The March on Moscow that Wasn’t

After a day of vitriolic accusations, threats, denunciations and an actual military threat against moscow, the heart of mother russia, all of which culminated months of incendiary diatribe, is it possible that the two Russian arch nemeses kissed and made up?

I, for one, don’t believe it. Let bygones be bygones is not part of the russian mindset.

As Churchill famously observed about russia, it is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. What is up, is down; what’s black is white; what’s hot is cold. But the historical constant and truth is that russia is evil, aggressive, vicious and deceitful as it obnoxiously disregards outsiders’ views about what it is thinking and doing. On any given Saturday putin will look you in the eye and tell convincingly it’s Monday.

Is it possible that prigozhin had an epiphany while his wagner cutthroats were heading to moscow, where everyone from putin to the lowly woman sweeping streets felt at least menaced by the possibility of an invasion? So the bellicose former hotdog peddler turned military commander ordered his troops to make an about face just a few dozen kilometers from an historic victory.

One of odd elements of this surreal development is that belarus’ strongman lukashenko, recognized as not being the sharpest knife in the drawer who doesn’t do anything without putin’s nod, hatched a plan that would de-escalate the tension. The gambit called for prigozhin’s army to turn around while the wagner boss and his entourage would be given safe haven in belarus and all charges against them would be dropped. Other wagnerites would be offered contracts in the Russian army.

According to the Associated Press, prigozhin, not known for being a humanitarian, acquiesced. Here’s a part of its story moved yesterday, June 24:

 “The greatest challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin in his more than two decades in power fizzled out relatively peacefully Saturday after the rebellious mercenary commander who ordered his troops to march on Moscow abruptly reached a deal with the Kremlin to go into exile and sounded the retreat.

“The dramatic if brief revolt shifted the landscape for the Kremlin and the 16-month-old war in Ukraine and prompted Russia to pull soldiers back from the battlefield to defend the capital, a stunning recognition of the threat posed by Wagner Group soldiers under the command of Yevgeny Prigozhin.

“Under the deal announced by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Prigozhin will go to neighboring Belarus and charges of mounting an armed rebellion will be dropped. The government said it also would not prosecute fighters who took part, while those who did not join in were to be offered contracts by the Defense Ministry.”

The AP is a credible news service but the story itself is hooey. After mutually threatening each other with death and destruction, denouncing one another for betraying mother russia, and one blaming the other for failing to defeat Ukraine, is the free world to believe that putin and prigozhin are long lost, back slapping buddies?

Indeed there is something simmering far below the surface. The gnawing question is what’s hiding behind the “signature or brains” conversation between prigozhin and aleksandr “Fredo” lukashenko. Extra hotdog wagons? Will putin really forgive and forget prigozhin’s crimes and insults? After all, in 23 years russia’s dictator has killed many opponents in russia and beyond for comparatively smaller crimes. Will prigozhin’s ex-con mercenaries abandon attempts to rescue their leader, who loudly declared just a few hours earlier that they will never surrender?

None of this makes sense in a country consisting of an ersatz nation, where leaders have been known to murder their way to power and remain there the same way.

All of this bodes ill for the future of russia. After 16 months of the latest iteration of russia’s war against Ukraine, many officials, scholars and pundits have been asking how it will end. Is it possible that a defeated russia will be ripe for decolonization and dismemberment? The possibility of an armed insurrection was discounted.

Prigozhin’s rebellion demonstrated that despite tyranny, ruthlessness, and a strong fist, russia and putin are not unbeatable. Cracks in the Kremlin have appeared. The emperor is naked, russia is weaker than thought and any ambitious local or national capo can take a poke at it.

And it should be understood that in russia no one reaches the corner office without a network of backers. Including prigozhin. Yes, he was a hotdog peddler, then a restaurateur, then a government caterer, putin’s best friend ever, organizer of the wagner killers, and finally a viable threat to putin’s hegemony. He does have his supporters who may have egged him on, offering support and encouragement, and bankrolling his army of convicts, which couldn’t have been done on hotdog sales. Consequently, how will they react to prigozhin’s sudden surrender, which leaves them exposed in a country that is known for bloody revenge? Remember how Don Corleone eliminated his enemies and traitors?

Indeed, Ukrainians the world over were watching with glee events unfold in russia. The ubiquitous joke was “pass the popcorn, please.” Russia’s headaches could provide Ukraine with a respite in the war, allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to continue forcibly advancing against russian positions in the east and perhaps driving the terrorists out of Ukraine.

However, sadly, as the saying goes, a dead wasp can bite again. On the morning of prigozhin’s march on moscow, russian rockets hit a 20-plus story apartment building in Kyiv, killing three people and wounding a dozen.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy pointed out that prigozhin revealed that russia is not only weak but leaderless since putin is not to be found. Reports said that he left moscow in a hurry for his bunker in the Urals.

On Sunday, June 25, Zelenskyy made this video statement that was visible on many platforms:

“Today is a day when there should definitely be no silence. And leadership is definitely needed.

“Today the world saw that the masters of russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Just complete chaos. Complete lack of any predictability. And this is on russian territory, which is full of weapons.

“The world should not be afraid. We know what protects us. Only our unity. Ukraine will definitely be able to protect Europe from any russian forces – and it does not matter who commands them. We will protect. The security of the eastern flank of Europe depends only on our defense. And that is why every manifestation of support for our defense is support for your defense, everyone in the free world.

“I will say in Russian. The man from the kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself. I am sure that he is no longer in moscow. He calls somewhere, asks for something there... He knows what he is afraid of, because he himself created this threat. All evil, all losses, all hatred - he spreads it himself. And the longer he can run between his bunkers, the more you will lose everything... everything connected with russia.

“What will we, Ukrainians, do? We will defend our country. We will defend our freedom. We will not be silent and we will not be inactive. We know how to win - and it will happen. Our victory in this war will be clear.

“And what will you do?

“The longer your troops stay on Ukrainian soil, the more destruction they will bring to russia. The longer this person is in the kremlin, the more disasters there will be.”

Russia is in a historical turmoil, which should please the free world regardless of unfounded fears of whose finger will appear on the nuclear button. In russia, that is an ever-present possibility.

Here are a few of my conclusions: Don putin will sooner or later have his expected revenge against prigozhin while he’s vacationing in belarus thanks to “Fredo” lukashenko; prigozhin and lukashenko have already set the wheels in motion to eliminate putin; and what will the oligarchs in both camps do when they fully comprehend that the federal system that they’ve been supporting is a rotten tree stump that is further threatened by the ill-fated, never ending war in Ukraine.

According to social media posts in the evil empire, the name of nikolai platonovich patrushev has surfaced as another game changer. He is a russian politician, security officer and intelligence officer who has served as the secretary of the Security Council of russia since 2008. He previously served as the director of the Federal Security Service from 1999 to 2008.

That’s the end of round one with putin winning on points. But the fight isn’t over.