,” he said, referring to European Union sanctions already imposed on Russia.

“I hope that the Russian leadership in Moscow fully understands that, and is not going to get into irresponsible adventures.”

Beyond Russia’s threats against traditional European targets, there were reports last week that Moscow is eyeing increased subversion in Mexico and South America.

While the White House is not committed to supporting Ukraine with anything more than political and moral support – indeed Ukraine did receive 10 out of 200 camouflage-colored Humvees to ward of Russian invaders – US legislators favor a concrete show of military support for Kyiv.

American lawmakers voted overwhelmingly last Monday to urge President Obama to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons to defend itself against Russian aggression.

The House of Representatives approved the resolution in a broadly bipartisan 348-48 vote, heaping further pressure on the Obama administration to end its delays in providing weapons and other heavy military equipment to Kyiv forces.

The measure urges Obama to provide Ukraine with “lethal defensive weapon systems” that would enhance Ukraine’s ability to “defend their sovereign territory from the unprovoked and continuing aggression of the Russian Federation.”

House Speaker John Boehner described the vote as a call to action, and said Congress broadly supports more military aid. “Without action from this administration, Russia’s aggression will continue to be left unchecked,” he said after the vote.

This action also has the support of top US generals. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, a thought leader in this category, said last Sunday in Brussels the US should consider sending defensive weapons to Ukraine.

“I do not think that any tool of the US or any other nation’s power should necessarily be off the table,” said Breedlove, NATO’s top military commander. “Could it be destabilizing? The answer is yes. Inaction could also be destabilizing.”

Political and military observers have admitted that Vladimir Putin is behaving like Hitler did 75 years ago and that Putin must be stopped before he launches another campaign against an unsuspecting neighbor. Some have correctly elaborated that while a Hitler may have periodically surfaced in individual countries, but in Russia, all of its leaders – tsarist, communist and federal presidents – are imperialists by nature. So why is there inaction?

“If a Russian invasion of the Baltic States could not be deterred or defeated, the North Atlantic Council and the US president would be faced with a very unpleasant choice: conduct a costly counteroffensive and risk nuclear escalation, or abandon the Baltics to renewed subservience to Moscow. Such a catastrophic failure to uphold the mutual defense responsibilities of NATO could cripple or even destroy the North Atlantic alliance, one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s primary goals. It is therefore of paramount importance to deter Russian aggression before it happens,” urged Terrence Kelly in US News & World Report.

Former foreign ministers of Sweden and Poland, Carl Bildt and Radosław Sikorski, warned the EU about the Putin’s warlike intentions concerning Ukraine, but Brussels was asleep, Bildt said in an interview with Radio Liberty last week, according to Ukrainian newspaper Yevropeiska Pravda.

“And then [we should] make certain that we truly help them with all the reforms necessary, because Ukraine is going to go through a tough time and they need our solidarity, sympathy, and support. These things, I think, are the priorities,” Bildt said.

Sensing a threat to its island nation, British officials are also advocating that London urgently rebuild defense capabilities abandoned after the Cold War to face growing global threats, including from Russia, a committee of lawmakers warned on last week. The Commons Defense Committee, which examines the spending and policy of the defense ministry, said nuclear capacity, tanks, warships and aircraft were needed to deter Putin.

“The world is more dangerous and unstable than at any time since the end of the Cold War,” the report said, referring to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and seizure of territory by Islamic State and Boko Haram militants. “But the UK’s current defense assumptions are not sufficient for this changed environment... The UK must rebuild its conventional capacities eroded since the Cold War.”

Russia’s war against Ukraine is not a local issue. It has ramifications for the entire world. Russia has destabilized peace around the world with its belligerence and it must be held responsible for its hostility. Peace and security of the entire planet is at stake.

Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Yuriy Sergeyev, speaking last Friday in Allentown, PA, urged the global community to watch the war in Ukraine because it isn’t a national or regional issue.

“The entire globe has been challenged,” he correctly observed, referring to the Russia's takeover of Crimea. “The whole system of international order has been destroyed.”

With an armed Russia salivating at the prospect of invasion and subjugation, global peace and countries near and far are at risk.

Short of implementing USAF Gen. Curtis LeMay’s Vietnam War era formula for victory by bombing the enemy into the Stone Age, free world leaders today should think relentlessly about how to contain Russian expansionism. First of all, they must emphatically and in unison declare to Russia the detrimental consequences of pursuing its current belligerent policies. The free world should maintain economic and trade sanctions against Russia, Russian businesses and oligarchs. They should initiate a campaign to expel Russia from the UN Security Council, which its representative Vitaly Churkin abuses with lies, fabrications and disinformation. Moscow should also be banished from all global events and shunted to the sidelines of any conference, mission, project or plan. Take away the World Cup 2018 from Moscow. Russia must be universally condemned as an outlaw, aggressive and terrorist state.

If there is any hope of transforming Russia into law-abiding, civilized member of the international community of nations and bringing peace and stability to all countries, then the free world must persuade rich and common, famous, infamous and nameless Russians that their only course to redemption is not via far-right rallies but rather without Vladimir Putin.