And Now, Back to the War

Despite the hopeful expectations surrounding the 2016 NATO Summit in Warsaw, the 16,500-plus word communique, bilateral meetings with Ukrainian officials, numerous references to condemning Russian aggression and its illegal annexation of Crimea, and urging Moscow to return Crimea, mixed with warm expressions of support for Ukraine in its singlehanded battle with Russian soldiers and mercenaries, the Russo-Ukraine War of 2014-16 did not end.

The war, which has so far claimed more than 10,000 Ukrainian lives, is still raging today as fiercely as it was last month.

UAToday.tv reported on July 12 that the death toll is rising in the eastern Ukrainian warzone.

“Two soldiers killed, another four wounded in the Donbas warzone in the past 24 hours. A day before that three servicemen died and 16 were wounded. Ukraine has been hearing this cheerless news almost every day since the war started. The nights in the conflict region are especially violent, militant weapons almost never go silent.

“A Ukrainian soldier, nom de guerre Kozak: ‘They are trying to trick us. At first you think a machine gun or a rifle is firing but then you realize they are using the sound of shooting to cover the mortar blasts.’

“Ukrainian soldiers endured almost a hundred attacks last night. Sector Mariupol, sector Donetsk, sector Horlivka – the most dangerous hotspots in the once peaceful region. The militants are using all kinds of weapons, often resorting to arms, banned by Minsk.”

Here are several excerpts from Ukraine Crisis Media Center:

Kyiv, July 12, 2016. Militants are shelling ATO troop positions in all the sectors. Russia-backed militant groups attacked 55 times yesterday using heavy armor. There were 8, 22 and 25 attacks in the Luhansk, Mariupol and Donetsk sectors correspondingly, informed the spokesman of the Presidential Administration on ATO related issues Colonel Andriy Lysenko at a press briefing at Ukraine Crisis Media Center.

A Large-scale firefight between ATO troops and militants took place in the Luhansk sector in Stanytsia Luhanska between 3 pm and 5 pm yesterday.

Kyiv, July 11, 2016. Militants are active in all the sectors. Number of militants’ attacks went up in the entire ATO zone yesterday. “Enemy’s activity reached the same level some three months ago, in mid-April. Moreover, the fire became denser. Occupants used mortar launchers and cannons over 40 times yesterday,” informed the spokesman of the Presidential Administration on ATO related issues Colonel Andriy Lysenko at a press briefing at Ukraine Crisis Media Center. 

Firefight between Ukrainian troops and militants lasted 90 minutes in Stanytsia Luhanska, Luhansk sector yesterday. Russia-backed militant groups controlling high bank of the Siverskyi Donetsk River, started shooting at Ukrainian positions in the middle of the night.

Kyiv, July 10, 2016. Ukrainian military intelligence registered formation of militant mobile mortar teams on wheels which plan to shell their own positions and residential quarters in order to discredit Ukrainian Armed Forces and create news opportunities for Russian propaganda, informed the spokesman of the Presidential Administration on ATO related issues Colonel Andriy Lysenko at a press briefing at Ukraine Crisis Media Center.
Armed provocations instigated by Russia-backed militant groups became less numerous in Luhansk sector. Militants used grenade launchers, large machine guns and small arms to shoot at ATO troop positions near Stanytsia Luhanska at night. Moreover, insurgents were shooting near Novooleksandrivka and Novozvanivka during the day.

Kyiv, July 9, 2016. The situation in the Donetsk sector in the ATO zone remains the most difficult. Two thirds of all the attacks are conducted using mortar launchers, mostly 120-mm. The situation was the most restless at the Svitlodarsk bulge, northern outskirts of the temporarily occupied Horlivka and in Avdiivka industrial area, informed the spokesman of the Presidential Administration on ATO related issues Colonel Andriy Lysenko at a press briefing at Ukraine Crisis Media Center. “The enemy launched almost 200 mortar shells at Ukrainian positions last night in these areas. Moreover, brief use of mortar launchers was registered in Troitske, Novoselivka Druha, Pisky and Nevelske,” he said. Militants were actively using armor at the Svitlodarsk bulge, namely in the vicinity of Luhanske settlement. A sniper was active there as well.

Kyiv, July 8, 2016. The total number of explosions the SMM recorded – just one component of ceasefire violations – tripled compared to the previous week, reaching over 3,000, reported Alexander Hug, First Deputy Chief Monitor of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine at the press-briefing at Ukraine Crisis Media Center.

The spike in violence was especially pronounced on the Svitlodarsk-Debaltseve road, with OSCE recording a 700 percent increase in ceasefire violations compared to the previous week.

Twenty-eight NATO members gathered in the Polish capital, an appropriate free world nod to a former captive nation, to assess global issues since the last iteration. The Russian war in Ukraine, though it wasn’t called that, was high on their list but so were other security issues such as ISIS. The final communique was long on words but short on proposed actions to end the war and bring peace, security and stability to the region.

News media highlighted the hopeful side of the summit by focusing on NATO’s indisputable collective condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its support for Ukraine. Some of the headlines that I found include:

“NATO Approves Assistance Package for Ukraine, Condemns Russian Aggression”

“Pledges of Continued Support for Ukraine at NATO summit”

“NATO Leaders Confirm Strong Support for Ukraine”

“NATO Stands in ‘Solidarity’ with Ukraine, Condemns Russia’s War as Warsaw Summit Ends”

As encouraging and needed as these headlines are, I believe that Gabriela Baczynska of Reuters was more on the mark with her assessment.

In a story headlined “Ukraine Wins Pat on the Back – but Little More from NATO Summit,” Baczynska wrote: “Ukraine won promises of continued support at a NATO summit on Saturday but the prospect of Kyiv’s eventual membership of the US-led military alliance seemed as distant as ever as the West seeks a tentative rapprochement with Russia.”

Sad but true.

The NATO Summit condemned Russian aggression against Ukraine and demanded that it abide by the Minsk accords. NATO, the European Union, the US and Canada, and UN have been repeating this for more than two years without any effects. Russian troops and armament as well as mercenary terrorists continue crossing Ukraine’s border, attempting to annex at least two Ukrainian oblasts just like it did Crimea.

The summit participants condemned Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula and emphasized that NATO will never recognize this illegal occupation. While words of denunciation are recorded for history’s sake, Russia is turning the former Ukrainian resort community into an arsenal of nuclear and conventional weapons that is strategically situated in warm waters with easy access to the Mediterranean.

Furthermore, NATO said: “Russia bears full responsibility for the serious deterioration of the human rights situation on the Crimean peninsula, in particular the discrimination against the Crimean Tatars and other members of local communities. We demand that the Russian de facto authorities take the necessary measures to ensure the safety, rights, and freedoms of everyone living on the peninsula. International monitoring structures must be allowed to carry out their essential work in view of the protection of human rights. We condemn Russia’s ongoing and wide-ranging military build-up in Crimea, and are concerned by Russia’s efforts and stated plans for further military build-up in the Black Sea region.”

Again, this has been said on numerous occasions by a host of regional, national and global leaders. Russia has not budged.

Indeed, NATO was supportive of Ukraine: “An independent, sovereign, and stable Ukraine, firmly committed to democracy and the rule of law, is key to Euro-Atlantic security.  We stand firm in our support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders and Ukraine’s right to decide its own future and foreign policy course free from outside interference, as set out in the Helsinki Final Act.  We strongly condemn Russia’s aggressive actions against Ukraine and its continued violation of international law and its international obligations, which have serious implications for the stability and security of the entire Euro-Atlantic area.”

Noting that Ukraine is a “long-standing and distinctive partner of the Alliance,” NATO praised Kyiv for its internal achievements and it encouraged the Poroshenko Administration to stay committed to its reforms.

The NATO members praised Ukraine for its military accomplishments and participation in the alliance’s projects. They welcomed Ukraine’s intent to further deepen its Distinctive Partnership with NATO, as well as its past and present contributions to NATO-led operations and the NATO Response Force even while it has been defending itself against Russia’s aggressive actions. Recognition that Ukraine is defending itself against Russia is noted, however, it should be pointed out that Kyiv is defending its country singlehandedly. Ukrainian soldiers are also fighting and dying on the frontlines of defending the former captive nations and Europe.

The summit communique continued: “Ukraine’s choice to adopt and implement NATO principles and standards, for which its Strategic Defense Bulletin provides a roadmap, will promote greater interoperability between our forces.  The Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian Brigade is an important element of this effort.  It will also enhance Ukraine’s ability to better provide for its own security, through functioning security and defense institutions under civilian democratic control that are accountable, sustainable, and effective.”

The brigade is more than an “important element,” it is an essential component of the self-defense strategy the former captive nations. If NATO remains lukewarm in defending them against any Russian threat, then this brigade will have to fill in the void.

The summit participants called on all signatories to the Minks accords to completely live up to their commitments, but they pointed out that Russia “bears significant responsibility” for violations.

“Despite its declared commitment to the Minsk Agreements, Russia continues its deliberate destabilization of eastern Ukraine, in violation of international law.  Russia continues to provide weapons, equipment, and personnel, as well as financial and other assistance to militant groups, and to intervene militarily in the conflict. We are extremely concerned by the destabilization and deteriorating security situation in eastern Ukraine. We call on Russia to desist from aggressive actions and to use its considerable influence over the militants to meet their commitments in full, especially to allow for the observation of the ceasefire regime, implementation of confidence-building measures, and disarmament.”

These observations merely repeat the earlier condemnations and pleas, without offering anything new, not even the suggestion of a threat or a deadline.

Oddly, in view of Russia’s war against Ukraine, its violation of UN Charter and resolutions, international law, and persecution of human and religious rights of its citizens, NATO maintains its commitment to finding a peaceful solution to Russia’s “conflict” with Ukraine and “reintegration” of seized Ukrainian territories.

Furthermore, the alliance will continue communicating “clearly our positions, with the crisis in and around Ukraine being, in current circumstances, the first topic on our agenda.  We remain open to a periodic, focused and meaningful dialogue with a Russia.”

The alliance has been talking with Russia for more than two years without any change in Moscow’s attitude. Russia is conducting its foreign relations with impunity.

“The Alliance does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia. But we cannot and will not compromise on the principles on which our Alliance and security in Europe and North America rest. NATO will continue to be transparent, predictable and resolute,” it continued.

In other words, Putin and the Kremlin can do what they want and suffer nothing more than a tongue lashing. Apparently, even the much-warranted sanctions are not having an effect.

True appreciation of Russia’s regional and global threat is unfortunately lost on NATO and its free world partners. But, the view from the former captive nations is diametrically different.

President of Lithuania Dalia Grybauskaite is an ardent advocate of Ukraine and disparager of Russia. Grybauskaite said in an interview with Spiegel that she doesn’t exclude a Russian invasion in Baltics. She said the West has to take Putin's paranoia seriously, as the Russian president considers all post-Soviet countries his property.

“Putin’s idea is to return all states of the former Soviet Union under Russia's influence,” the Lithuanian president said. “He wants to restore the old Russia’s former size. This is his paranoia, and we have to take it seriously.

Grybauskaite added the Kremlin is using military means, propaganda, economic pressure where it sees weak points.

Concessions to Moscow, including even the hint of a roll-back of anti-Russian sanctions, would increase the threat to Europe’s security, said Grybauskaite commenting on the European Union’s decision to extend for another six months the economic sanctions against Russia.

“Any indulgence will only encourage Russia’s aggressive policy and increase the threat to the security of Ukraine and the whole Europe,” Grybauskaite was quoted as saying by her press office.

Disunity among the EU and NATO partners is also fodder for Russia’s aggressive ambitions. The US and Canada are immovable in their commitments to Ukraine and major EU countries are at least supportive. Only demurring France is the weak link. On Friday, July 8, French President Francois Hollande said: “NATO has no role at all to be saying what Europe’s relations with Russia should be. For France, Russia is not an adversary, not a threat. Russia is a partner which, it is true, may sometimes, and we have seen that in Ukraine, use force, which we have condemned when it annexed Crimea.”

Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Ukraine’s vice-premier for European Integration, has warned the West that it will make a serious mistake if it doesn’t treat seriously the security environment in the region. “The West needs to make a very strategic, long-term choice and not look for any excuses today to turn away from Ukraine,” she said.

Without going back and forth many times, NATO and the free world would do better if they repeated President Poroshenko’s terse advice about how to bring the Russo-Ukraine War of 2014-16 to an end.

After the briefing at the NATO summit in Warsaw, Russian journalists came to the Ukrainian president asking when the elections will be held in Donbas.

Poroshenko stopped in front of them and cold-heartedly replied:

“As soon as Russians will cease killing Ukrainians, as soon as Russian occupation troops will withdraw from the territory of Ukraine.”

NATO reluctantly patted Ukraine on its head like a nuisance-child, hoping that it would go away. But the alliance is the only serious global venue that can protect Ukraine and the other x-captive nations from Russian aggression so it can’t leave its doorstep until it’s allowed it.