When Hypotheticals become Reality

Thanks to a social media follower, Oleg Kotsour, I was reminded of an incident that occurred years ago when I was a young journalist, relatively speaking, and I had the opportunity to ask President Bill Clinton a question about US-Ukraine relations.

The event is meaningful because of the history that has transpired before and since that press conference and how hypotheticals can become reality and like the shark in “Jaws” it swims up and bites you on the ass.

The setting: A presidential press conference on March 4, 1994, at the White House with President Clinton and President Leonid Kravchuk. I was a correspondent with The National Tribune, a Ukrainian American newspaper based in New York City.

It was taking place amid the euphoria of Ukraine’s agreement to eliminate its nuclear arsenal, sadly in favor of Russia. Earlier that year, the Verkhovna Rada approved the trilateral agreement and unconditionally ratified the START Treaty and the Lisbon Protocol. Then, Ukraine joined the NATO Partnership for Peace. Ironically, Ukraine’s accession to NATO continues to be stuck in the mud despite fulfilling all requirements and Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. Boris Yeltsin at the time was president of Russia, some six years before Vladimir Putin was to assume the corner office in the Kremlin.

“In our meeting today I strongly reaffirmed American support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. I urged President Kravchuk to continue to work to achieve Ukraine’s accession to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,” Clinton assured.

The two presidents shared views on developments in Russia and their impact on Ukraine. “We discussed ways to expand cooperation between our two nations. At the core of our agenda is developing a closer economic relationship. While Ukraine is going through a difficult period of transition, it remains a nation with enormous economic potential, endowed with abundant natural resources and human talent,” Clinton observed three decades ago.

Clinton expressed his view that the best way to develop the full measure of these resources, Ukraine’s most promising future clearly lies with market reform. “That’s why I was pleased that President Kravchuk today expressed his determination to move forward toward comprehensive market reform,” he added.

Clinton also said, “As Ukraine proceeds with reform, the United States is prepared to mobilize support from the G-7 nations and from international financial institutions. We’re also prepared to increase our bilateral economic assistance to $350 million this year for privatization, small business creation, and other priorities, and to help Ukraine dismantle nuclear weapons we've committed $350 million in Nunn-Lugar funds. Total US assistance available to Ukraine this year will therefore be $700 million. This represents a major increased commitment to an important friend in the region.”

Life for newly independent Ukraine then was not worry free. In addition to centuries of Russian invasions, war and subjugation, Moscow was not pleased that on August 24, 1991, Ukraine finally declared its independence and broke loose from its yoke.

Not being pleased with the course of the questions and answers, I posed two of my own which dealt with American support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine in case Russia seizes Crimea and will the reemergence of Russian imperialism, which was previously cited in the bilateral discussions, harm Ukraine?

President Clinton observed: “Well, the United States supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine, and I personally have been very impressed that all the parties involved in the Crimean issue seem to be very responsible in their comments and their policies recently, so I think you are asking me a hypothetical which doesn’t seem too probable in light of the policies and the statements which have been made.”

Watch the C-Span link that I included at the conclusion of this post.

Since then that hypothetical in the minds of American officials but not historical records became an ironic reality. In early 2014 Russia invaded Ukraine and occupied Crimea and later than spring it invaded and occupied the Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk. Eight years later Moscow invaded Ukraine and sparked the first war in Europe since the end of World War Two that rages until today.

This scenario, that plagues the world affairs, harkens back to a question posed during the recent XXIII Congress of Ukrainian Americans – the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America – that was held in Philadelphia. Michael Sawkiw Jr., director of the Ukrainian National Information Service (UNIS) who would be elected UCCA president at that conclave, posed a question to a group of panelists discussing the war about what should be done to prevent Russia from ever invading Ukraine again.

Outside of giving Ukraine NATO membership and continually raising awareness about the never ending Russian desire to invade and subjugate all independent countries in its so-called near abroad, the international community should never allow the free world to forget about Russian imperialism and its individual and collective victims.

It has been an intellectual discussion about why were the allies successful in defeating Hitler’s Nazi war machine in 1945? On the surface, there’s no difference. A saber-rattling dictator threatens his near abroad, invades weak Poland and triggers a bloody European war that ends in victory for the allies some six years later.

However, World War Two became everyone’s war. Everyone had a stake in it so everyone anted up. Everyone equally wanted to end the war with an allied victory, Nazi defeat in order to restore peace, stability and harmony, and bring home the boys.

The stakes aren’t identical. Ukrainian allies, especially its near aboard that know the meaning of Russian imperialism, subjugation and repression, broadly support Ukraine and actively strive for Russia’s defeat and Ukraine’s victory. But still something is missing from this puzzle that keeps the free world from vigorously committing itself to ending this war. Is it local boys’ blood? Is it accession to NATO? Right now its Ukraine’s war but it must become the world’s war like it did eight decades ago. Everyone should have a stake in its conclusion. The farther the allies are from Ukraine, the more passive is their support, and the more they or some of their citizens need to be convinced that what is happening in Ukraine could happen on the streets of New York.

The Washington cannot afford to be gullible and naive in its relations with Moscow. The New York Post wrote in its October 19 edition that Putin outsmarted three US presidents. That was kind. Moscow has been outwitting America for decades.

Russians have always lived up to our worst expectations of their behavior. Ukrainian towns, farms, infrastructure and industries have been destroyed. Civilian men, women and children have been targeted for death. Dead bodies, burned out, rusting tanks, trucks and jeeps, unexploded ordnance and missiles pollute wheat fields and threaten the lives of farmers and their children, while unknown chemicals, petroleum and other liquid contaminants will seep deep into the underground aquifers.

Ukraine is not isolated on the map of Europe. The hypothetical that Bill Clinton discounted has become a reality. Now Europe’s health and existence are threatened. So for the good of mankind, it’s time for Europe and the free world to ante up and change reality on the planet. Supplying weapons that merely give Ukraine time to persevere and survive is insufficient. It’s time to destroy Russia’s evil.

https://x.com/OlegKostour/status/1847871877559308806?s=19